Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's recent narrowing trade surplus raises market concerns, potentially impacting economic growth in Q4 2025 and dragging down the current account and overall GDP performance [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Indicators - CIMB economists warn that the trend of a narrowing trade surplus may suppress economic growth in Q4 2025 [1] - In November 2025, Malaysia's capital goods imports surged by 56.8% year-on-year, indicating strong domestic fixed asset investment [1] - Despite external trade pressures, investment activities driven by domestic demand are providing significant economic support [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector is in an upward cycle, with electrical and electronic product exports maintaining double-digit growth, which may help offset the downward risks from commodity price fluctuations [1] - CIMB maintains its GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 3: Trade Resilience - Despite the short-term challenges posed by a narrowing trade surplus, CIMB believes that Malaysia's overall trade fundamentals remain resilient [1] - The increasing proportion of high-value-added products in the export structure and active manufacturing investment are seen as key drivers supporting mid-term growth [1]

联昌国际强调，科技领域正处于上升周期，电气与电子产品出口维持两位数增长，有望部分抵消大宗商 品价格波动带来的下行风险。基于上述因素，该机构维持对马来西亚2025年全年GDP增长4.5%的预测 不变。 尽管贸易顺差收窄带来短期挑战，联昌国际仍认为马来西亚整体贸易基本面具备韧性。出口结构中高附 加值产品占比提升，以及制造业投资活跃，被视为支撑中期增长的关键动力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月22日电马来西亚近期贸易顺差收窄现象引发市场关注。联昌国际（CIMB）经济学家 警示，这一趋势可能对2025年第四季度经济增长构成抑制，或拖累当季经常账户及整体GDP表现。 根据最新数据，2025年11月马来西亚资本品进口同比大幅增长56.8%，显示国内固定资产投资保持强劲 势头。分析指出，尽管外部贸易环境承压，但内需驱动的投资活动正为经济提供重要缓冲。 ...