1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, and the recent increase in Brazil's crushing volume, especially with a sugar - making ratio above 55%, has suppressed international sugar prices. In China, apart from a large amount of imports in recent months, consumption has declined year - on - year, and the expected increase in production in the new crushing season has raised market concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling sugar prices, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5600 - 5650 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR511C5600) at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5450 - 5500 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR511P5400) at 20 - 25 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - High expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons, increased crushing volume and high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, large imports in China, decreased consumption, and expected production increase in the new crushing season are suppressing sugar prices [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: India's 2024/25 crushing season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption in 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol and biodiesel. Trump said Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive again, and Pepsi may follow [5]. - **利空 Factors**: In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased despite less cane input. Analysts expect Brazil's 25/26 crushing season's sugar production to increase by 5% to 46 million tons. Thailand's 24/25 crushing season's production is expected to reach 10.39 million tons. India's early monsoon may lead to a strong production recovery in the 25/26 crushing season. China's sugar imports in July increased significantly, and syrup imports also had some changes. Brazil's mid - southern region had a large increase in sugar production in the first half of August. China's sugar sales and inventory data show some trends [5][6][7][8]. 3.4 Price Data - **Base Difference**: On September 10, 2025, the base differences between different regions and futures contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [9]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices such as SR01 - SR11 and spreads between different contracts had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: Spot prices in regions like Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao, as well as regional spreads, had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [11]. - **Sugar Import Price**: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, and the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar had daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [12][13].

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar - making season, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil and a high sugar - to - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season sugar production in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger with a short - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5900 - 6000 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 25% ratio at 40 - 50 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5750 - 5800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5800) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's slow production progress and high sugar - to - ethanol ratio lead to an increasing expectation of reduced production, causing price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger due to the open profit window for out - of - quota imports [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Domestic Sales and Inventory**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. June's single - month sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [6]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crush of 206.198 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.747 billion tons (14.06%); cane ATR was 122.19 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.14 kg/ton year - on - year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points year - on - year; cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.639 billion liters (14.81%); and cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.036 million tons (14.25%) [6]. - **Import Reduction**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 10.35 million tons [8]. - **Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [8]. - **Market Demand**: Trump announced that Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again and launch new sugar - containing cola, and PepsiCo is also willing to enter the sugar - containing cola market if there is demand [9]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Production**: In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crush was 485.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.847 million tons; mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: Analysts at JOB expect Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9]. - **Thai Production Forecast**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [9]. - **Indian Production Forecast**: India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane - planting areas in major producing regions, and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price [9]. - **Import Volume**: In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the profit for out - of - quota imports is open [9]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Base Difference**: On July 25, 2025, the base differences between Nanning and various futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and between Kunming and various futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their spreads were presented. For example, SR01 closed at 5706, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a weekly increase of 0.88% [11]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao and their regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, Nanning's price was 6050, with no daily or weekly change [12]. - **Import Price**: On July 25, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices (Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou sugar) showed different daily and weekly changes [13].