On the dividend front, Pepsi's 4% dividend yield is impressive. But I'd argue the company's 53-year track record of raising its dividend is even more impressive.Despite concerns that the company's business model is inherently cyclical, we've seen robust sales through past down markets. Thus, I'd argue his is a dividend stock with a solid defensive tilt.Pepsi's upside in the past has come from immense pricing power, which I'd argue hasn't gone away. The ability for Pepsi to raise prices on its core snack bus ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Hold" rating to PepsiCo (PEP.US) with a target price of $165, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $203.58 billion and a 52-week stock price range of $177.50 to $127.60 [1] Financial Summary - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2028 are $8.16, $8.12, $8.55, and $9.07, respectively, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 18.6x to 16.6x [1] - Dividend yield is projected to increase from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2028, indicating long-term return potential [1] Market Strategy - PepsiCo's Q4 EPS is expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, driven by productivity improvements, accelerated growth in international beverage business, currency advantages, and cost control [1] - Specific measures include the closure of two factories and a reduction of 7,000 employees in the North American snacks business to enhance automation levels [1] - The North American beverage business is addressing overcapacity issues through manufacturing and distribution adjustments [1] - The global capability center, although starting later, has significantly optimized labor and automation efficiency [1] Marketing and Sales Performance - Although marketing expenditure as a percentage of sales has slightly decreased, the company has maintained advertising effectiveness through productivity improvements and optimized digital spending [1] - International beverage sales volume declined by 5% year-over-year in Q3, but growth is expected to resume in Q4, with international business projected to contribute 40% of total revenue in the long term [1] Valuation Analysis - The target price is based on a 2027 P/E ratio of 18x, which is approximately a 10% discount compared to peers like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, primarily due to weak market share trends in the U.S. and potential reinvestment needs [2] - This discount is partially offset by productivity improvements and international growth potential [2] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include high-profit contributions from international business, margin expansion in North American beverages driven by product portfolio reshaping, and cost curve optimization in the snacks business through reduced fixed costs [2] Risk Factors - Upside risks include recovery in snack revenue, strong performance in international business, margin improvement, and recovery of market share in North American beverages [2] - Downside risks involve insufficient reinvestment returns, macroeconomic fluctuations, slow recovery in North American business volume, commodity and currency volatility, continued weakness in beverage market share, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on consumer behavior [2]

Core Insights - PepsiCo's stock price increased by 4.23% on October 9, indicating renewed market interest after a period of decline, although the intraday low reached its lowest point since August 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges for the company [1] - The company's Q3 financial report exceeded market expectations, but the North American snack business faced a slowdown, with food revenue declining by 3% and sales down by 4% [1][2] - Activist investor Elliott Management purchased $4 billion worth of PepsiCo shares, urging the company to streamline its snack product portfolio and refocus on core brands, adding pressure for decisive action in a rapidly changing market [1] Financial Performance - North American snack business revenue decreased by 3%, and sales fell by 4%, prompting significant reforms including layoffs and potential factory and warehouse closures [1] - Despite challenges in the U.S. market, international sales, particularly in Latin America and Asia, showed resilience, partially offsetting North America's weakness [2] - The North American beverage segment showed signs of recovery with a 2% growth, marking the highest growth rate in nearly two years [2] Strategic Adjustments - PepsiCo is actively adjusting its product portfolio to meet changing consumer demands, planning to eliminate artificial flavors from snacks and increase investment in healthier snack brands [1] - The company aims to introduce more dietary fiber, whole grain, and protein products, alongside innovative packaging and new product launches to enhance market competitiveness [1] - Management changes are underway, with the current CFO Jamie Coffield retiring and Steve Schmidt from Walmart taking over, reflecting the company's efforts to adapt to internal and external pressures [2] Transformation Phase - PepsiCo is undergoing a significant transformation phase, mobilizing a series of strategic measures to address challenges posed by changing consumer demands and investor pressures [2] - Investors are advised to monitor the company's financial metrics and market strategies closely in this uncertain environment [2]