Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Hold" rating to PepsiCo (PEP.US) with a target price of $165, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately $203.58 billion and a 52-week stock price range of $177.50 to $127.60 [1] Financial Summary - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for fiscal years 2025 to 2028 are $8.16, $8.12, $8.55, and $9.07, respectively, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 18.6x to 16.6x [1] - Dividend yield is projected to increase from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2028, indicating long-term return potential [1] Market Strategy - PepsiCo's Q4 EPS is expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth, driven by productivity improvements, accelerated growth in international beverage business, currency advantages, and cost control [1] - Specific measures include the closure of two factories and a reduction of 7,000 employees in the North American snacks business to enhance automation levels [1] - The North American beverage business is addressing overcapacity issues through manufacturing and distribution adjustments [1] - The global capability center, although starting later, has significantly optimized labor and automation efficiency [1] Marketing and Sales Performance - Although marketing expenditure as a percentage of sales has slightly decreased, the company has maintained advertising effectiveness through productivity improvements and optimized digital spending [1] - International beverage sales volume declined by 5% year-over-year in Q3, but growth is expected to resume in Q4, with international business projected to contribute 40% of total revenue in the long term [1] Valuation Analysis - The target price is based on a 2027 P/E ratio of 18x, which is approximately a 10% discount compared to peers like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, primarily due to weak market share trends in the U.S. and potential reinvestment needs [2] - This discount is partially offset by productivity improvements and international growth potential [2] Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include high-profit contributions from international business, margin expansion in North American beverages driven by product portfolio reshaping, and cost curve optimization in the snacks business through reduced fixed costs [2] Risk Factors - Upside risks include recovery in snack revenue, strong performance in international business, margin improvement, and recovery of market share in North American beverages [2] - Downside risks involve insufficient reinvestment returns, macroeconomic fluctuations, slow recovery in North American business volume, commodity and currency volatility, continued weakness in beverage market share, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on consumer behavior [2]

来源：市场资讯 尽管美国市场的零食业务表现欠佳，但国际业务的韧性为百事带来了新的希望。特别是在拉丁美洲和亚 洲市场，百事的销售取得了增长，部分抵消了北美市场疲软的影响。北美饮料业务板块则表现出复苏迹 象，实现了2%的增长，创下近两年以来的最高增速。 百事的管理层也在发生变动，以适应新挑战。现任首席财务官杰米・考菲尔德即将退休，由沃尔玛的史 蒂夫・施密特接任。这一人事变动显示出百事在面临内外部压力时，力求通过管理层的调整来推动下一 步发展。 综合来看，百事公司正处于一个重要的转型期，面对消费需求的变化及投资者的压力，公司动员了一系 列战略措施来应对这些挑战。在这样一个充满不确定性的市场环境中，投资者需谨慎看待百事的中长期 表现，并关注其财务指标及市场策略的后续调整。 近期，百事公司公布了其第三季度财务报告，尽管整体业绩超出市场预期，但北美市场的零食业务仍然 面临增长放缓的问题。具体来说，北美地区食品业务的营收下降了3%，而销量则下降了4%。为应对这 一现状，百事公司正在进行一系列重大改革，包括在菲多利业务网络中裁员，预计将有更多的工厂和仓 库关闭计划。 此外，激进投资者埃利奥特投资管理公司近期购入了百事公司价值 ...