最近总能听到"AI"这俩字母在耳边嗡嗡响？从硅谷到华尔街，再到咱们老百姓的饭桌上，人工智能这事儿是彻底火了。特别是美国那些科技巨头，一个个跟 打了鸡血似的，疯狂地往AI里砸钱。 这架势，搞得全球人民都盯着看：这股AI投资热潮，到底是能把美国经济这艘大船稳稳托住的"定海神针"，还是迟早要破裂的"海市蜃楼"？更要命的是，这 场烧钱大戏，到了2026年，还能不能继续演下去？ 说实话，要弄明白这事儿，咱们得先扒一扒这AI投资的真面目。过去咱们总觉得，美国经济能跑得这么欢，主要靠的是老百姓花钱消费，毕竟消费在他们 的GDP里占了大头。可今年上半年，数据一出来，把不少人都惊呆了！AI相关的投资，竟然给经济增长贡献了整整1个百分点！这数字，几乎快赶上居民消 费的贡献了。 更让你意想不到的是，AI现在简直成了股市的"发动机"！那些在AI上大把砸钱的巨头公司，它们的资本开支占了标普500指数的近三分之一，而这些公司的 股价，从去年到现在，已经涨了将近四倍！你说说看，这钱砸得越猛，股价飞得越高，这巧合背后，藏着啥秘密？ 不过，话又说回来，这根看似坚挺的"顶梁柱"啊，其实多少也掺了点"水分"。你想想，美国搞AI，得买各种高科技设备 ...

美联储米兰：预计未来生产率将提高，认为放松监管将有力推动生产率提升。 来源：滚动播报 ...

从财务数据看，大摩预测2025至2028财年每股收益分别为8.16美元、8.12美元、8.55美元和9.07美元，对 应市盈率从18.6倍逐步降至16.6倍；股息收益率则从2025年的3.4%稳步提升至2028年的4.2%，显示长期 回报潜力。 大摩给予百事可乐"持股观望"评级，目标价为165美元，当前该公司市值约2035.83亿美元。 市场策略方面，百事可乐第四季度每股收益预计实现中十位数增长，主要得益于生产率提升、国际饮料 业务加速增长、汇率优势及费用控制。具体措施包括：北美零食业务关闭两家工厂并削减7000名员工， 推动自动化水平提升；北美饮料业务通过多年制造和分销调整解决产能过剩问题；全球能力中心虽起步 较晚但已显著优化劳动力和自动化效率。 营销支出虽占销售额比例略有下降，但通过生产率提升和数字支出优化维持了广告效果。国际饮料业务 第三季度销量同比下降5%，但预计第四季度恢复增长，长期占总营收40%的国际业务仍被看好；北美 饮料特许经营方面，目前近四分之一装瓶业务已特许经营，未来将采取更多区域性特许经营模式。 大摩称，百事可乐第四季度国际饮料业务将恢复增长轨迹，整体收入有望改善；生产率提升将通过调整 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大摩给予百事可乐(PEP.US)"持股观望"评级，目标价为165美元，当前该公司市值 约2035.83亿美元，52周股价范围为177.50美元至127.60美元。从财务数据看，大摩预测2025至2028财年 每股收益分别为8.16美元、8.12美元、8.55美元和9.07美元，对应市盈率从18.6倍逐步降至16.6倍;股息收 益率则从2025年的3.4%稳步提升至2028年的4.2%，显示长期回报潜力。 市场策略方面，百事可乐第四季度每股收益预计实现中十位数增长，主要得益于生产率提升、国际饮料 业务加速增长、汇率优势及费用控制。具体措施包括：北美零食业务关闭两家工厂并削减7000名员工， 推动自动化水平提升;北美饮料业务通过多年制造和分销调整解决产能过剩问题;全球能力中心虽起步较 晚但已显著优化劳动力和自动化效率。 营销支出虽占销售额比例略有下降，但通过生产率提升和数字支出优化维持了广告效果。国际饮料业务 第三季度销量同比下降5%，但预计第四季度恢复增长，长期占总营收40%的国际业务仍被看好;北美饮 料特许经营方面，目前近四分之一装瓶业务已特许经营，未来将采取更多区域性特许经营模式。 估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between population aging and debt has become a focal point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, highlighting that global aging increases fiscal burdens and expands demand for debt assets, creating a "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium. However, this equilibrium is fragile and not solely determined by demographic factors, as it also depends on interest rate sensitivity to debt, international capital flows, and political stability [2][4][7]. Group 1: Aging Population and Debt Dynamics - The aging population leads to significant increases in fiscal spending, including rising pension payments and healthcare costs, which contribute to persistent fiscal deficits and an upward trend in government debt [4][5]. - Aging not only raises government fiscal burdens but also expands societal demand for safe, long-term investment tools, such as government bonds, allowing governments to issue large amounts of debt at very low interest rates [5][6]. - The political landscape shifts towards older voters, making it more challenging to implement tax increases or spending cuts, resulting in a tendency for governments to opt for "more borrowing" rather than "spending less" [5][6]. Group 2: Fragility of the Current Equilibrium - Despite the apparent sustainability of the "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium, its fragility is underscored by factors such as interest rate sensitivity to debt, global capital market demand, and political stability [7][8]. - The estimated Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rate (DSIR) is around 0.5 basis points, suggesting that a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratios could lead to a more pronounced rise in interest rates, potentially worsening fiscal outlooks [7][8]. - Global demand for U.S. Treasury bonds may not remain constant, as geopolitical tensions and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies could weaken reliance on U.S. debt, exposing vulnerabilities in debt sustainability [8]. Group 3: Long-term Solutions - The long-term solution lies in structural fiscal reforms and productivity enhancements, as the current equilibrium, while providing short-term stability, poses long-term risks [12][14]. - Initiating structural fiscal adjustments can help stabilize market confidence and prevent debt expectations from spiraling out of control, while investments in technology, education, and labor market reforms are essential for boosting productivity [14]. - Future monetary policy may need to navigate complex trade-offs among inflation, employment, and fiscal constraints, with central banks facing greater discretion and associated credibility risks [14].

Group 1 - The relationship between population aging and government debt accumulation is a central theme at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, highlighting the structural logic behind the long-term decline in interest rates and the rise in government debt [2][3] - Aging populations lead to increased fiscal expenditures, such as rising pension payments and healthcare costs, which create a long-term basis for fiscal deficits and an upward trend in government debt [2][3] - Despite the fiscal burden, aging also expands the demand for safe debt assets, allowing governments to issue large amounts of debt at very low interest rates, creating a "high debt—low interest" equilibrium [2][3] Group 2 - The sustainability of this "high debt—low interest" equilibrium is fragile and depends on factors beyond demographic changes, including the sensitivity of interest rates to debt levels, international capital flows, and political stability [4][5] - The sensitivity of interest rates to debt (Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rates, DSIR) may be underestimated, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability if debt levels rise significantly [4] - Global demand for U.S. Treasury securities is not guaranteed, and geopolitical tensions or the rise of alternative reserve currencies could undermine the current reliance on U.S. debt [5] Group 3 - Fiscal crises can arise from "flow shocks" rather than unsustainable debt levels, with sudden events like auction failures or political deadlock posing significant risks [6] - The current "high debt—low interest" equilibrium provides short-term economic support but is not a sustainable long-term solution, necessitating structural fiscal reforms to stabilize market confidence [6][8] - Improving labor productivity is essential to alleviate the pressures of an aging population, and structural fiscal adjustments can help restore long-term growth momentum [8]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that global aging is creating a "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium, which is fragile and influenced by various factors beyond just demographic changes [1][4][7] - Aging populations lead to increased fiscal burdens due to rising pension payments, healthcare costs, and social security obligations, resulting in a long-term trend of government debt accumulation [2][3] - Despite the rising fiscal pressures, aging also expands the demand for debt assets, allowing governments to issue debt at low interest rates, as entities like pension funds and insurance companies seek safe, long-term investments [2][3] Group 2 - The sensitivity of interest rates to debt levels (Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rates, DSIR) may be underestimated, with potential implications for fiscal sustainability if debt levels rise significantly [7][8] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset is not guaranteed to remain stable, as geopolitical tensions and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies could alter capital flows [8] - Short-term fiscal crises can arise from unexpected events, even if the overall debt structure appears stable, highlighting the need for caution regarding the perceived sustainability of the current equilibrium [8] Group 3 - The long-term solution to the challenges posed by aging populations lies in structural fiscal reforms and productivity enhancements, rather than relying solely on the current debt dynamics [11][12] - Improving labor productivity is essential for alleviating the pressures of aging, and initiating structural fiscal adjustments can help stabilize market confidence and prevent debt expectations from spiraling out of control [12] - Future monetary policy may need to adapt to the constraints imposed by high debt levels, requiring a balance between inflation, employment, and fiscal considerations [12]

Economic Data Summary - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, along with Education/Healthcare losing -12K jobs [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a stagnant labor market [6] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, the highest since June, while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million [6][7] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest since Q3 2024, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only +1.0% [7] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's -$59.1 billion [8]

Group 1 - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented starting September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize rental activities and enhance tenant protections [1] - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list reveals that the total revenue of the listed companies reached $14.2 trillion in 2024, a decrease of approximately 2.7% compared to the previous year, while net profit increased by about 7% to $756.4 billion [1] - The domestic film market shows a strong performance with domestic films accounting for 91.2% of the total box office in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in the industry [2] Group 2 - The World Health Organization plans to release new guidelines for GLP-1 therapy for adult obesity treatment in September 2025, marking a significant policy shift in addressing obesity [3] - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a total rate cut of 100 basis points starting in September, with the dollar expected to stabilize after recent declines [5] - JD.com is set to acquire Hong Kong's Jia Bao, with the actual transaction amount being less than 4 billion HKD, and further details expected to be announced in August [6] Group 3 - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2-year panda bonds worth 2 billion yuan, with nearly 60% held by foreign investors, achieving a record oversubscription of 3.2 times [6] - Tesla has opened its first Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles, aiming to provide an engaging experience for all visitors, regardless of whether they own a Tesla [8] - Starbucks has introduced "Star Self-Study Rooms" in some locations in Guangdong, aiming to provide a study-friendly environment for consumers [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered [1] - Lowering interest rates is expected to stimulate the housing market [1] - The development of artificial intelligence is leading to a significant increase in productivity [1]