01 风起1979 4万个工作岗位，将如何改变一个400万人口城市的命运呢？ 让我们从1979年的微软说起。 当年，微软决定将总部从新墨西哥州的阿尔伯克基迁至西雅图东部的雷德蒙德小镇，迁到了他熟悉的"故乡"，这一决定不仅为当地带来了4万个就业岗 位，也成为西雅图科技繁荣的磁石，吸引了众多高科技企业接踵而至。 这其中，便有亚马逊。 1994年，杰夫·贝佐斯辞去华尔街工作，决心做一家在线书店。当时他在犹豫，因为俄勒冈有最大的批发书商英格拉姆图书公司（Ingram Book Company），运输成本上就更占优势。 但初始投资人尼古拉斯·汉默（Nicholas Hammuer）强烈建议贝佐斯来西雅图，这位眼光毒辣的投资人在亚马逊还不叫亚马逊的时候投入了4万美元，贝佐 斯最终听从了他的建议，选择了西雅图，因为汉默给理由是—— 西雅图地区的科技人才和创新企业相对集中。 显然，这得益于微软在此地的长期经营，它使得西雅图积累了大量的人才、配套、形成了相应的网络生态、产业集群的发展，一点点的先发优势使其在吸 引人才与产业上有了先手，正所谓"成功带动更多成功"的定律。 如今亚马逊的办公 室已遍布西雅图，成为当地产业发展的重要组 ...

美东时间1月30日周五，特朗普通过社交平台正式宣布，他将提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下一任美联储主席人选，接替任期将于2026年5月届满的鲍 威尔。特朗普在帖文中称沃什是"备受尊敬、不会让人失望"的人选。 在提名消息发酵的同时，早盘公布12月PPI通胀数据，不仅同比增长3.0%超出预期，核心PPI更是飙升至3.3%，为近半年最大单月涨幅。这意味着生产端 价格压力并未明显缓解，再次打击了市场对快速降息的预期。 需要客观审视的是，这次大跌并非"跌得离谱"，很大一部分原因是因为此前贵金属的涨幅太脱离常识，上涨曲线几乎拉成了一条直线。过去一年，金银不 断刷新历史纪录，其上涨斜率甚至令资深交易员感到心惊。 美国银行1月份的基金经理调查明确显示，做多黄金已成为全球市场中最为拥挤的交易。在情绪亢奋时，人人都视其为心头好；但在市场进入去杠杆进程 时，这种极致拥挤的资产必然会成为第一个被止盈抛弃的对象。 这两条重磅消息叠加，引发市场剧烈波动。美元指数单日暴涨0.9%，创近八个月最大涨幅。曾经被视为避险王者的贵金属遭遇"踩踏式"下跌：黄金一度重 回4900美元下方，白银日内跌幅甚至一度超过30%。 与之形成鲜明对照 ...

数十年来，两条经典关系构成了宏观分析劳动力市场的重要分析框架：一是权衡通胀与失业的菲利普斯 曲线，二是刻画岗位空缺与失业的贝弗里奇曲线。这两条曲线共同构成了货币政策评估劳动力市场松紧 程度的核心工具。在这一传统框架下，失业率被视为连接经济增长、工资形成与通胀压力的核心枢纽变 量，而职位空缺率则被用于衡量企业用工需求与劳动力供给之间的匹配状况。 菲利普斯曲线斜率趋于平坦，贝弗里奇曲线整体外移，劳动力市场信号参考性下降。 过去数十年，菲利普斯曲线与贝弗里奇曲线构成了宏观经济分析劳动力市场、判断通胀压力与政策周期 的核心工具。然而，近年来以美国为代表的发达经济体劳动力市场运行特征，正系统性偏离这一传统框 架。 人工智能（AI），是理解上述结构性变化的重要切入点。与以往主要替代体力劳动的技术进步不同， 当前AI对劳动力市场的影响更多发生在任务层面。这一过程在短期内缓冲了就业波动，但在中长期加 剧了技能错配与区域分化，使劳动力市场信号呈现出更强的滞后性与非线性特征。 在这一背景下，菲利普斯曲线的斜率趋于平坦，贝弗里奇曲线则整体外移，经济增长与就业市场表现之 间的联动关系出现阶段性脱钩，劳动力市场信号参考性下降，这对宏观 ...

Group 1 - The core message from Goldman Sachs is that while the dominance of the US dollar is weakening, it is not collapsing yet, with a projected slow decline influenced by global growth and balanced asset returns [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will experience a "slow downward process," driven by strong global growth, despite the dollar being overvalued by approximately 15% according to their GSDEER model [1][2] - The report highlights that the most significant risks to the dollar's value may arise from structural changes in capital markets rather than traditional macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the euro is that it is nearing "fair value" against the dollar, with further appreciation likely driven by the dollar's weakness rather than explosive growth in the Eurozone [3] - The British pound is identified as a "laggard" among G10 currencies, facing structural overvaluation and lacking fundamental support due to pressures from fiscal tightening and a weak domestic economic outlook [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market expects, which will negatively impact the pound's performance compared to its European counterparts [3] Group 3 - In Asia, Goldman Sachs sees opportunities in low-yield currencies closely tied to the technology supply chain, such as the South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, which are expected to outperform higher-yield currencies like the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso [5] - The South Korean won is particularly favored due to expected inflows from the inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the resumption of foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [5] - For emerging markets, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations, such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which offer significant carry trade potential despite political uncertainties [6]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor appointed by President Trump, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, arguing that the Trump administration's deregulation agenda will significantly boost productivity and potential growth, thereby justifying continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Deregulation and Economic Impact - Miran asserts that the ongoing comprehensive deregulation will enhance competition, productivity, and potential growth, allowing the economy to achieve faster growth without upward inflationary pressures [2][3]. - He predicts that by early 2025, 30% of federal regulations will be eliminated, which he believes will have a substantial positive impact on productivity and exert downward pressure on prices, supporting a more accommodative monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Miran has expressed a desire for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by approximately 150 basis points by 2026 to support labor market recovery, arguing that current rates are significantly above neutral levels and that monetary policy remains restrictive [4]. - He estimates the core inflation rate to be around 2.3%, indicating that inflation is within a manageable range, allowing for potential rate cuts without triggering unnecessary inflation [4]. - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials is highlighted, with some supporting further rate cuts due to labor market concerns, while others advocate for caution given inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem emphasizes that the task of controlling inflation relies on productivity improvements, indicating that it is still early to assess the effectiveness of current measures [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focusing on productivity as a key factor in managing inflation [1] - Musalem suggests that it is premature to evaluate the success of inflation control strategies [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict multiple positive factors will boost the US economy this year, including tax cuts, rising real wages, and accumulated household wealth [1] - The report forecasts that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in mid-year and the second half of the year due to increased uncertainty in the labor market [4] - The structure of GDP growth in the US is expected to differ from previous cycles, relying more on productivity improvements rather than labor supply growth, with productivity showing signs of rebound driven by technology [4] Group 2 - Core inflation is predicted to decline to near long-term target levels by year-end, indicating a trend of easing price growth [6] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain relatively stable, although there is a potential risk of "no job growth" as companies may optimize costs using AI technologies [6] - Consumer spending is anticipated to grow steadily due to the dual support of tax cuts and real income growth, while corporate investment is expected to be the strongest driver of annual economic growth [6]

Group 1 - The UBS report outlines a complex economic outlook for the US from 2026 to 2028, highlighting a narrow growth foundation primarily driven by artificial intelligence, while facing challenges such as tariff pressures, persistent inflation, and a weak labor market [1][2][3] - Economic growth is heavily reliant on two main pillars: stock market wealth driven by AI and investments in software and related technologies, raising concerns about sustainability and risk if the stock market experiences a significant downturn [2][10] - The report indicates that a significant portion of the economy is in recession, with declines in residential investment, non-residential construction, and government spending, suggesting a precarious economic foundation [11][12] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 will be influenced by conflicting forces, including tariff policies expected to reduce real GDP growth by approximately 0.8 percentage points, while the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) is projected to provide a 0.45 percentage point boost [3][12] - Tariff-related costs are anticipated to keep core PCE inflation elevated, posing challenges for monetary policy makers [3][12] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with job growth slowing and a decline in employment outside of healthcare and social assistance, leading to deteriorating household perceptions of job security [4][14] - Despite current challenges, there are long-term structural improvements expected due to reduced drag from population aging and potential productivity gains from AI investments [4][35][36] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult situation balancing low inflation targets and a weak labor market, with expectations of interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, but facing resistance due to persistent inflation [5][15][24] - The report suggests that the Fed's independence may be impacted by personnel changes and the need to address tariff-related inflation while supporting economic growth [5][24] Group 5 - The report concludes that the US economy is at a critical transition point, with narrow growth drivers, policy challenges, and high inflation, indicating that navigating these issues will be essential for achieving broader economic stability [6][10][36]

Core Viewpoint - Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel Investment, indicates that the Republican Party is struggling with policies on tariffs and immigration that are driving inflation, but emphasizes that deregulation will ultimately help curb rising prices [1] Group 1: Republican Policies and Inflation - Griffin states that many policies proposed by Republicans during their campaigns, such as banning illegal immigration, are actually contributing to inflation by reducing the available labor force [1] - He highlights that terminating the flow of illegal immigration constrains the labor market, which is inflationary [1] Group 2: Long-term Economic Outlook - In the long run, Griffin believes that deregulation should lead to productivity improvements, which will help reduce inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have cut interest rates for the third consecutive time but signaled that further cuts are not guaranteed, with some decision-makers concerned about inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Griffin notes a divergence in responses between the bond market and the stock market regarding inflation and deregulation issues [1]

Economic Implications of Government Reopening - The government shutdown has lasted 42 days, impacting the release of key economic data, with a House vote on a new funding bill expected soon [1] - The shutdown is estimated to reduce economic growth by 1 to 1.5% from the previous growth trajectory of nearly 4% [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding the recovery of lost economic activity, with some losses potentially being permanent [3] Labor Market Insights - Alternative data sources indicate a recent spike in layoff notices, marking the highest October figures in decades [5] - Despite some negative indicators, overall labor market conditions remain positive, although not as strong as during the first term of the Trump administration [6] - Employers are increasingly concerned about the quality of labor, with a notable month-on-month increase in this sentiment [7] AI and Productivity - The integration of AI is significantly enhancing worker productivity and firm profitability, contributing to a record number of positive earnings surprises [8][11] - Current productivity growth is estimated at about 3%, with potential upward revisions expected as more data becomes available [12][13] - The investment in AI and related technologies is driving economic growth, although challenges remain in sectors like manufacturing and housing [15][16] Capital Investment and Economic Growth - There is a substantial capital spending boom across various sectors, not limited to AI, indicating a broader economic recovery [17] - Recent tax stimuli are expected to increase labor supply and investment, further supporting economic growth [17]