人口与债务的关系成为今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会的焦点议题。与会学者会议指出，全球老龄化不仅 推高了经济体的财政负担，也扩张了社会对债务资产的需求，并塑造了一种"高债务—低利率"的均衡。 尽管老龄化创造了"高债务—低利率"的表面均衡，但在上述会议的讨论中，多位学者提醒其脆弱性。财 政与金融的可持续性，并非仅由人口结构决定，还取决于利率对债务的敏感程度、国际资本的流向，以 及政治制度的稳定性。 首先，利率对债务的敏感性（DSIR）可能被低估。本次会议讨论的论文估计DSIR大约为0.5bps，即债 务/GDP比重每上升1个百分点将使得国债收益率抬升0.5个基点。这意味着美国债务即使升至200%或 250%的GDP，利率反应仍然温和。然而，哈佛大学教授Dynan强调，现有文献中多数研究给出的DSIR 范围在1~6个基点之间，一旦现实更接近较高的测算数字，财政前景可能会迅速恶化。若美国债务/GDP 比重从100%升至200%，利率因债务增加而额外上升2个百分点，就可能导致美国债务支出增加GDP的 4%，这将迫使政府在加速扩张的债务和约每年1.2万亿美元的财政整顿之间做出选择。 然而，财政与金融的可持续性，并非仅由人口结 ...

全球老龄化不仅推高了经济体的财政负担，也扩张了社会对债务资产的需求，并塑造了一种"高债务—低利率"的均衡。 人口与债务的关系成为今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会的焦点议题。与会学者会议指出，全球老龄化不仅推高了经济体的财政负担，也扩张了社会对债务资产 的需求，并塑造了一种"高债务—低利率"的均衡。 然而，财政与金融的可持续性，并非仅由人口结构决定，还取决于利率对债务的敏感程度、国际资本流向，以及政治制度的稳定性等因素。老龄化塑造的只 是一个脆弱的均衡，而非牢不可破的常态。真正的出路仍在于结构性财政整顿与生产率提升。 高债务与低利率：人口结构带来债务的脆弱平衡 今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会主题是"劳动力市场转型"，围绕人口结构、劳动力市场与宏观政策的关系进行探讨，其中"人口结构与政府债务累积的内在逻 辑"成为焦点议题之一。与会学者普遍指出，过去几十年来利率的长期下行与政府债务的持续攀升，并非孤立的偶然现象，而是深植于老龄化社会的结构性 逻辑之中。 直观来看，老龄化社会必然带来财政支出的显著增加。养老金支付逐年上升，公共医疗成本持续膨胀，长期护理和社会保障负担越发沉重，这些刚性支出构 成了财政赤字的长期化基础，使得政府债 ...

Economic Data Summary - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, along with Education/Healthcare losing -12K jobs [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a stagnant labor market [6] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, the highest since June, while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million [6][7] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest since Q3 2024, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only +1.0% [7] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's -$59.1 billion [8]

Group 1 - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented starting September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize rental activities and enhance tenant protections [1] - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list reveals that the total revenue of the listed companies reached $14.2 trillion in 2024, a decrease of approximately 2.7% compared to the previous year, while net profit increased by about 7% to $756.4 billion [1] - The domestic film market shows a strong performance with domestic films accounting for 91.2% of the total box office in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in the industry [2] Group 2 - The World Health Organization plans to release new guidelines for GLP-1 therapy for adult obesity treatment in September 2025, marking a significant policy shift in addressing obesity [3] - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a total rate cut of 100 basis points starting in September, with the dollar expected to stabilize after recent declines [5] - JD.com is set to acquire Hong Kong's Jia Bao, with the actual transaction amount being less than 4 billion HKD, and further details expected to be announced in August [6] Group 3 - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2-year panda bonds worth 2 billion yuan, with nearly 60% held by foreign investors, achieving a record oversubscription of 3.2 times [6] - Tesla has opened its first Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles, aiming to provide an engaging experience for all visitors, regardless of whether they own a Tesla [8] - Starbucks has introduced "Star Self-Study Rooms" in some locations in Guangdong, aiming to provide a study-friendly environment for consumers [9]

降息将会激活住房市场。 在人工智能发展推动下，我们正处于生产率大幅提升的临界点。 美国财长贝森特：如果通胀数据较低，就应该降息。 ...