Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - MEG is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250] yuan. The eg2601 contract is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity additions in the fourth quarter. The inventory has accumulated slightly since the National Day, with a stock - building of about 7 - 8 tons in October and more obvious accumulation from November to December. Looking ahead, the value of ethylene glycol will likely show a bottom - consolidation trend. The absolute price range of ethylene glycol is estimated to be around 3700 - 4245 yuan, referring to the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. Summary by Directory EGPF Morning Report - **Viewpoint**: MEG will trade in the range of [3700, 4250] yuan. The eg2601 contract is under pressure. The price is mainly affected by cost, valuation, and new capacity expectations. The inventory situation and long - term supply outlook also influence the price [4]. - **Operation Suggestions for the Industrial Chain**: Different market participants (refineries, traders, end - customers, and coal - chemical production enterprises) are given different hedging and trading strategies based on their inventory and procurement situations [4]. Upstream Price - **Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; the price of methanol in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00, with a change of 73. Other prices such as动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) and ethylene in Northeast Asia remained unchanged [6]. EG Process Profits - **Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99 yuan/ton; MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87 yuan/ton; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00 yuan/ton; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69 yuan/ton; MEG methanol - based profit decreased from - 1256.09 to - 1318.22 yuan/ton; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67 yuan/ton [6]. EG Basis, Spread, and Position - **Price and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00 yuan/ton; EG January basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00 [6]. PF Basis and Profit - **Price and Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: The price of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6278 to 6488; the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190; the profit of the short - fiber main contract on the futures market decreased from 32 to 31; the deep - discount spread increased from 130 to 298 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].