ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 2025-11-25 ® 观点: MEG 区间震荡,区间为[3700,4250] @ 合约: eg2601 � 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）偏弱、自身估值偏高、弱预期（四季度卫星及撬海軍自强加粘龙及弱融投产）背景下，EG01价格持续审压，从现实来看，国庆节中到连较多带来都口库存略有积累。10月累库幅度在7-8万吨附近, 关注福炼、盘虹等装置检修落地。11-12月内累库幅度较为明显，目远月仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面来看，25年乙二醇整体投产党少，下访紧贴设产进行中，短期符局但时健康。中长周期看，26-27年乙二醇或进入到新一条的扩销局明中，26年新敌宁均215万吨，2027年之后归有不少女套装置试规投产，如古雷、中 戏，裁排等的二期项目，如恒逸、中昆、天业之类的新闻找的合成气制乙二醇项目，因此后朝乙二骑价值褒多呈现底部整理时态，总结束看，油制装置虽乐面首演亏损，但其开停,口对闪润跑的性较低。进口减团原料优越价格普 遍低于国内,在目前的情况下,我们更多参考煤制行业的成本来锚定乙二醇绝对价格区间,即3700-4245元左右。 产业链 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].