Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Research Department: Research and Consulting Department - Producer: Hao Xutong - Investment Consulting Qualification: Z0013677 Report Core Points Daily Fluctuation, Fund Flow, and Volume Change - The report presents the daily price changes, fund flow percentages, and trading volume changes of various futures varieties including粳米, international copper, PVC, etc [5][7][9] Daily Fund Inflow and Outflow Ranking - The top five futures varieties with daily fund inflow are粳米, international copper, PVC, paper pulp, and wire rod; the top five with daily fund outflow are cotton yarn, lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, Shanghai gold, and caustic soda [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures varieties vary, with CSI 1000 futures at 14%, CSI 500 futures at 12%, Shanghai gold at 12%, and Shanghai copper at 7% [14]

Market Performance - On the last trading day before the holiday, the Dalian japonica rice futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract slightly increasing by 0.30% to 3618.00 yuan/ton [1] Market News - According to the USDA, as of the week ending December 18, net sales of corn for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 2.202 million tons, up from 1.744 million tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 21,000 tons, compared to 0 tons the prior week; corn export shipments for 2025/2026 reached 1.759 million tons, an increase from 1.446 million tons the week before [1] - The Algerian Ministry of Agriculture announced plans to import 1.15 million tons of feed corn by the end of February 2026 due to domestic supply shortages, aiming to establish a national feed corn inventory to ensure stable supply and market stability [1] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) projected that Brazil's corn exports in December would be 3.52 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 6.35 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The grain futures market in China experienced a mixed performance on August 15, with corn starch futures dropping nearly 1% [1] - As of the latest data, corn futures decreased by 0.77% to 2190.00 CNY/ton, while japonica rice futures slightly increased by 0.03% to 3613.00 CNY/ton [1] - Corn starch futures fell by 0.95%, settling at 2620.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - On August 15, the opening prices for japonica rice, corn, and corn starch were 3613.00 CNY, 2197.00 CNY, and 2645.00 CNY respectively [2] - The previous closing prices for these contracts were 3615.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2202.00 CNY for corn, and 2648.00 CNY for corn starch [2] - The last settlement prices were 3612.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2207.00 CNY for corn, and 2645.00 CNY for corn starch [2] Group 3 - As of August 14, corn starch futures had a total warehouse receipt of 7450 contracts, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Corn futures saw an increase of 1388 contracts, bringing the total to 133480 contracts [3] - A basis phenomenon was observed in corn contracts, indicating a situation where the spot price (2320 CNY) exceeded the futures price (2207 CNY), resulting in a basis of 113 CNY and a basis rate of 4.87% [3]

Market Overview - On August 12, the Dalian japonica rice futures opened high but closed lower, with the main contract reported at 3613.00 CNY/ton [1] Crop Production Forecasts - Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economy raised the 2025 grain crop production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons; the corn production forecast was also increased from 26 million tons to 28 million tons [1] - As of August 9, Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the first corn harvest rate reached 99.9%, up from 99.8% the previous week, while the second corn harvest rate increased to 83.7% from 75.2% the prior week [1] Export Data - According to the USDA, for the week ending August 7, 2025, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,491,962 tons, revised from 1,284,746 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspections for the current crop year reached 63,127,205 tons, compared to 48,943,159 tons during the same period last year [1]

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]