Group 1 - The grain futures market in China experienced a mixed performance on August 15, with corn starch futures dropping nearly 1% [1] - As of the latest data, corn futures decreased by 0.77% to 2190.00 CNY/ton, while japonica rice futures slightly increased by 0.03% to 3613.00 CNY/ton [1] - Corn starch futures fell by 0.95%, settling at 2620.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - On August 15, the opening prices for japonica rice, corn, and corn starch were 3613.00 CNY, 2197.00 CNY, and 2645.00 CNY respectively [2] - The previous closing prices for these contracts were 3615.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2202.00 CNY for corn, and 2648.00 CNY for corn starch [2] - The last settlement prices were 3612.00 CNY for japonica rice, 2207.00 CNY for corn, and 2645.00 CNY for corn starch [2] Group 3 - As of August 14, corn starch futures had a total warehouse receipt of 7450 contracts, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Corn futures saw an increase of 1388 contracts, bringing the total to 133480 contracts [3] - A basis phenomenon was observed in corn contracts, indicating a situation where the spot price (2320 CNY) exceeded the futures price (2207 CNY), resulting in a basis of 113 CNY and a basis rate of 4.87% [3]

Market Overview - On August 12, the Dalian japonica rice futures opened high but closed lower, with the main contract reported at 3613.00 CNY/ton [1] Crop Production Forecasts - Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economy raised the 2025 grain crop production forecast from 54 million tons to 56 million tons; the corn production forecast was also increased from 26 million tons to 28 million tons [1] - As of August 9, Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) reported that the first corn harvest rate reached 99.9%, up from 99.8% the previous week, while the second corn harvest rate increased to 83.7% from 75.2% the prior week [1] Export Data - According to the USDA, for the week ending August 7, 2025, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,491,962 tons, revised from 1,284,746 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspections for the current crop year reached 63,127,205 tons, compared to 48,943,159 tons during the same period last year [1]

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]