农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.14 《政策强催化与基本面共振渐成，生 猪低位积极布局 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《集团降重叠加二育出栏，全国猪价 承压—行业周报》-2025.8.3 8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻产量，下 调大豆、小麦产量 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 朱本伦（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 玉米：2025/2026 年全球产量、消费量环比上调 （1）USDA 上调全球玉米产量。USDA（美国农业部）发布 8 月全球农产品 2025/2026 年供需预测报告，与 7 月预测报告相比，8 月报告上调玉米产量，主 要系美国、乌克兰玉米收获面积扩大。（2）供需情况：产量方面，2025/2026 年 全球玉米产量环比调增 2492 万吨至 12.89 亿吨。贸易方面，2025/2026 年出口量 环比调增 505 万吨至 2.01 亿吨。消费量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, compared to 22.5% in the same period last year; 2024/25 soybean sales reached 78.4% of the expected output, compared to 82.2% in the same period last year [1] - From July to August 3, 2025 (2025/26 season), the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared to 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, lower than 1.92 million tons in the same period last year; the EU's palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, compared to 360,000 tons in the same period of the previous year; the EU's rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons, compared to 430,000 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] - StoneX predicts that the US soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre; the US corn production in 2025 will be 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, higher than the latest USDA forecasts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sales reached 16.8% of the expected output, 2024/25 sales reached 78.4% of the expected output [1] - From July to August 3, 2025, the EU's soybean imports were 970,000 tons, soybean meal imports were 1.51 million tons, palm oil imports were 160,000 tons, and rapeseed imports were 260,000 tons [1] - StoneX predicts US 2025 soybean production of 4.425 billion bushels and corn production of 16.323 billion bushels, higher than USDA forecasts [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 30 to August 5, 2025 are presented [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided [3] Oil Basis - No specific content provided [4] Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - No specific content provided [7]