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油脂油料早报-20251111
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending November 6, 2025, was 1,088,577 tons, meeting expectations, with 0 tons exported to the Chinese mainland. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year so far is 8,889,371 tons, lower than 15,320,558 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 61% of the expected sowing area [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October 2025 reached a six - and - a - half - year high of 246 tons, up 4.44% from the previous month, due to a significant increase in production. October's crude palm oil production was 204 tons, up 11.02% month - on - month, and exports were 169 tons, up 18.58% month - on - month [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10, 2025, decreased compared to the previous month, with AmSpec reporting a 9.5% decrease and ITS reporting a 12.3% decrease [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending November 6, 2025, was 1,088,577 tons, within the market forecast range of 1,000,000 - 1,700,000 tons. The previous week's volume was 984,875 tons (revised from an initial 965,063 tons). In the same week of 2024, it was 2,363,532 tons [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate as of last Thursday was 61% of the expected sowing area [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October 2025 was 246 tons, 4.44% higher than the previous month. October production was 204 tons (up 11.02% month - on - month) and exports were 169 tons (up 18.58% month - on - month). Before the report, the expected inventory was 244 tons, production 194 tons, and exports 148 tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10, 2025, were 448,328 tons according to AmSpec (down 9.5% from the previous month) and 459,320 tons according to ITS (down 12.3% from the previous month) [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oilseeds and oils in different regions from November 4 - 10, 2025, are provided, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [1]. Others - Information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and oil import profit is mentioned but no specific data is provided [1]. - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed futures price spreads is also mentioned without specific details [1].
农产品日报:现货价格持稳,豆粕震荡运行-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focuses include the Sino - US negotiation situation and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - For the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has recovered slightly in the Northeast region due to the slightly stronger price, while in the North China region, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the shipment rhythm of moist grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various channels is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2373 yuan/ton, a change of - 23 yuan/ton (- 0.96%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 41, a change of + 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, a change of + 6; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, a change of - 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 207, a change of + 3 [1] - **Market Information**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7 million tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrivals and high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal. Future focuses are on Sino - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2116 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2427 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 24, a change of + 7; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, a change of - 3 [4] - **Market Information**: As of October 25, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in 2025/26 was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has recovered slightly, and the shipment of moist grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, inventory is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]
五矿期货农产品早报-20251029
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. Although there are signals of China potentially importing US soybeans, the increase in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums. The import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the higher - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, but this situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [5][7]. - For sugar, short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [12][13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait [15][17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, due to the high slaughter scale and expected future supply, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a short - term rebound, but the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [19][20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would make large - scale purchases of US soybeans. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 20 yuan, with the price in East China at 2,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was weak, but the pick - up was good. Last week, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a medium level. Frequent consultations on trade issues between China and the US are expected to be beneficial to US soybeans in the short term, but the international soybean supply is abundant, and the high premium in Brazil may decline, leading to a weakening import cost. Domestically, high soybean and soybean meal inventories mean that US soybean imports will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the profit margin for oil extraction [2]. Strategy Views - In terms of import cost, the signal of China potentially importing US soybeans may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. Given the loose global soybean supply, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Oil Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, 12.3% - 16.2% in the first 15 days, 3.4% in the first 20 days, and decreased by 0.4% in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, 2.71% in the first 20 days, and 1.63% in the first 25 days [5]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons [5]. - Indonesia said that due to good weather, its palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell. High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently has suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, weakening the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year. There are also rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Views - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high - supply and inventory - accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. Otherwise, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,660 - 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,600 - 5,640 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 5,790 - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 177 yuan/ton [9]. - On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced regulations on the registration management of overseas production enterprises of imported food. The number of enterprises suspended from importing Thai syrups and pre - mixed powders has increased from 35 to 44, with only 16 being effective, and the scope of suspension has expanded from 1,702 items to 2,106 items [9]. Strategy Views - Short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,265 yuan/ton [12]. - On October 27, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 7.06 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy Views - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas showing narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.94 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao dropped 0.11 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and farmers were actively selling. The market sales were average, and industry players generally followed the market. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with a few areas showing weak adjustments [15][16]. Strategy Views - The spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. The futures market has high positions, and it is expected to remain at the bottom, but the upward space is not optimistic, and the trend may be volatile. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [17]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to rise. The average price in Henan increased 0.23 yuan to 12.75 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan increased 0.35 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi increased 0.43 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg. Some farmers in low - price areas may still have a tendency to hold back sales. Although pig prices continued to be strong, the downstream purchasing power was limited in some northern regions after the previous price increase. It is expected that prices will be stable today, with possible declines in some areas [19]. Strategy Views - Currently, the slaughter scale and the expected future supply are still high, and the decline in pig weight during the price drop was limited. In the medium term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, multiple factors have led to a rebound, and the supporting factors still exist. The futures market with high positions is prone to fluctuations. It is expected that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [20].
五矿期货农产品早报:农产品早报2025-10-28-20251028
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans will slow down the domestic destocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield situation in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Although there is an expectation of supply tightness in the first quarter of next year, it has been affected by the current high - yield situation. It is advisable to wait and see for a clearer production signal [5][6]. - For sugar, considering the expected increase in production in Brazil's next sugar - cane crushing season and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries, it is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton futures, the upward space is limited [12][13]. - For eggs, the spot price has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a bottom - building stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [15][17]. - For pigs, in the short term, the price may continue to rebound, but in the medium term, due to high supply pressure, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse spread positions on rebounds and short when approaching the pressure level [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Views - Import cost of soybeans fluctuates mainly. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [4]. - For palm oil, wait for a clearer production signal due to the current high - yield suppression [6]. - For sugar, short on rallies in the fourth quarter considering the expected increase in production [10]. - For cotton, the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals [13]. - For eggs, wait and see as the spot price rebound is limited and the futures market is in a bottom - building stage [17]. - For pigs, short - term rebound, medium - term short on rebounds and establish reverse spread positions [20]. Market Information - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy a large amount of US soybeans. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 36% as of last Thursday [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil exports and production data showed different trends in October. High production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppressed the market, and there are rumors about suspending the implementation of B50 in Indonesia in 2026 [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated narrowly on Monday. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase in the next season, and gasoline prices in Brazil were cut [9]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate on Monday. Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton purchase price rose, and the spinning mill's operating rate was flat compared with the previous week [12]. - **Eggs**: The national egg price was mostly stable with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was relatively stable, and market sales were average [15]. - **Pigs**: Domestic pig prices generally rose yesterday. Supply is expected to be limited, and downstream purchase enthusiasm is good [19].
油脂油料早报-20251013
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:25
Group 1: Report Core Information - Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 12.48% of the expected 2025 planting area, significantly higher than 5.28% in the same period last year [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September reached a nearly two - year high, with a 7.2% increase from the previous month to 236 million tons [1] - Malaysia's September crude palm oil production decreased by 0.73% from the previous month to 1.84 million tons, ending a two - month increase [1] - Malaysia's September palm oil exports increased by 7.69% to 1.43 million tons, the highest since November 2024 [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10, 2025 increased by 19.4% compared to the same period last month [1] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10, 2025 increased by 9.9% compared to the same period last month [1] Group 2: Spot Price Information - From September 26 to October 10, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated. For example, soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2880 on September 26, 2890 on September 30, 2900 on October 9, and 2880 on October 10 [1][8]
油脂油料早报-20250911
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season from September 1 - 4 is expected to be between 40 - 160 million tons, with US soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 90 million tons and US soybean oil export sales by 0 - 1.6 million tons [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares due to farmers choosing to plant other crops [1] - Malaysia's August palm oil inventory reached a two - year high due to strong production, with inventory increasing by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, production increasing by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports slightly decreasing by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.2% according to ITS and 8.4% according to AmSpec compared to the previous month [1] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season from September 1 - 4 are expected to net increase by 40 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 5 - 90 million tons, and soybean oil by 0 - 1.6 million tons [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares [1] - Malaysia's August palm oil inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, exports decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons, and domestic consumption increased by over 6% to 490,923 tons [1] - Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% according to ITS and 8.4% according to AmSpec [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 4 - 10, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided [3] Fatty Oil Basis - No specific content provided [5] Fatty Oil Futures Spread - No specific content provided [7]
油脂油料早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The US soybean meal export sales and shipments showed mixed performance in the week ending August 21, 2025, with current - year sales increasing and shipments decreasing [1]. - The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July 2025 is expected to reach a record high for the same period, driven by increased demand for vegetable oil from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - The soybean planting area in Brazil's Paraná state is expected to expand by 1% in the 2025/26 season, and the yield may increase by 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% in 2025 due to a 5.7% increase in yield, offsetting the 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean meal export sales: In the week ending August 21, 2025, current - year export sales net increased by 4.73 million tons (up 3% from the previous week and down 34% from the four - week average), and next - year sales net increased by 21.48 million tons. Market expectations were 2.5 - 15 million tons for current - year and 10 - 30 million tons for next - year sales. Export shipments were 19.81 million tons, down 25% from the previous week and 35% from the four - week average [1]. - US soybean crushing volume in July 2025: Expected to be 207.2 million bushels (6.218 million short tons), up 5.1% from June and 7.2% from July 2024, a record high for the same period. The estimated range is 204.8 - 212.0 million bushels, with a median of 207.1 million bushels. The increase is due to increased demand from bio - fuel producers and higher profits [1]. - US soybean oil inventory as of July 31, 2025: Expected to be 1.903 billion pounds, up 0.5% from the end of June and down 5.2% from July 2024. The estimated range is 1.875 - 1.960 billion pounds, with a median of 1.9 billion pounds [1]. - Brazil's Paraná state: The 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to be about 5.8 million hectares, up 1% from the previous year, and the yield may reach about 22 million tons, up 4% [1]. - Canada's rapeseed: The 2025 production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with a 5.7% increase in yield to 41.0 bushels per acre, offsetting a 2.0% reduction in the harvesting area to 21.4 million acres [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/22 | 2980 | 2540 | 8620 | 9530 | 10010 | | 2025/08/25 | 3010 | 2570 | 8700 | 9520 | 10010 | | 2025/08/26 | 2990 | 2560 | 8670 | 9440 | 10030 | | 2025/08/27 | 2970 | 2550 | 8610 | 9440 | 9970 | | 2025/08/28 | 2960 | 2520 | 8580 | 9350 | 9880 | [2]
油脂油料早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:04
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending August 7 was 518,066 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 500,000 tons [1]. - As of August 10, the U.S. soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations, with a decline from the previous week [1]. - Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with a 27% increase in daily average export volume compared to August last year [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.3% (ITS data) and 23.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [1]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached the highest in nearly two years, with a 4.02% month - on - month increase to 2.11 million tons due to strong production [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending August 7 was 518,066 tons, higher than the expected 200,000 - 500,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 628,110 tons [1]. - As of August 10, the U.S. soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [1]. - Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with a daily average export volume of 462,408.88 tons, a 27% increase compared to August last year [1]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.3% (ITS data) and 23.7% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [1]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached 2.11 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase, with production increasing by 7.09% to 1.81 million tons and exports increasing by 3.82% to 1.31 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 5 - 11 are provided [2]. Protein Meal Basis - The report mentions protein meal basis but does not provide specific content [3]. Fat Basis - The report mentions fat basis but does not provide specific content [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread - The report mentions fat and oil futures spread but does not provide specific content [8]
现货涨跌互现,豆粕偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]
油脂油料早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 08:14
1. Overnight Market Information - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending July 10, 2025 was 147,045 tons, lower than the market forecast of 200,000 - 500,000 tons and the revised figure of 399,600 tons in the previous week [1] - As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [1] - Brazil exported 4,331,243.97 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of July 2025, with an average daily export volume 1.61% lower than that in July last year [1] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 were 4,937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, while the imports of edible vegetable oil decreased by 8.6% [1] - India's palm oil imports in June 2025 jumped 60% to 955,683 tons, reaching an 11 - month high, and the domestic vegetable oil inventory increased to 156.8 million tons as of July 1 [1] 2. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 8 - 14, 2025 are presented in a table [9] 3. Other Information - There are sections about the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, protein meal basis, oil basis, oil futures price spread, and oil import profit, but no specific content is provided [3][10][12][15]