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股指期货将震荡整理,原油、纸浆期货将震荡偏强,黄金、白银、螺纹钢期货将偏强震荡,工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on June 23, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; crude oil and pulp futures are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias; gold, silver, and rebar futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and soda ash futures are likely to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News and Trading Tips - Chinese and Russian leaders emphasize strengthening cooperation, and China will implement more proactive macro - policies to promote high - quality development [9]. - China strongly condemns the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and calls for a cease - fire and dialogue [10]. - The 6 - month LPR remains unchanged, and China's fiscal revenue and expenditure data show that the expenditure increases while the revenue slightly decreases [10]. - The cross - border payment system between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong is launched, and the first batch of participating institutions is announced [11]. - The US Congress tries to limit the president's war - making power, and the US faces increased threat levels after the attack on Iran [15][16]. - The EU and the US are negotiating a "reciprocal trade agreement", but there is uncertainty about tariffs [16]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - related Information - The Dalian Commodity Exchange optimizes option exercise and hedging operations and adds option waiver applications [17]. - The CSRC approves the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [17]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel does not cause a significant increase in oil prices, and OPEC + does not need to intervene for now [17]. - International precious metal futures generally decline, while London base metals close higher [18]. - Shipping market panic drives up freight rates, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar shows an upward trend [19]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On June 20, 2025, the performance of major stock index futures contracts varied. The overall outlook for June is that most contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly, and on June 23, they are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [19][20][26]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On June 20, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures showed different trends. On June 23, both are expected to fluctuate strongly [42][44]. 3.3.3 Gold and Silver Futures - On June 20, gold and silver futures declined. In June, gold futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range, and silver futures are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias and may hit a new low. On June 23, both are expected to fluctuate strongly [48][53]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - On June 20, most base metal futures showed downward trends. Different base metal futures have different trends in June and on June 23, with some expected to fluctuate strongly and some weakly [58][62][70]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures - On June 20, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. On June 23, both are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon futures may hit a new low [88][89]. 3.3.6 Lithium Carbonate Futures - On June 20, lithium carbonate futures declined. On June 23, it is expected to fluctuate weakly and may hit a new low [90][91]. 3.3.7 Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore Futures - On June 20, these futures showed upward trends. In June, they are expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and on June 23, they are expected to fluctuate strongly [93][99][101]. 3.3.8 Coking Coal Futures - On June 20, coking coal futures rose. On June 23, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [106]. 3.3.9 Glass and Soda Ash Futures - On June 20, glass futures rose while soda ash futures declined. On June 23, both are expected to fluctuate weakly [108][109]. 3.3.10 Crude Oil and Fuel Oil Futures - On June 20, crude oil futures showed mixed trends. In June, crude oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. On June 23, crude oil and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [112][116]. 3.3.11 PTA, PVC, and Methanol Futures - On June 20, these futures showed different trends. On June 23, they are all expected to fluctuate strongly [118][121][122]. 3.3.12 Natural Rubber and Pulp Futures - On June 20, natural rubber futures declined, and pulp futures also declined. On June 23, natural rubber futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and pulp futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [124][125]. 3.3.13 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - On June 20, this futures contract declined significantly. On June 23, it is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [129].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250523
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:46
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 23, 2024 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although supply has decreased and demand has rebounded, there is still inventory accumulation. The futures price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the price will re - enter the downward channel with a potentially weak and volatile trend on the market [8][9]. - For glass, supply has significantly declined, demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand - boosting effect of policies is limited. The price trend will be weak and volatile in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 22**: SA509 opened at 1284 yuan/ton, closed at 1286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.54%, with a decrease of 24,595 lots in positions; SA601 closed at 1276 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with an increase of 3,943 lots in positions; FG509 closed at 1018 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 64,371 lots in positions; FG601 closed at 1074 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with an increase of 6,554 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China was 1380 - 1480 yuan/ton, and that of light - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Weekly production dropped to 663,800 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a 4.81% week - on - week increase. The weekly inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 860,000 tons, with a slight reduction [8]. - **Glass Market**: Glass production has dropped significantly to the level of late February, and there is a possibility of further decline. The glass market has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Policy support has little effect on boosting demand, and the price will be weak and volatile [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In April 2025, China's soda ash exports were 170,600 tons, a decrease of 23,700 tons month - on - month, with an average export price of $189.13/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 653,900 tons, a 112.02% increase year - on - year. Imports were 4,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons month - on - month, with an average import price of $216.79/ton. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 14,500 tons, a 97.58% decrease year - on - year [12]. - The market price of baking soda in Henan remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton [12]. - The domestic float glass market had mixed price changes, with most prices remaining stable. In North China, prices were mostly stable with some minor increases, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].