银价高企倒逼产业变革，光伏金属化革命的"铜"时代开 启 20260126 摘要 光伏行业正加速推进以铜代银方案，主要包括银包铜、电镀铜和纯铜浆 技术，其中银包铜和电镀铜已实现 G 瓦级产线落地，纯铜浆虽有技术难 点，但多家公司正积极突破。 预计 2026 年成为光伏以铜代银元年，假设 2026-2027 年银包铜和铜 浆渗透率分别达到 17.7%和 43%，电池产量分别为 600GW 和 700GW，则需求量分别约为 1,000 吨和 2,900 吨，加工费市场空间可 达 10 亿元和 29 亿元。 博迁新材是目前唯一能大规模量产光伏用纳米级铜粉的企业，其 PVD 法 生产的高纯度、高导电性纳米粉体优势显著，若光伏领域全面采用该工 艺，市场规模可达 200 亿元。 三星与博迁新材签订了接近 50 亿元的大单，合同期四年，主要用于 AI 服务器的 GPU 芯片电容，博迁新材的 80 纳米级粉体性能接近甚至优于 村田，助力三星在 AI 服务器领域取得 40%的市场份额。 白银价格上涨导致光伏组件成本结构变化，白银成本已接近组件总成本 的 20%，企业正积极寻找替代方案，如铜，以降低金属化成本。 Q&A 光伏产业目 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in silicon and silver prices are intensifying profit pressures on photovoltaic (PV) cell and module companies, with a long-term tight balance expected in silver supply and demand due to a persistent supply gap since 2019 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The rising costs of silver necessitate that PV cell and module companies urgently reduce silver consumption [1] - Copper is identified as the most suitable alternative material to silver, although challenges such as copper oxidation and diffusion need to be addressed [1] Group 2: Technological Developments - The PCB, MLCC, and semiconductor industries have accumulated valuable experience that can be referenced by the photovoltaic sector [1] - Progress is being made with silver-coated copper and electroplated copper solutions in the photovoltaic industry, while pure copper paste remains the ultimate goal, albeit with several unresolved issues [1] Group 3: Market Projections - It is projected that by 2026-2027, the penetration rates for silver-coated copper and copper paste will reach 17.7% and 43%, respectively, leading to production volumes of 813 tons and 2,188 tons for these materials [1] - This shift is expected to provide significant performance elasticity for paste and metal powder companies [1]

Group 1 - The recent increase in silicon and silver prices has intensified profit pressure on photovoltaic cell and module companies [1] - Since 2019, there has been a persistent supply-demand gap in silver, which is expected to remain in a long-term tight balance due to rigid supply and the growth of new applications requiring silver [1] - To control costs, reducing silver consumption has become a priority for photovoltaic cell and module companies, with copper identified as the most suitable alternative material [1] Group 2 - The industry has experience from PCB, MLCC, and semiconductor sectors to address issues related to copper oxidation and diffusion [1] - Progress in silver-coated copper and electroplated copper solutions in the photovoltaic sector is relatively fast, while pure copper paste remains the ultimate goal with several challenges to overcome [1] - If silver-coated copper and copper paste penetration rates reach 17.7% and 43% respectively by 2026-2027, the corresponding production of these materials will be 813 tons and 2,188 tons, providing significant performance elasticity for material and metal powder companies [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry driven by the rising silver prices, which have surged over 200% since early 2024, leading to a dramatic increase in silver paste costs from 3.4% to 19.3% of total component costs, making it the largest cost item in PV modules [1] - The cost crisis is accelerating the adoption of copper as a substitute for silver, with companies that master this technology expected to see substantial performance elasticity [1] - The report estimates that if the penetration rates of silver-coated copper and pure copper pastes reach 17.7% and 43% respectively by 2026-2027, the paste industry could see an incremental profit space of approximately 320 million and 730 million yuan [1] Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2019, with over 80% of supply coming from mining, primarily as a byproduct of other metals, and only 28% from independent silver mines [2] - The demand for silver is expected to grow, with photovoltaic applications accounting for 17.6% of silver demand in 2024, driven by increased energy storage and grid upgrades [2] Group 2: Cost Pressures in the PV Industry - The PV industry is facing dual pressures from overcapacity and soaring costs, with both silicon and silver prices rising, further squeezing profit margins for battery and module manufacturers [3] - The cost of silver paste has become a critical focus for the industry, with current silver consumption in TOPCon batteries averaging 10-13 mg/W, leading to significant cost implications for manufacturers [3] Group 3: Copper Substitution Technology - Copper is identified as the most promising substitute for silver, although it faces technical challenges such as oxidation and diffusion [4] - The industry is advancing copper substitution through three main technical routes: silver-coated copper, electroplated copper, and pure copper paste [4] Group 4: Progress of Copper Substitution Techniques - The silver-coated copper solution is progressing the fastest, with low-temperature silver-coated copper technology validated for heterojunction (HJT) batteries, potentially reducing metallization costs by approximately 0.15 yuan/W [5] - Electroplated copper technology is being adopted by leading BC battery manufacturers, but it is limited by high equipment investment costs [6] - Pure copper paste technology is still in the research and development phase, facing challenges in controlling copper oxidation during high-temperature sintering [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing significant overcapacity across all segments, with nominal capacity for components approximately double the actual demand, expected to persist for several quarters [1][2][10] - As of Q1 2025, nominal capacities for solar components, batteries, silicon wafers, and silicon materials exceed 1,200 GW, while the expected production for components is only 650-700 GW [2][10] Market Dynamics - Silicon material prices are at a low point, with N-type silicon material prices nearing cash costs, leading to losses for many producers [1][3][4] - The end of the domestic installation rush has limited the downward price movement of silicon materials, prompting some companies to reduce production [1][3] - Demand for PV products is heavily influenced by policy changes, with a slight recovery expected in Q4 2025 due to concentrated domestic demand [1][5][7] Technological Developments - The advancement of battery technologies, particularly TOPCon and BC technologies, is crucial for clearing excess capacity [1][5][7][8] - TOPCon technology is evolving, with potential efficiency improvements, but requires significant investment for equipment upgrades, posing risks for underfunded companies [1][8] - BC technology shows strong performance in distributed markets, with higher average production power compared to TOPCon, particularly in Europe where it commands a premium [1][9][11] Financial Implications - The average production power of BC cells exceeds 650 W, providing a competitive edge in the market [9] - Companies like LONGi and Aiko are expanding their BC production capacity, while TOPCon technology faces challenges due to declining orders and profitability [11][12] - The profitability of BC technology in Europe is significantly higher than that of TOPCon, with potential for positive earnings if overseas shipments increase [11][12] Supply Chain and Inventory - The silicon material market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with production cuts expected to continue as companies respond to low prices [4][14][15] - Inventory levels have decreased from approximately 500,000 tons to around 400,000 tons due to increased component production, with expectations for further reductions by the end of 2025 [16] Cost Structure and Innovations - Silver paste costs have risen to 12% and 39% of the total costs for components and batteries, respectively, making it a significant cost driver [17] - Innovations aimed at reducing silver paste costs include the use of copper-based alternatives, which face technical challenges but offer substantial cost savings [18][19][20] - The market for high-performance silver paste is expected to grow, with advancements in copper paste technology showing promise for future cost reductions [21][22] Conclusion - The PV industry is navigating a complex landscape of overcapacity, technological advancements, and shifting demand dynamics, with significant implications for future profitability and market positioning [1][5][7][10]

近日，海天股份(603759)发布重组草案，拟通过全资子公司海天光伏以5.02亿元现金，收购贺利氏光伏 银浆事业部（下称"贺利氏光伏"）相关资产，包括贺利氏光伏100%股权及贺利氏中国对贺利氏光伏的 债权、贺利氏光伏科技（上海）有限公司100%股权，以及HMSL持有的HPSL100%股权。通过此次并 购，公司将战略切入光伏银浆赛道。 近年来，光伏呈现"少银化、去银化"趋势，但浆料行业的报价模式是在当天银价基础上收取加工费，而 未来银包铜或铜浆量产，浆料公司仍然可以收取单位加工费，盈利能力并不受到显著影响。 此前，海天股份于3月6日发布2024年年度报告，公司当期实现营业收入15.19亿元，同比增长18.95%； 归母净利润达3.05亿元，同比增幅25.97%，创历史新高。 2024年，海天股份传统水务业务持续巩固。公司去年新增污水处理规模35万吨/日，在手特许经营项目 覆盖12省份，服务人口超1500万，财务结构保持稳健，资产负债率54.92%，流动比率提升至1.07，为战 略转型提供了坚实保障。 在传统主业稳健增长的情况下，新能源资产的并购有望为公司带来新的增长曲线。 据公开资料，贺利氏光伏作为全球光伏银浆 ...