Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding monetary policy is creating uncertainty in the dollar's performance and affecting other financial assets [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not be delayed beyond September, citing economic pressures and the need for stimulus [3]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions must be based on comprehensive economic assessments rather than short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. - This clear division between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve is contributing to market confusion regarding future monetary policy directions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The limited upward potential of the dollar is leading investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies amid policy uncertainty [4]. - Despite a minor decline in the dollar index, there are positive movements in S&P and Nasdaq futures, reflecting increased investor preference for risk assets due to expectations of future monetary easing [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.245%, indicating a balanced approach among bond market investors in light of policy uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for the dollar index, with moving averages declining and an expanding Bollinger Band indicating increased market volatility [4][5]. - Key support levels for the dollar index are identified at 96.37 and 94.62, while resistance levels are at 97.32 and 98.15 [5]. - These technical signals provide important references for investors in assessing the dollar index's future movements [5].