Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted for 40 days, with a plan to vote on a bill that combines short-term funding measures with three annual appropriations bills [5][6] - The temporary funding measure is expected to provide government funding until January 2026 and has garnered sufficient support from Democratic senators for passage [5][6] - The Senate will first vote on the temporary funding resolution previously blocked 14 times, followed by amendments to include annual appropriations and a longer funding extension [5][6] Group 2 - Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that the revised funding plan must also pass the House of Representatives and be signed by President Trump, which may take several days [5][6] - Senate Democrats have been resisting the funding bill to pressure Republicans into agreeing to reforms in the healthcare system, including extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act [8] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned that if the shutdown continues, economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved, while White House economic advisor Hassett suggested that growth might turn negative [8][9]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 40 days, with President Trump indicating that a resolution may be near [1] - The Senate is expected to vote on a bill that combines short-term funding measures with three annual appropriations bills, which could provide funding until January 2026 [1] - The revised funding proposal still requires approval from the House of Representatives and President Trump, which may take several days [1] - Senate Democrats are resisting the funding bill to pressure Republicans into agreeing to healthcare reforms, including extending subsidies under the Affordable Care Act [1] - The Senate has agreed to vote separately on the subsidy issue later [1] Market Reactions - Nasdaq futures increased by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures rose over 0.5% [1] - Bitcoin reached approximately $106,400, and Ethereum surpassed $3,600 [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.64% to $4,027, and spot silver increased by 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding monetary policy is creating uncertainty in the dollar's performance and affecting other financial assets [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not be delayed beyond September, citing economic pressures and the need for stimulus [3]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions must be based on comprehensive economic assessments rather than short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. - This clear division between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve is contributing to market confusion regarding future monetary policy directions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The limited upward potential of the dollar is leading investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies amid policy uncertainty [4]. - Despite a minor decline in the dollar index, there are positive movements in S&P and Nasdaq futures, reflecting increased investor preference for risk assets due to expectations of future monetary easing [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.245%, indicating a balanced approach among bond market investors in light of policy uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for the dollar index, with moving averages declining and an expanding Bollinger Band indicating increased market volatility [4][5]. - Key support levels for the dollar index are identified at 96.37 and 94.62, while resistance levels are at 97.32 and 98.15 [5]. - These technical signals provide important references for investors in assessing the dollar index's future movements [5].