当前美联储内部就是否应在12月再次降息出现明显分歧，这也让原本例行而可预测的货币政策会议，突 然具备了戏剧性和反讽色彩。若投票走向出现某种"极端但完全可能"的结果，美联储将迎来历史上最讽 刺的一次决策时刻。 通常无需"数票"，但这次不同 在正常时期，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决议往往通过内部协调达成一致，个别反对票通 常影响有限，因此观察者很少需要逐一计算票数。 但当前，美联储的政策分歧已公开化，投票细节变得尤为关键。 以下是一种"疯狂却完全现实"的投票情境。 关键的一票还缺谁？ 地区联储主席们：几乎全都对降息持保留态度 12月会议中拥有投票权的 4 位地区联储主席分别是：芝加哥联储主席 奥斯坦·古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）、波士顿联储主席 苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）、圣路易斯联储主席 阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆 （Alberto Musalem）和堪萨斯城联储主席 杰夫·施密德（Jeff Schmid）。他们均曾公开表示对降息"有 所保留"甚至"倾向反对"。 当然，这并不意味着他们一定会集体投反对票，例如古尔斯比日前仍保持中立，称"想先听听同事们的 意见"。但他们全部倾向" ...

机构分析指出，美联储10月政策会议纪要或将更清晰地揭示政策制定者之间存在的意见分歧。当时决策 层不仅面临官方数据缺位的困境，还需在相互矛盾的市场信号中权衡，同时正值主席鲍威尔任期最后几 个月面临领导层交接的特殊时期。上月会议罕见地出现了同时支持宽松与紧缩货币政策的异议声音。在 美联储以10-2的投票结果决定降息25个基点后，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上承认存在"严重分歧观点"。由于 美国政府停摆导致10月会议前官方数据发布中断，官员们只能依赖替代信息进行评估，这可能加剧了他 们对进一步降息日益增长的谨慎情绪。"越来越多委员认为，当前至少应该暂停观察一个周期，"鲍威尔 上月对记者表示。尽管政府经济数据正逐步恢复发布（9月非农就业报告将于周四公布），但完整缺失 数据的发布排期仍未明确，且无法确定在12月美联储下次会议前能获得哪些信息。（格隆汇） ...

他表示，"劳动力市场依旧疲软，且已接近增长失速的临界水平"，同时剔除关税影响后的通胀 "已相对 接近" 美联储2%的目标水平。 11月18日，下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒周一表示，支持在12月的政策会议上再次 降息。他称，他越来越担心劳动力市场及招聘活动急剧放缓。 "我并不担心通胀加速或通胀预期显著上升，"沃勒在一场讲话时表示，"我的重点是劳动力市场，在经 历了几个月的疲软之后，本周晚些时候公布的9月份就业报告或未来几周的任何其他数据都不太可能改 变我的观点，即再次降息是有必要的。" 沃勒明确表示，他支持再次降息25个基点。 尽管近几个月沃勒已多次公开支持降息，但他周一的言论反映了最近的事态发展。由于美国政府此前停 摆导致官方经济数据暂停发布，这位政策制定者引用了多项其他数据，这些数据显示劳动力市场需求疲 软，消费者正面临压力。 同时他指出，物价数据表明关税不会对通胀产生长期影响。再次降息将是一次 "风险管理" 举措。 "我担心限制性货币政策正在给经济带来压力，尤其会影响中低收入消费者。"沃勒表示，"12 月降息将 为防范劳动力市场疲软加速提供额外保障，并推动政策向更中性的水平靠拢。" 在9月 ...

美联储上周降息的决定本身并不出人意料，但这次会议却堪称历史性的。以10票赞成、2票反对的结果 决定降息25个基点的投票，是自1990年以来第三次出现投票成员同时倾向于收紧和放宽两种截然相反的 货币政策。 随着经济不确定性的迷雾日益浓厚，美联储19人组成的货币政策制定委员会内部的分歧与异议正在不断 加深，这让主席鲍威尔的共识构建能力面临着终极考验。 由特朗普任命的理事米兰投票支持降息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则投票支持维持利率不 变。 这些裂痕在鲍威尔会后的新闻发布会上得到了凸显。他告诉记者，官员们对"如何继续前进持有截然不 同的看法"，这意味着12月份的宽松政策并非市场此前预期的"板上钉钉"。事实上，12月的决定可能就 像抛硬币一样，在再次降息25个基点或维持不变之间抉择。 这一切都发生在一个充满挑战的时刻。投资者不仅要应对因美国政府停摆而造成的经济数据荒，而且现 有指标显示劳动力市场正在走弱，而通胀却依然顽固。与此同时，美联储正受到严重的政治化影响，特 朗普政府在攻击这家央行独立性的同时，也准备在明年提名鲍威尔的继任者。 这对于市场来说，尤其是一个已经为完美定价的市场，无疑是一场它们最不需要的完美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, aligning with market expectations. However, this decision may reveal increasing policy divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) compared to the consensus seen in the September meeting [1]. Group 1 - In the September meeting, only one member, Fed Governor Milan, voted against the consensus, advocating for a more aggressive rate cut [1]. - The October meeting may witness "dual dissent," with Milan potentially opposing the 25 basis point cut again, while some regional Fed presidents may advocate for maintaining the current rates, indicating hawkish dissent [1]. - Barclays anticipates that hawkish members may support the rate cut, but would not be surprised if Kansas City Fed President Schmid or Richmond Fed President Musalem votes against the cut, favoring a hold on rates [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]

For traders, it’s a market defined by divergence, between a cautious Federal Reserve and a cornered European Central Bank, between resilient rhetoric and weakening fundamentals. The core conflict facing the Euro is that the ECB remains trapped by stubborn price pressures while the region’s economic fundamentals continue to erode. The tension is amplified by policy divergence, with the Fed turning dovish amid concerns about the labor market, while the ECB remains reluctant to ease. Internal risks with the ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has significantly depreciated against other major currencies since early 2025, and this trend may continue due to various factors including monetary policy divergence, questioning of the Federal Reserve's independence, large fiscal deficits, and declining foreign investor demand [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The Federal Reserve has recently begun to cut interest rates, while other major central banks have either stopped or are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles, which narrows the interest rate gap and typically reduces demand for the dollar [1] - Political pressure from President Trump to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates amid high inflation could undermine confidence in the dollar if investors believe the Fed cannot effectively control inflation [1] - Continuous government spending exceeding tax revenue raises concerns about a potential sovereign debt crisis, which could lead to a significant weakening of the dollar [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - Given the potential for further dollar weakness, investors are advised to consider adjusting their portfolios, with a higher allocation to non-US investment-grade bonds and emerging market local currency bonds [1] - Historically, global investors have been willing to hold dollars due to the strength of US corporations and the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency; however, the Trump administration's trade and foreign policy stance has weakened foreign investors' willingness to hold US assets, particularly US Treasuries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is showing cautious optimism in the first half of 2025, rebounding from tariffs, interest rate uncertainties, and debt concerns, with stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors demonstrating resilience [5][6]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Themes - De-globalization, monetary policy divergence, and debt sustainability are the three dominant themes in the global macroeconomic landscape [6][8]. - Concerns over tariffs and trade tensions have highlighted the trend of de-globalization, with initial fears easing as the year progressed [6][8]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US and UK has surpassed 100%, raising concerns about government debt sustainability and leading to a steeper yield curve [6][8]. Group 2: Market Performance - After a sharp sell-off in the first quarter due to tariff announcements, the stock market experienced a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 showing strong earnings performance [8][10]. - Global market earnings revisions appear to have bottomed out, indicating a potential turning point as earnings expectations remain resilient [10]. - The retail sector saw a decline in earnings growth, with a projected -1.7% in the second quarter, marking the first negative growth since the pandemic [14]. Group 3: Real Estate and Mortgage-Backed Securities - The institutional residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market showed resilience due to stable new issuance and improving market sentiment [16]. - Housing activity has slightly rebounded, supported by increased inventory and builder incentives, helping to offset affordability pressures [16]. - The outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance is expected to improve, with refinancing volumes anticipated to rise due to expected Fed rate cuts [8][19]. Group 4: Credit Market Outlook - Expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year are providing new momentum for the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market, with revised forecasts for refinancing and reset issuance [19]. - The overall credit fundamentals for CLOs are expected to remain stable, with a slowdown in rating downgrades anticipated by year-end [19]. - The projected issuance for BSL new AAA and BB rated bonds is expected to narrow to 125 basis points and 500 basis points, respectively, by year-end [19].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing public disagreement between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding monetary policy has escalated, particularly with Trump's recent announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which he claims is effective immediately [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve - Cook's response emphasizes that the President lacks the authority to unilaterally dismiss a Fed governor and plans to challenge this "illegal attempt" through legal means [3]. - Cook was appointed by Biden in 2022, with her term set to last until 2038, making this dismissal significant in terms of Fed governance [3]. - If Cook is ultimately removed, Trump could further influence the decision-making structure of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a majority of his appointees on the board [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The tensions between Trump and the Fed may increase selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries and contribute to a weaker dollar, although the dollar initially softened before recovering after Trump's announcement [3]. - The bond market showed mixed reactions, with short-term yields generally declining while long-term yields slightly increased, as evidenced by a 0.78 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.261% and a 3.56 basis point rise in the 30-year yield to 4.920% [3]. - The stock market remained relatively stable, with all three major indices recording gains, partly due to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed, as Powell indicated that a weak labor market could alleviate inflationary pressures [3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While loose monetary policy may provide short-term support for the stock market, there are warnings that a loss of central bank independence could lead to turmoil in the bond market and increased overall financial uncertainty [4].