Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing debate about Nano Imprint Lithography (NIL) potentially disrupting Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, highlighting that while NIL has interesting applications, it currently does not match the capabilities of EUV [1][27] - NIL technology was invented in 1996 and commercialized in 2001, with Canon acquiring Molecular Imprints Inc. in 2014 to position NIL as a successor to DUV lithography [4][6] - Canon's NIL technology, known as J-FIL, involves a unique process of applying photoresist and imprinting patterns, which theoretically offers advantages in speed and cost compared to EUV [7][12][25] Group 2 - The NIL process involves creating a master template, which is then used to produce working templates for wafer patterning, with significant challenges related to the durability and defect rates of these templates [14][29] - Key challenges for NIL include the lifespan of masks, overlay accuracy, mask pattern roughness, and customer feedback indicating that NIL is not yet ready for advanced chip manufacturing [29][35] - Despite theoretical advantages in resolution and cost, practical issues such as mask durability and defect rates hinder NIL's competitiveness against EUV technology [27][29][35]

Core Insights - Canon is thriving in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market, particularly with its Nano Imprint Lithography (NIL) technology, which is expected to bring a paradigm shift in optical lithography processes [1][34] - The semiconductor industry experienced a downturn in 2023 after a surge in 2022 due to COVID-19, but is projected to recover in 2024, with most equipment shipments expected to increase [1][9] - The market for front-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment is primarily dominated by European and American manufacturers, with significant market shares held by companies like ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials [2][6] Market Share and Trends - The market size for major equipment types exceeds $10 billion, with lithography equipment valued at $24.4 billion, primarily dominated by ASML (94.1% market share) [2][6] - Japan holds significant shares in several equipment categories, such as coating and developing equipment (94.5%) and vertical diffusion furnaces (82.2%), but these markets are relatively small [2][6] - Japan's market share in front-end equipment has been declining since 2011, with projections indicating a further drop to 21.7% by 2024, while the U.S. is expected to hold 44.3% and Europe 29.2% [9][11] Canon's Performance - Canon has shown strong performance in the lithography equipment sector, with its market share increasing from 14.5% in 2011 to an expected 32.7% by 2024, while Nikon's share has significantly declined [16][34] - Canon's strategy focuses on KrF and i-line technologies, where it has achieved a dominant market position, particularly in i-line with a projected share of 74.6% by 2024 [28][34] - The company is developing NIL technology, which offers a cost-effective and simpler method for creating fine patterns, potentially disrupting the current lithography market dominated by ASML [34] Future Outlook - If NIL technology is successfully implemented in semiconductor mass production, it could weaken ASML's dominance in EUV and ArF immersion technologies, positioning Canon to establish NIL as a new business pillar [34] - The NIL technology, while facing challenges related to defects from contaminants on masks, presents a lower-cost alternative compared to EUV systems, which are priced over 30.8 billion yen [34]