公 司 研 究 / 轻 工 制 造 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 众鑫股份（603091）深度研究 成本优势突出，海外产能布局领先，份 额有望提升 2026 年 03 月 02 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（首次） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：赵树理 证书编号：S1160524090003 证券分析师：张毅 证书编号：S1160524100002 相对指数表现 基本数据 -20% 6% 32% 58% 84% 110% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 众鑫股份 沪深300 | 总市值（百万元） | 8,389.72 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万元） | 2,528.82 | | 52 周最高/最低（元） | 85.80/37.85 | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 22.00/9.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 4.38/1.93 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 116.80 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 40.62 | | 注：数据更新日期截止 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | 相关研究 基本情况：中国纸浆模塑餐饮具头部企业，股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhongxin Co. plans to build a factory in the United States to enhance its global competitiveness, following its early layout of a factory in Thailand in 2023, which provides a first-mover advantage [1] - The company has accelerated its overseas construction efforts in response to the U.S. imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese pulp molded products, with a planned capacity of 100,000 tons in Thailand expected to reach full production by 2026 [1] - The construction of the U.S. base is expected to replicate the success of the Thailand facility, with increased R&D efforts and upgrades in production line automation anticipated, indicating a promising outlook for the company [1] Group 2 - As a leading enterprise in pulp molded food containers, the company maintains strong profitability, and its proactive overseas base layout is expected to support short-term performance recovery and long-term market share growth amid fluctuating trade policies [1] - Due to the gradual release of new capacities by competitors in Southeast Asia, the average price of overseas products may experience fluctuations in 2026, leading to a slight downward adjustment in profit expectations for 2026-2027 [1] - The company’s projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 302 million, 550 million, and 704 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +82%, and +28%, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned investment company in the United States through its Thai subsidiary, with an investment of up to $36 million for a project in Pennsylvania that will produce 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [3][4]. - The company is responding to supply chain shifts and trade barriers by expanding its global footprint, particularly in Thailand and the U.S., to mitigate risks associated with trade policies and tariffs [4]. - The Thai base has shown promising financial performance, with revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit margin of 23.2% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that the U.S. project could replicate this success [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.23 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit from 231 million yuan to 704 million yuan over the same period [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 302 million yuan in 2025, followed by a substantial recovery to 550 million yuan in 2026 and 704 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 82% and 28% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.26 yuan in 2023 to 6.89 yuan by 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pulp molded tableware industry, with a robust competitive edge derived from its advanced production capabilities and flexible manufacturing processes [5]. - The establishment of overseas production facilities is seen as a strategic move to enhance market share and adapt to changing global trade dynamics [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company is entering a performance realization phase with its Thailand operations, which are expected to drive future growth. The first phase of production has reached full capacity, and the second phase is under construction, set to launch in 2026 [4][5]. - Despite facing challenges from U.S. trade policies, the company is enhancing its overseas presence to mitigate risks and improve supply chain resilience. The initial ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duties has been established, with the company successfully transitioning its production capacity overseas [5][7]. - The company is diversifying its product applications beyond food service items, including entry into high-end industrial packaging for electronics, cosmetics, and health products, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.57%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, down 14.76%. The second quarter alone saw revenue of 303 million yuan, a decline of 17.87%, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, down 39.8% [3][6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 31.6%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 17.3%, down 2.1 percentage points. The second quarter margins were further impacted, with gross and net margins at 28.5% and 14.62%, respectively [6][7]. - The company’s Thailand operations generated revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit of 14.37 million yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit margin of 23.2%, which exceeds the previous year's levels [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 312 million yuan, 529 million yuan, and 648 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. This reflects a year-on-year change of -4%, +70%, and +23% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the alternative plastic sector, with a significant potential to increase its global market share [4][5] - The report highlights the urgent need for plastic alternatives due to severe plastic pollution, with various countries implementing strict regulations [12][13] - The pulp molding packaging market is expected to grow significantly, driven by global policy changes and increasing consumer demand for sustainable products [22] Summary by Sections 1. Urgency of Plastic Alternatives - The global plastic waste crisis necessitates immediate action, with only 10% of plastic waste being recycled since 1950 [12] - Governments worldwide are tightening regulations on plastic use, prompting leading companies to transition to sustainable alternatives [13] 2. Growth Potential in Pulp Molding - The pulp molding packaging market was valued at $5.11 billion in 2022, with a penetration rate of only 1.4%, indicating substantial growth potential [5][22] - China is a major production base for pulp molding, with a total capacity of 1.79 million tons [22] 3. Competitive Landscape - Zhongxin holds a dominant market share of 18.2% in China's pulp molding food service products, with a concentrated competitive landscape [36] - Despite increased competition, Zhongxin's gross margins remain significantly higher than those of its peers, indicating a strong competitive advantage [36] 4. Focus on Food Service Products - The company specializes in pulp molding food service products, which account for approximately 98% of its revenue [38] - Major clients include well-known global food supply chain companies, enhancing its market position [38] 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.6 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7% for revenue from 2019 to 2024 [41]