转自：证券时报 美国商务部对原产自中国、越南热成型模塑纤维产品反倾销、反补贴调查作出终裁结果阻断了该行业从 中国出口产品到美国，美国市场的客户将被迫寻找中国以外的供应源，致全球供应链格局重组。该行业 在国内的产能将出现富余，在非美市场上的竞争会明显加剧，对中国纸浆模塑生产企业造成较大冲击。 公司将加大对非美市场的拓展及销售，将积极筛选高潜力目标市场，搭建多元化销售渠道，推进产品在 多领域多用途的应用；将坚定全球布局的战略。 人民财讯9月28日电，众鑫股份(603091)9月28日公告，近日，美国商务部对来自中国和越南的"热成型 模压纤维制品"作出了反倾销终裁。众鑫股份为强制应诉企业，税率为283.89%，中国其他生产商/出口 商的税率为49.08%—477.97%。美国商务部对来自中国和越南的"热成型模压纤维制品"作出了反补贴终 裁。众鑫股份为强制应诉企业，税率为97.82%，中国其他生产商/出口商的税率为7.56%—319.92%。 ...

反补贴终裁结果方面，美国商务部对来自中国和越南的"热成型模压纤维制品"做出了反补贴终裁。众鑫 股份为强制应诉企业，税率为97.82%，中国其他生产商／出口商的税率为7.56%-319.92%。 新华财经北京9月28日电 众鑫股份公告，公司于近日获悉，美国商务部于美国时间2025年9月25日发布 公告，对原产自中国、越南热成型模塑纤维产品反倾销、反补贴调查作出终裁。 反倾销终裁结果方面，美国商务部对来自中国和越南的"热成型模压纤维制品"做出了反倾销终裁。众鑫 股份为强制应诉企业，税率为283.89%，中国其他生产商／出口商的税率为49.08%-477.97%。 众鑫股份表示，美国商务部对原产自中国、越南热成型模塑纤维产品反倾销、反补贴调查作出终裁结果 阻断了该行业从中国出口产品到美国，美国市场的客户将被迫寻找中国以外的供应源，致全球供应链格 局重组。该行业在国内的产能将出现富余，在非美市场上的竞争会明显加剧，对中国纸浆模塑生产企业 造成较大冲击。 众鑫股份称，公司将加大对非美市场的拓展及销售。积极筛选高潜力目标市场，搭建多元化销售渠道， 推进产品在多领域多用途的应用。持续优化产能布局和产品结构，打造适应新形势下 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is planning to start new production capacity in October and December 2025, with framework agreements signed with customers, indicating potential revenue growth [2][4] - The company operates in the pulp molding industry, particularly focusing on the U.S. market, which has a demand of approximately 220,000 tons [5] Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity and Market Demand - The company will add 100,000 tons of new capacity, leading to an expected total overseas capacity of 180,000 to 190,000 tons by 2026, with the market still facing a supply shortage [2][5] - The domestic factory's net profit margin is around 12% to 13%, while the Thai factory starts at 23%, although it has not yet met expectations due to high fixed asset investments and lower labor efficiency overseas [2][6] Customer Relationships and Revenue Stability - The Thai factory's main customers are U.S. companies, providing a stable income source with sufficient orders [8] - The company expects a good trend in the third-quarter financial report due to strong customer relationships [2][8] Future Expansion Plans - The company plans to build an additional 30,000 tons of capacity in Guangxi in Q4, while also upgrading the Zhejiang factory to enhance product competitiveness [2][10] - Discussions about expanding into Southeast Asia or other regions are ongoing, with a decision expected in Q2 2026 based on market conditions [9] Pricing Strategy and Market Position - The company anticipates capturing approximately 45% of the U.S. market share by 2027 through proactive pricing strategies that stimulate demand and suppress competitors [3][25] - The domestic sales price has dropped to the cost line of other factories, while prices in Thailand will remain stable due to higher demand [19] Financial Performance and Projections - The company aims to maintain revenue and profit levels in 2025 compared to 2024, with significant growth expected in 2026 and 2027, particularly in profit growth outpacing revenue growth [20][21] - The third-quarter orders and shipments are expected to show a significant increase, especially from the Thai base [16] Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a high gross margin of around 15%, significantly higher than competitors, which provides a competitive edge in pricing [5][26] - The integration of upstream and downstream supply chains has enabled the company to achieve higher gross margins [12] Additional Important Insights - The company is exploring alternative product categories in response to plastic bans, including biodegradable materials and white card paper products [13] - The acquisition of Dongguan Dafen aims to extend the company's reach in the pulp molding sector, particularly in the premium packaging segment [14] - The company has a current global market share of about 22%, with expectations to increase this share significantly by 2027 [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company intends to acquire a total of 30% equity in Thailand Far East International Environmental Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of 20.4 million Thai Baht, aiming to enhance its overseas production capabilities and mitigate uncertainties from the US "double anti-investigation" on its pulp molding industry [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The company will acquire 10% of the equity from Xiamen Jitel Trade Co., Ltd. and 20% from Far East Zhongqian (Xiamen) Technology Group Co., Ltd. [1] - The total transaction price for the equity transfer is 20.4 million Thai Baht, based on the registered capital's book value of Thailand Far East [1] - Following the equity transfer, the shareholders of Thailand Far East plan to increase capital by 67 million Thai Baht, with the company contributing 20.1 million Thai Baht at a rate of 1 Thai Baht per registered capital [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The total investment, including the equity transfer and capital increase subscription, amounts to 40.5 million Thai Baht (approximately 9 million RMB) [1] - The company will maintain a 30% equity stake in Thailand Far East after the completion of the investment [1] Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The investment is aimed at reducing uncertainties arising from the US "double anti-investigation" affecting the company's pulp molding industry [1] - The transaction is based on the principles of complementary advantages and collaborative development between the parties involved [1] - The investment will enhance the company's ability to expand overseas operations and improve service levels to meet diverse customer needs in the pulp molding sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Zhongxin Co., Ltd. (603091) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the alternative plastic sector, with a significant potential to increase its global market share [4][5] - The report highlights the urgent need for plastic alternatives due to severe plastic pollution, with various countries implementing strict regulations [12][13] - The pulp molding packaging market is expected to grow significantly, driven by global policy changes and increasing consumer demand for sustainable products [22] Summary by Sections 1. Urgency of Plastic Alternatives - The global plastic waste crisis necessitates immediate action, with only 10% of plastic waste being recycled since 1950 [12] - Governments worldwide are tightening regulations on plastic use, prompting leading companies to transition to sustainable alternatives [13] 2. Growth Potential in Pulp Molding - The pulp molding packaging market was valued at $5.11 billion in 2022, with a penetration rate of only 1.4%, indicating substantial growth potential [5][22] - China is a major production base for pulp molding, with a total capacity of 1.79 million tons [22] 3. Competitive Landscape - Zhongxin holds a dominant market share of 18.2% in China's pulp molding food service products, with a concentrated competitive landscape [36] - Despite increased competition, Zhongxin's gross margins remain significantly higher than those of its peers, indicating a strong competitive advantage [36] 4. Focus on Food Service Products - The company specializes in pulp molding food service products, which account for approximately 98% of its revenue [38] - Major clients include well-known global food supply chain companies, enhancing its market position [38] 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.6 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.7% for revenue from 2019 to 2024 [41]

Core Viewpoint - The company is transitioning from a traditional foreign trade factory to a global enterprise, focusing on "global production, global sales, and global service" to meet increasing international demand, particularly from the U.S. and Thailand [2][3]. Expansion and Production Capacity - The company is accelerating overseas capacity construction, with the Thailand factory being a crucial step, expected to fully meet U.S. customer orders by the second quarter and additional demand by the fourth quarter [3][4]. - The Thailand factory has achieved full production capacity for its biodegradable tableware project, with an annual output of 35,000 tons, completed in just nine months [4]. - An additional investment of $80 million will be made to expand the Thailand facility to produce 65,000 tons of biodegradable tableware [4]. Market Strategy and Product Development - The company currently derives approximately 52% of its revenue from U.S. exports and is focusing on expanding its market share in non-U.S. markets while developing new product lines beyond tableware [3][5]. - The company has a domestic capacity of 150,000 tons and is exploring ways to utilize this capacity effectively as U.S. orders shift to Thailand [5]. - The company is also developing high-end industrial packaging products, which have shown promising growth and are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [5]. Industry Position and Future Outlook - The company is a leader in the pulp molding industry, utilizing natural plant fibers like sugarcane bagasse and bamboo pulp, distinguishing itself from competitors who primarily use waste paper [6]. - The global demand for biodegradable products is projected to be substantial, with the company positioned to capitalize on this trend amid increasing regulations against plastic [6]. - The company anticipates that once the Thailand factory reaches full capacity, profitability will exceed that of domestic operations, with potential for revenue to double in the coming years [6]. Technological and Operational Excellence - The company has developed its production equipment and systems, which enhances its cost efficiency and market competitiveness [8]. - The focus on innovation and maintaining high-quality production processes is seen as a key competitive advantage, allowing the company to achieve higher profit margins than industry averages [8]. Challenges and Strategic Vision - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by the changing external environment but views these as opportunities for growth and transformation [9]. - The leadership emphasizes the need for a shift from a scale-driven approach to a value-driven strategy, aiming to create a robust industrial ecosystem [9].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on the company's strong market position and expected performance [5][20]. Core Views - The initial ruling of the "double anti-dumping" investigation by the US against China's pulp molding industry has been released, with the company facing a significant anti-dumping tax rate of 470.63% [3]. - The company is strategically shifting its production to Thailand to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with a projected 52% of its revenue coming from exports to the US in 2024 [4]. - The global market for pulp molding is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.60% from 2023 to 2030, indicating a broad future market potential [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 357 million, 421 million, and 485 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 15% [5][7]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,546 million yuan in 2024 to 3,216 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 24% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 3.17 yuan in 2025 to 4.74 yuan in 2027 [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic pulp molding market, benefiting from scale, research and development capabilities, and a strong customer base [5]. - The establishment of production facilities in Thailand is aimed at enhancing market competitiveness and addressing the challenges posed by the US tariffs [4][5]. - The company is actively exploring market opportunities in Europe, the Middle East, South America, and Australia to diversify its revenue streams [5].