公 司 研 究 / 轻 工 制 造 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 众鑫股份（603091）深度研究 成本优势突出，海外产能布局领先，份 额有望提升 2026 年 03 月 02 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（首次） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：赵树理 证书编号：S1160524090003 证券分析师：张毅 证书编号：S1160524100002 相对指数表现 基本数据 -20% 6% 32% 58% 84% 110% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 众鑫股份 沪深300 | 总市值（百万元） | 8,389.72 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万元） | 2,528.82 | | 52 周最高/最低（元） | 85.80/37.85 | | 52 周最高/最低（PE） | 22.00/9.71 | | 52 周最高/最低（PB） | 4.38/1.93 | | 52 周涨幅（%） | 116.80 | | 52 周换手率（%） | 40.62 | | 注：数据更新日期截止 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | 相关研究 基本情况：中国纸浆模塑餐饮具头部企业，股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pulp molding industry is experiencing high demand growth, with Chinese companies leading global expansion due to advantages in capacity, technology, and cost, resulting in a favorable growth outlook for the industry, which is rated as "overweight" [1][4]. Demand Side - The U.S. is the largest overseas market for Chinese pulp molding products, accounting for 41.3% of export value in 2024, with significant growth in imports since 2020 driven by policy, product advantages, and supply-side upgrades [10][11]. - U.S. plastic restrictions are clear and strictly enforced, accelerating the transition to alternatives like pulp molding, which offers lower degradation conditions, lower costs, and broader temperature applicability compared to alternatives like PLA and PBAT [12][16]. - The penetration rate of pulp molding in global markets remains low at 5.14% by 2025, with significant growth potential in food delivery and emerging sectors like electronics and agriculture [2][10]. Supply Side - The production process for pulp molding is continuously innovating, with advancements like semi-dry pressing and direct pressing technologies reducing energy consumption and enhancing product quality [30][31]. - China's production capacity is projected to account for 56.8% of global capacity by the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year production increase of 25%, while U.S. companies are exiting the market due to high costs and poor management [2][10]. Product Performance - Pulp molding products have lower degradation difficulty and better performance compared to other alternatives, with natural plant fibers decomposing within approximately three months, while synthetic materials like PLA require specific conditions for degradation [18][19]. - Pulp molding products are generally more cost-competitive than PLA and PBAT, with higher profit margins for manufacturers due to lower raw material costs [19][21]. Consumer Preferences - There is a growing consumer preference for pulp molding products in the U.S., driven by increased environmental awareness, with many consumers willing to pay a premium for sustainable packaging options [25][28].

Core Insights - The source of company growth lies in the alignment between industry characteristics and its own competitive strengths [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Excess profits of leading companies in the export chain often stem from precise segmentation within the industry, cost control know-how, and differentiated product and channel operation capabilities [2] - In growth sectors, leading companies in niche markets can more easily differentiate themselves, forming alpha. For example, in niche markets like artificial turf and pulp molding, despite high industry growth rates, the limited market capacity and few new entrants allow leading companies to achieve cost advantages, with market shares often exceeding 20% and maintaining high profitability (net profit margin of 15%-20%, ROE over 20%) [2] - In mature sectors, alpha is difficult to manifest on the cost side; excess capabilities come from branding, product innovation, and channel strategies. In industries with single-digit growth, domestic companies find it challenging to differentiate on costs and must focus on product and channel innovation [2] Group 2: Trends in Procurement and Supply Chain - There is a clear trend towards domestic procurement in the U.S., with Home Depot sourcing over 50% of its products domestically, and Lowe's sourcing 60% domestically and nearly 20% from China. Both companies are advancing supply chain diversification and adopting mixed pricing strategies [3] - Since 2020, companies in the light industry supply chain have begun exploring production capacity layouts outside Southeast Asia to better avoid geopolitical conflicts, achieve agile supply chain responses, and maintain customer relationships, with North America (U.S. and Mexico) being the primary choice [3] - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs in the U.S. by 2025, with Southeast Asia generally facing a tax rate around 20%, will further accelerate the transfer of production capacity from Southeast Asia [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the United States accounts for 41.3% of China's global exports of pulp molded products, significantly surpassing other markets like Australia (7.0%) and Vietnam (5.4%), indicating strong domestic demand in the U.S. for these products [1] Demand Side - The demand for pulp molded products in the U.S. is driven by three factors: policies, consumer preferences, and product advantages [1] - Major companies such as Starbucks and McDonald's are expected to continue their sustainable packaging procurement plans, which will further stimulate demand in the pulp molded industry [1] Supply Side - China is identified as the main supplier of pulp molded production capacity, contrasting with the declining production capacity in the U.S. [1] - The article suggests that the increase in penetration rates and the optimization of supply-demand dynamics will open up growth opportunities in the pulp molded industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The demand for pulp molding products is primarily driven by the need to replace rigid, cushioning, and breathable products such as plates, food containers, and egg trays, with limitations in producing hollow, transparent, and refined products like straws and films compared to PLA, which offers better thermoplasticity, transparency, and ductility [3] - The U.S. remains the largest market for China's pulp molding exports, accounting for 41.3% of the total export value, indicating strong domestic demand [8] - The growth in pulp molding exports to the U.S. post-2020 is attributed to policy-driven demand, consumer preferences, and improvements in supply-side technology and processes [8] Summary by Sections Pulp Molding vs. PLA Applications - Pulp molding is suitable for making rigid containers that can hold food, while PLA excels in producing thin-walled, flexible dining accessories [7] - Pulp molding products are more environmentally friendly and have lower degradation difficulty compared to PLA, which requires specific conditions for composting [19] - Pulp molding products are generally more cost-competitive than PLA, with lower raw material costs leading to higher profit margins for manufacturers [23] Market Trends and Policies - The U.S. has implemented stricter plastic regulations since 2020, promoting the use of pulp molding products [14][16] - The introduction of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) in various U.S. states places the onus of waste management on producers, further encouraging the shift towards sustainable materials [16] - In contrast, China's plastic policies are less stringent, focusing more on promotion rather than strict regulations [16] Production Capacity and Growth - By 2025, China's pulp molding production capacity is expected to exceed 2.5 million tons, representing 56.8% of global capacity, with a significant increase in production rates [51][56] - The production process has evolved from dry pressing to include semi-dry and direct pressing technologies, enhancing efficiency and reducing energy consumption [39][40] Competitive Landscape - U.S. companies focused on pulp molding are facing challenges due to high production costs, leading to exits from the market by several firms [58] - Footprint, a leading pulp molding company, faced significant financial losses, leading to its failed IPO attempt, highlighting the financial pressures within the industry [76]

Investment Rating - The report rates the light industry export chain as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The growth potential of companies is derived from the alignment of industry characteristics and their own competitive advantages [3] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in niche markets can achieve differentiation and higher profitability due to limited competition and market capacity [6][7] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as Jiangxin Home, Gongchuang Lawn, Zhongxin Co., Gujia Home, Yingke Medical, Songlin Technology, Jianlin Home, Zhejiang Natural, and Yiyi Co. [4] Summary by Sections 1. Company Growth Sources: Industry Characteristics and Competitive Matching - Niche market leaders often achieve differentiation and alpha due to limited competition and high growth potential, with leading companies maintaining a market share of over 20% and net profit margins of 15%-20% [6][7] - Zhongxin Co. benefits from cost advantages through equipment optimization and raw material selection, achieving significant savings in fixed asset investment compared to peers [9] - Gongchuang Lawn excels in R&D innovation and comprehensive production efficiency, maintaining superior unit profit margins despite market price fluctuations [18][19] 2. Overseas Capacity Migration: Accelerated Diversification - The trend of sourcing from the U.S. is evident, with major retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's increasing their domestic procurement [4] - The report notes that U.S. tariffs and geopolitical factors are accelerating the shift of production capacity to North America, particularly in response to the 2025 tariff changes [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the export chain can achieve excess profits through precise positioning in niche markets, cost control, and differentiated product and channel operations [4] - The report highlights the importance of innovation and agile market response in driving product iterations, particularly for Jiangxin Home, which has rapidly developed new features in its product lines [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of the U.S. market for pulp molding products, both currently and in the future, as part of its globalization strategy [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company's plan to invest in the U.S. is a significant aspect of its global strategy and aims to enhance sales and research capabilities [1] - The establishment of a factory in Thailand has provided the company with valuable experience for its U.S. investment [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - Products manufactured in the U.S. will have advantages in participating in specific market tenders, which will facilitate the growth of pulp molding products in the U.S. market [1] - The company will provide updates on the progress of the U.S. factory construction through official announcements [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhongxin Co. plans to build a factory in the United States to enhance its global competitiveness, following its early layout of a factory in Thailand in 2023, which provides a first-mover advantage [1] - The company has accelerated its overseas construction efforts in response to the U.S. imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese pulp molded products, with a planned capacity of 100,000 tons in Thailand expected to reach full production by 2026 [1] - The construction of the U.S. base is expected to replicate the success of the Thailand facility, with increased R&D efforts and upgrades in production line automation anticipated, indicating a promising outlook for the company [1] Group 2 - As a leading enterprise in pulp molded food containers, the company maintains strong profitability, and its proactive overseas base layout is expected to support short-term performance recovery and long-term market share growth amid fluctuating trade policies [1] - Due to the gradual release of new capacities by competitors in Southeast Asia, the average price of overseas products may experience fluctuations in 2026, leading to a slight downward adjustment in profit expectations for 2026-2027 [1] - The company’s projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 302 million, 550 million, and 704 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +82%, and +28%, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned investment company in the United States through its Thai subsidiary, with an investment of up to $36 million for a project in Pennsylvania that will produce 20,000 tons of pulp molded tableware annually [3][4]. - The company is responding to supply chain shifts and trade barriers by expanding its global footprint, particularly in Thailand and the U.S., to mitigate risks associated with trade policies and tariffs [4]. - The Thai base has shown promising financial performance, with revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit margin of 23.2% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that the U.S. project could replicate this success [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.23 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit from 231 million yuan to 704 million yuan over the same period [6]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 302 million yuan in 2025, followed by a substantial recovery to 550 million yuan in 2026 and 704 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 82% and 28% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.26 yuan in 2023 to 6.89 yuan by 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pulp molded tableware industry, with a robust competitive edge derived from its advanced production capabilities and flexible manufacturing processes [5]. - The establishment of overseas production facilities is seen as a strategic move to enhance market share and adapt to changing global trade dynamics [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic pulp molding industry, with a revenue CAGR of 22.79% and a net profit CAGR of 23.89% from 2019 to 2024, maintaining over 85% of its sales from exports [2] - The pulp molding industry is expected to benefit from global trends towards reducing plastic use, with the company positioned to capitalize on this shift due to its fully biodegradable and recyclable raw materials [3][45] - The company's strong mold design and manufacturing capabilities, along with a complete supply chain from mold to raw materials to production, provide a competitive edge and high profitability [4] - The establishment of production capacity in Thailand helps mitigate risks from trade disputes and enhances profit margins due to advanced production technology [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has maintained industry-leading performance and has a robust management team with significant experience in mold design and production [2][21] - The company has a market share of approximately 16% in the global pulp molding food service sector and about 20% in the domestic market [21] Investment Logic - The global consensus on reducing plastic production and consumption is driving demand for pulp molding products, which are environmentally friendly and cost-effective alternatives [3][39] - The company’s products are primarily made from natural fibers like sugarcane and bamboo, which are fully biodegradable and recyclable, positioning them favorably against other alternatives like PLA and PBAT [45][46] Production and Capacity - The company has developed a comprehensive supply chain that includes strong control over raw materials, mold design, and production processes, ensuring cost efficiency and high-quality output [4][24] - The Thai production facility, with an initial capacity of 35,000 tons, is operational and a second phase of 65,000 tons is planned, which will further enhance the company's growth potential [5][18] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.568 billion, 2.505 billion, and 3.131 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 296 million, 568 million, and 755 million RMB [6][10] - The expected EPS for the same period is 2.89, 5.56, and 7.38 RMB, with a target price set at 88.89 RMB based on a PE ratio of 16X for 2026 [6]