智通财经APP获悉，市场再次担忧全球最大产糖国巴西的甘蔗减产可能引发供应紧张，纽约原糖期货价 格连续第三日上涨，创下自2月21日以来的最长连涨纪录。据贸易公司Meir Commodities India Pvt.董事 总经理拉希尔·谢赫分析，2025-26年度巴西糖产量预计将降至3900万至4000万吨区间，低于此前市场普 遍预期的4100万吨。这一调整主要基于作物生长初期遭遇大面积干旱天气，导致单产水平出现下滑。 报告同时指出，若要推动糖价形成持续上行趋势，市场需要看到确凿证据证明巴西实际产量远低于巴西 蔗糖产业协会(Unica)当前公布的数据水平。目前市场正密切关注产区天气变化与作物生长进度，任何 产量不及预期的信号都可能加剧价格波动。 截至发稿，纽约原糖价格上涨 1.9%，至每磅 16.81 美分。伦敦白糖价格上涨1.6%;纽约可可价格上涨， 阿拉比卡咖啡价格下跌。 谢赫特别指出，当前市场价格还受到巴基斯坦实物采购需求的支撑。此外，作为全球第二大产糖国，印 度2024-25年度的糖出口政策备受关注——本年度出口窗口将于9月30日关闭，而新产季出口预计最早明 年2月才能启动，这意味着未来五个月全球贸易流将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main July contract rising 1.27% to 16.70 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract rose 1.5% to $472.40 per ton. The current market pressure is the increasing production in Brazil, and recent heavy rainfall in the central - southern Brazil may affect the crushing progress. After the sugar price rebounded from below the previous low, it's necessary to observe if a double - bottom pattern can form [6]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase of 1,295 contracts in positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas remained unchanged. Zhengzhou sugar did not follow the raw sugar's rebound and was weaker than expected. After the market closed, large speculative short - sellers continued to add positions tentatively, while hedging funds from spot seats continued to withdraw. The short - selling momentum of short - sellers to add positions and suppress prices weakened, and the possibility of a price rebound is relatively high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **New York Raw Sugar and London ICE White Sugar**: The main July contract of New York raw sugar futures rose 1.27% to 16.70 cents per pound, and the main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.5% to $472.40 per ton. The increasing production in Brazil is the main market pressure, and rainfall may affect the crushing progress. After the sugar price fell below the previous low and rebounded, observe for a possible double - bottom pattern [6]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase of 1,295 contracts in positions. Domestic spot prices were flat. Zhengzhou sugar did not follow the raw sugar's rebound. Speculative short - sellers added positions tentatively, and spot hedging funds withdrew. The downward momentum of short - sellers weakened, and a price rebound is more likely [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No relevant content provided 3.3 Data Overview - **24/25 Guangdong Sugar Production and Sales**: The cumulative sugar production in Guangdong in the 24/25 season was 654,500 tons, an increase of 122,800 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 654,500 tons, an increase of 223,600 tons year - on - year; industrial inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 100,800 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 100%, an increase of 18.97% year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangdong were 3,900 tons [10]. - **24/25 Xinjiang Sugar Production and Sales**: The final sugar production in Xinjiang in the 24/25 season was 814,200 tons, an increase of 255,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 618,800 tons, an increase of 231,400 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 76%, an increase of 6.65% year - on - year; industrial inventory was 195,400 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Xinjiang were 73,700 tons [10]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2566 million tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%. From April to May in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 3.8092 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.84%. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be exported was 3.247 million tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 3.0373 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased 7% from the previous week, and that at Paranagua Port decreased 11% [10].