Core Viewpoint - The New York raw sugar futures prices have fallen to their lowest level in five years due to rising expectations of global supply surplus, with a significant drop of 14% so far this month, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since December 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active raw sugar futures contract dropped by 2.43%, closing at 14.07 cents per pound [1] - Analysts from StoneX Group Inc. indicate that the significant drop in October highlights "structural major pressure" on futures prices, driven by an anticipated surplus of 2.8 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1] - Following Brazil's "Sugar Week," market estimates for the 2025/26 sugar supply surplus have been raised from an initial consensus of 2 million tons to 2.77 million tons, with potential for further upward adjustments [4] Group 2: Supply Factors - Wall Street analysts expect Brazil, a leading sugar producer, to maintain high sugar production levels in 2025/26, with multiple investment institutions raising their production and export forecasts for Brazil [4] - The core drivers of the anticipated surplus include increased production in Brazil, rising corn ethanol output, and India's potential recovery in sugar exports, which may exceed StoneX's current estimate of 1.5 million tons [4] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The rapid rise in the penetration of GLP-1 weight loss drugs in the U.S. is impacting sugar consumption, with surveys indicating a reduction in spending on sugary products by approximately 6% to 10%, thereby lowering marginal demand growth expectations [5] - The volatility of the USD/BRL exchange rate has also affected Brazil's export rhythm, with a weaker BRL favoring exports and further pressuring prices [5] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to traders' pessimism regarding the commodity market, as the CFTC has been unable to release data on large institutional investors and speculators since September 23 [5] - Recent price movements show a decline in New York raw sugar futures by 1.32%, with prices reported at 14.23 cents per pound, while London white sugar prices fell by 1.08% [5]

Core Viewpoint - New York raw sugar futures have reached a new intraday low since April 2021, currently down 2.29% at 15.36 cents [1] Group 1 - The decline in sugar futures indicates a significant drop in market prices, reflecting broader trends in the commodity market [1]

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over potential supply tightness due to reduced sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, leading to a third consecutive day of rising New York raw sugar futures prices, marking the longest streak since February 21 [1] - The projected sugar production in Brazil for the 2025-26 season is expected to fall to a range of 39 to 40 million tons, down from the previously anticipated 41 million tons, primarily due to widespread drought affecting early crop growth [1] - Current market prices are also supported by physical procurement demand from Pakistan, while India's sugar export policy for the 2024-25 season is under scrutiny, with the export window closing on September 30 and new season exports not expected to start until February next year, indicating potential short-term trade tightness [1] Group 2 - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory stood at 9.3 million tons, an 8% decrease from 10.1 million tons in the same period last year, indicating no surplus in the current sugar stock [1] - For sustained upward momentum in sugar prices, the market requires clear evidence that Brazil's actual production is significantly lower than the current data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring weather changes and crop growth progress in production areas, as any signals of lower-than-expected yields could exacerbate price volatility [2]

Core Insights - New York raw sugar futures weakened, with the main October contract closing down 0.92% at 16.20 cents per pound, while London ICE white sugar futures also fell by 0.6% to $465.00 per ton [1] - Brazilian sugar production data for early July was bearish, putting pressure on raw sugar prices, although there are still concerns about declining production in Brazil [1] - Zhengzhou sugar futures also experienced a slight decline, with the main September contract closing at 5718 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan or 0.76% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New York raw sugar futures fell by 0.92% to 16.20 cents per pound, while London white sugar futures decreased by 0.6% to $465.00 per ton [1] - Zhengzhou sugar futures saw the September contract close at 5718 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan or 0.76%, with a reduction in open interest by 25,642 contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - In the first half of July, Brazil's sugarcane crush volume reached 49.823 million tons, an increase of 6.411 million tons or 14.77% year-on-year [1] - The sugar production ratio in Brazil was 53.68%, up 3.79% from the previous year, while ethanol production increased by 2.36% to 2.194 billion liters [1] - Cumulative sugar production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season as of mid-July was 15.655 million tons, a decrease of 159,100 tons or 9.22% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Projections - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association projected an 18% increase in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, estimating total production at approximately 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in 2024/25 [1] - The total area planted with sugarcane in India for the 2025/26 season is expected to be around 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than the 5.711 million hectares in 2024/25 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main July contract rising 1.27% to 16.70 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract rose 1.5% to $472.40 per ton. The current market pressure is the increasing production in Brazil, and recent heavy rainfall in the central - southern Brazil may affect the crushing progress. After the sugar price rebounded from below the previous low, it's necessary to observe if a double - bottom pattern can form [6]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase of 1,295 contracts in positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas remained unchanged. Zhengzhou sugar did not follow the raw sugar's rebound and was weaker than expected. After the market closed, large speculative short - sellers continued to add positions tentatively, while hedging funds from spot seats continued to withdraw. The short - selling momentum of short - sellers to add positions and suppress prices weakened, and the possibility of a price rebound is relatively high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **New York Raw Sugar and London ICE White Sugar**: The main July contract of New York raw sugar futures rose 1.27% to 16.70 cents per pound, and the main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1.5% to $472.40 per ton. The increasing production in Brazil is the main market pressure, and rainfall may affect the crushing progress. After the sugar price fell below the previous low and rebounded, observe for a possible double - bottom pattern [6]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase of 1,295 contracts in positions. Domestic spot prices were flat. Zhengzhou sugar did not follow the raw sugar's rebound. Speculative short - sellers added positions tentatively, and spot hedging funds withdrew. The downward momentum of short - sellers weakened, and a price rebound is more likely [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No relevant content provided 3.3 Data Overview - **24/25 Guangdong Sugar Production and Sales**: The cumulative sugar production in Guangdong in the 24/25 season was 654,500 tons, an increase of 122,800 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 654,500 tons, an increase of 223,600 tons year - on - year; industrial inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 100,800 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 100%, an increase of 18.97% year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Guangdong were 3,900 tons [10]. - **24/25 Xinjiang Sugar Production and Sales**: The final sugar production in Xinjiang in the 24/25 season was 814,200 tons, an increase of 255,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 618,800 tons, an increase of 231,400 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 76%, an increase of 6.65% year - on - year; industrial inventory was 195,400 tons, an increase of 24,200 tons year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales in Xinjiang were 73,700 tons [10]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2566 million tons of sugar in May, a year - on - year decrease of 19.6%. From April to May in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 3.8092 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.84%. As of the week of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, the same as the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be exported was 3.247 million tons, a 4% decrease from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 3.0373 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased 7% from the previous week, and that at Paranagua Port decreased 11% [10].