新华财经北京8月21日电（王姝睿）受英国8月超预期的PMI数据提振，投资者认为英国央行在2025年再 次降息的可能性降低。 数据显示，英国8月综合采购经理人指数（PMI）初值升至53.0，创2024年8月以来最高水平，远超预期 值51.6。此次增长主要由服务业强劲反弹推动，服务业PMI从7月的51.8升至53.6。英国企业对未来一年 的商业活动预期达到2024年10月以来最乐观水平。 凯投宏观认为，英国商业活动表现强劲的迹象增加了英国央行更长时间维持利率不变的可能性。根据周 四公布的商业调查，本月经济活动加快，显示英国私营部门的活力强于此前预期。 S&P Global首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示，数据表明英国经济在夏季加速增长，订单数据仍 显示需求环境"不平衡且脆弱"。企业报告称，他们对近期政府政策变化的影响表示担忧，同时也对更广 泛的地缘政治不确定性感到不安。由于4月雇主工资税和最低工资上调，企业劳动力成本增加，各行业 均在裁员，但裁员速度较7月有所放缓。 尽管整体数据向好，但英国8月制造业PMI跌至47.3，为三个月以来新低，并连续第五个月低于50荣枯 线，反映出全球贸易环境对其造成的影响。 英国 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone private sector growth has reached its fastest pace since August of last year, with the manufacturing sector nearing the end of a three-year downtrend and the services sector showing continued strength [1][2] - The S&P Global Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.6 in June to 51 in July, exceeding analysts' expectations of 50.7 [1] - The manufacturing PMI recorded its highest value since July 2022, approaching the expansion zone, while the services PMI unexpectedly strengthened to 51.2 [2] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the Eurozone economy is gradually regaining momentum, with German factories playing a crucial role, but French industry must also stabilize for robust growth [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates after a year of consecutive cuts, with a potential 25 basis point reduction later this year [4] - The Eurozone GDP unexpectedly grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, but the full impact of trade tensions has yet to be realized [4] Group 3 - The PMI survey indicates that while U.S. trade policy uncertainty has impacted Eurozone economic growth, the economy has not collapsed, suggesting stability that may allow the ECB to keep rates unchanged for now [5] - The ECB's baseline scenario assumes tariffs remain at 10%, predicting accelerated economic growth in the coming years, while extreme scenarios involving higher tariffs could significantly slow growth [5] - The ongoing decline in service sector inflation is viewed positively for the ECB [6] Group 4 - Commodity prices did not decline further in July, but the strengthening euro and U.S. tariffs may exert downward pressure on inflation in the coming months [7] - The PMI is closely monitored as it reflects economic trends and turning points, although it may not directly correlate with quarterly GDP [7]