美元/离岸人民币期货合约 (CNH)

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人民币汇率升破7.2,多空“厮杀”下,谁在主导这波行情?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 23:26
今年5月以来,汇率市场多空博弈态势加剧。以美元兑离岸人民币汇率为例,从4月中上旬的1美元兑7.42元人民币一路震荡下跌。5月21日,美元兑离岸人民 币再度跌破7.2元关口。 在这背后,中美贸易紧张局势缓和、国内释放经济稳增长信号、美联储政策转向预期升温。市场对于中国经济和资产的信心显著提升,支撑人民币汇率的因 素正在积聚。 中美谈判意外破冰,市场迎来"减压时刻" 在全球贸易保护主义阴云笼罩的背景下,5月12日,《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》一经发布,市场为之振奋。这份声明不仅标志着此次会谈取得了突破 性进展,更被市场视为全球贸易摩擦降温的关键信号。 贸易协议的走向主导着市场情绪并影响着人民币汇率的走势。渣打中国宏观策略主管刘洁就表示,短期美元对人民币有望下行,人民币中间价不排除进一步 调强至7.17-7.18,但未来人民币汇率仍将取决于中国经济状况和贸易谈判进展。 LPR、存款利率同步下调,国内政策支持增强 5月20日,新一期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)出炉,1年期LPR降至3%,5年期以上LPR降至3.5%,均较上一期下降10个基点,这是今年以来LPR首次下降。 同日,六大国有银行、招商银行等多家银行宣布下调 ...
美元指数跌破98!这不是数字,是全球资本流向的转折点!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 17:00
Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Context - The dollar index (DXY) fell sharply by 100 points, breaking below the 98 mark, reaching a new low since March 2022, indicating a structural change in the global monetary system [1] - The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $130.7 billion in Q1 2025, the highest since 1992, exacerbated by the "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration [3] - Concerns over "stagflation" are rising, with Q1 2025 GDP growth dropping to 1.2% and unemployment rising to 5.1%, while March CPI remained at 3.5% [5] Group 2: U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. faces a "fourfold dilemma" with increasing stagflation risks, a national debt exceeding $36.2 trillion, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124% [5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are conflicting, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025, further suppressing dollar demand [6] - Political polarization and a crisis of institutional credibility are evident, with Trump's policies undermining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [7] Group 3: Global De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are increasing gold purchases, with a net acquisition of 1,045 tons in 2024, and China's gold reserves rising to 73.7 million ounces [8] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 59% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, the lowest since the Bretton Woods system [8] - Capital is flowing out of dollar assets, with institutions like Norway's sovereign fund shifting towards euros, yen, and emerging market currencies [8] Group 4: Renminbi Dynamics - The renminbi has faced depreciation pressure, with a year-to-date decline of 3.2%, driven by a negative interest rate differential with the U.S. [9] - China's Q1 2025 GDP grew by 5.4%, with industrial output increasing by 6.5%, indicating economic resilience [10] - The potential for long-term appreciation of the renminbi exists as the Fed's policy shifts and China's competitiveness in digital economy and green energy improves [11] Group 5: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,395 per ounce on April 21, 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations [12][14] - The demand for gold is influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and expectations of rising inflation due to tariff policies [14] - The supply of gold is tightening, with global mine production expected to decrease by 2% in 2025, while central bank demand rises to 110 tons per month [16] Group 6: Future Economic Order - The breaking of the dollar index below 98 signals a potential shift in the global economic order, with both risks and opportunities for the renminbi [17] - Investors are advised to focus on macroeconomic fundamentals and adjust asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with the evolving economic landscape [18]