二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金需求静态极限：购买力模型锚定远期空间 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 本报告深入解析黄金价格与各方黄金购买力的量价关系，围绕购买力因子分析和多因子模型展开。当 黄金处于历史高位时，全市场对黄金的交易主线已经基本认可并消化，为了对黄金长期上涨空间有更为具 体的想象依据，我们构建出黄金购买力模型——区别于市场上以利率、美元指数等已经脱钩的因子来构建 模型，回归黄金上涨本质，买兴显著大于卖兴，持有意愿较强的同时买家仍有子弹。本质上是在探讨，当黄 金成为流动性的避险港湾、去美元化下的最终去处，如果集合市场上各方购金力量，到底能多大程度上推 升黄金价格，以求定量地估算出黄金的极值高点。 模型结果显示，Lasso 回归模型拟合优度 R^2=0.875。考虑到自变量存在多重共线性问题，选择 Lasso 回归模型。经 10 折交叉验证，Lasso 回归模型的最优正则化参数 alpha 确定为 0.5373。在此参数下，模型 测试集均方根误差为 168.0382，表明其对目标变量的预测精度良好。再通过 B ...

Core Insights - Tether has emerged as a significant player in the global gold market, utilizing a Cold War-era nuclear bunker in Switzerland as a high-security vault for its gold reserves, which now total approximately 140 tons, making it the largest known non-bank and non-state gold holder globally [1][2] - The company's strategy involves a deep integration of cryptocurrency and gold, driven by a mutual distrust of government bonds, contributing to a surge in gold prices, which recently surpassed $5,200 per ounce [1][2] - Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, likens the company's role in the gold market to that of a central bank and anticipates that geopolitical shifts will lead to the emergence of gold-backed alternatives to the dollar [1][7] Gold Acquisition Strategy - In the past year, Tether purchased over 70 tons of gold, significantly outpacing most central banks, with only Poland's acquisition exceeding Tether's [2] - The company maintains a weekly acquisition rate of 1 to 2 tons of gold and plans to continue this strategy in the coming months [2][5] - Tether's gold holdings are valued at approximately $24 billion, with the majority being company-owned reserves, while a portion supports its gold-backed tokens [2][6] Market Impact - Tether's substantial gold purchases are believed to have contributed to a 65% increase in gold prices over the past year, positioning the company as a key new buyer in the market [3][4] - The World Gold Council acknowledges Tether's influence on gold prices but emphasizes that it is only one of many factors driving the current gold market dynamics [4] Competitive Positioning - Tether aims to establish itself as a leading player in the gold trading market, competing directly with major banks like JPMorgan and HSBC [5] - The company has recruited experienced gold traders from HSBC to enhance its market operations and is exploring active trading strategies to capitalize on price discrepancies [5][6] Broader Investment Strategy - Tether is not limited to physical gold; it is also acquiring shares in gold royalty companies, indicating a diversified approach to its gold investment strategy [6] - The company is developing a gold-backed stablecoin, Tether Gold (XAUT), which is expected to see significant market circulation, potentially reaching $5 to $10 billion by the end of the year [7][8] Future Outlook - Tether's gold strategy aligns with a broader trend of countries increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against dollar depreciation, suggesting a potential shift towards gold-backed currencies [7][8] - The company's proactive approach in the gold market positions it well to capture emerging opportunities as global economic uncertainties persist [7][8]