Core Viewpoint - Following the release of U.S. employment data, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the next meeting has increased according to U.S. interest rate futures [1] Group 1 - The U.S. employment data has influenced market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The increase in the probability of a rate cut reflects changing economic conditions and market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - A small group of aggressive traders in the UK options market is betting heavily on the Bank of England implementing more rate cuts than currently priced in by the market, despite inflation reaching an 18-month high, with potential returns exceeding 1000% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current Bank of England's base policy rate is 4.25%, and traders need it to drop to at least 3.75% to avoid significant losses [1] - If the base rate falls to 3.5%, traders could see returns of nearly £20 million from an initial investment of £1.5 million [1] - The market has significantly reduced expectations for aggressive monetary easing following stronger-than-expected inflation and wage growth data [1][4] Group 2: Speculative Bets - Swap contracts linked to policy meeting dates no longer indicate three rate cuts this year, down from a 20% probability earlier in the week [4] - The latest inflation data has led to a cooling of rate cut bets, although the Bank of England's Governor hinted at potential rate cuts if the job market deteriorates faster than expected [4] Group 3: Broader Implications - Analysts express concern that aggressive rate cut bets in the UK could influence the US interest rate futures market, leading to potentially irrational pricing based on labor market conditions rather than core inflation metrics [5] - The probability of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year has been significantly reduced to 75%, down from previous expectations of three cuts totaling 75 basis points [5][6] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders now believe the Fed is more likely to cut rates once this year, with a higher probability of action in October [6]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 782.80 CNY, with a reported price of 777.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a 0.06% increase, and a trading range between 773.64 CNY and 782.84 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures indicates a sideways trend [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Trump is preparing to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield [3] - The likelihood of an early rate cut has heightened concerns about potential inflation acceleration, which may lead to increased borrowing costs in the future [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.44% to 4.49% following the news [3] - Short-term US interest rate futures continue to rise as traders increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.7% [3] - The probability of maintaining rates in September has dropped to 32%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability at 64.9% and a 50 basis point cut at 3.1% [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 783 CNY and 813 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 765 CNY and 800 CNY per gram [4]

Core Insights - Short-term U.S. interest rate futures continue to rise as traders increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment indicates a growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the near future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now at 71%, up from 60% prior to the announcement [1] - The probability of a rate cut in 2025 is reflected at 46 basis points, showing little change compared to the period before the Federal Reserve's statement [1]