智通财经APP获悉，美国垃圾债市场上周五遭遇显著波动，收益率跌至40个月新低，同时，由于收益率大跌，债券价格随之飙升，创出近三个月来最大的单 日涨幅。这一走势与美联储主席鲍威尔的最新表态密切相关——其在杰克逊霍尔年会上释放"9月降息"的明确信号，市场焦点迅速从通胀风险转向就业市场 的潜在放缓。 图1 多重利好——企业盈利稳健、劳动力数据走弱以及降息预期——共同推动收益率回到2022年4月以来最低位，债券价格则实现5月以来最大单日涨幅。受此影 图2 响，企业债市场情绪明显改善，推动各级别债券收益率全集体下行。 具体来看，BB级高收益债收益率当日收于5.80%，创11个月新低，较前一交易日下降0.36个百分点，单日跌幅为5月以来最大。更值得关注的是，风险等级 最高的CCC级债券收益率大幅下行20个基点至10.58%，创6月中旬以来最大单日跌幅，而该级别债券上周五0.53%的收益率表现，亦成为两个多月来最佳单 日涨幅。市场分析认为，降息预期重燃直接降低了违约风险溢价，促使资金流向高风险高收益领域。 一级市场供给端同步释放积极信号。摩根大通最新报告指出，在6-8月发行量激增后，受益于当前收益率吸引力、利差收窄趋势及宽 ...

Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that tariffs will lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation in the coming months, but significant opportunities for long or short positions in overall duration have not been identified yet [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell advocates for patience regarding interest rates, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment goals and consider rate cuts later in the year as inflation is expected to decline [1] - Global central banks are adopting different policies in response to regional dynamics, leading to a general divergence between the economy and the markets [1] Government Bonds - In the Eurozone, the market expects the European Central Bank to further cut rates after a 175 basis point reduction, with long-term yields facing upward risks due to signs of demand recovery and low inflation expectations [3] - Japan is experiencing inflation pressure, with nominal GDP growth exceeding 5% year-on-year, but concerns over tariffs may hinder GDP growth and market confidence [3] - Investment opportunities may arise in UK government bonds as fears of fiscal irresponsibility lead to increased term premiums, despite signs of a weakening job market [3] Equities - The company maintains a moderate overweight in global equities, expecting positive earnings growth across major regions, although valuation remains a concern due to low risk premiums indicating market over-optimism [5] - Japanese equities are favored over U.S. equities due to valuation differences and ongoing corporate governance reforms, although potential policy headwinds may limit further overweighting [5] - U.S. equities are underweighted due to high valuations and market over-reliance on a few large companies for performance, with expectations for broad earnings growth being delayed [5][6] Credit Markets - Credit spreads have tightened back to historical lows after an initial widening, with a moderate overweight in credit spreads deemed acceptable in a non-recession scenario [8] - U.S. high-yield bonds have a total return of 6%-7%, attracting investors seeking arbitrage opportunities, supported by improved credit quality and low default rates [8] Commodities - The company holds a neutral view on commodities, with gold benefiting from structural factors and geopolitical concerns, although a cautious approach to new positions is advised [10] - Oil allocation has been slightly reduced due to expectations of oversupply by year-end, presenting a potential shorting opportunity, with risks associated with significant negative spreads [10]