盈利预测与投资建议：濮耐股份是国内耐火材料龙头企业之一，短期来看，国内耐材主业或触底；海外 耐材依托美国和塞尔维亚两大工厂业务稳中向好；第二成长曲线活性氧化镁正式启动，利润弹性可观， 近期公司与格林美签署战略合作补充协议，约定到2028 年底格林美意向订单量合计50 万吨，进一步保 障公司出货，考虑公司产能按计划顺利投放，近几年活性氧化镁有望呈现高增走势。考虑去年下半年以 来国内钢铁行业形势严峻，对主业经营产生一定扰动，叠加部分海外业务减值计提，我们下调濮耐股份 盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为2.3 亿元、4.2 亿元、5.9 亿元，对应PE 分别为 34X、19X、13X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：钢铁产量大幅下行风险；海外业务拓展不及预期风险；活性氧化镁产能投放不及预期风险 利润率走低主要受国内耐材降价影响，后续有望随海外两大业务占比提升而稳步回升。2025H1 公司综 合毛利率17.22%，同比减少1.85pct，其中Q1-Q2 毛利率分别为17.95%和16.55%，分别同比减少 1.75pct、1.93pct。 同比来看，毛利率有所下降主因系国内耐材价格同比继续下行；环 ...

Group 1 - The company and its chairman invested a total of 2.5 billion yuan in Shanghai Zhenliang Intelligent Technology, acquiring 11.43% and 2.86% equity respectively, which aligns with the company's strategic plan for emerging industries, particularly in domestic AI chip development [1] - Zhenliang Intelligent, established in 2020, has a net asset of 107 million yuan and a loss of 190 million yuan as of the end of 2024, but has already mass-produced two generations of AI chips, with the latest GPGPU chip expected to be delivered quarterly starting in 2025 [2] - The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with a net profit growth of 49.4%, indicating stabilization in its main business operations [1][3] Group 2 - The company plans to implement a second employee stock ownership plan involving 10 executives and 110 employees, which is expected to align the interests of core employees and stimulate long-term development [4] - Due to anticipated delays in the recovery of product prices and gross margins, the company has revised down its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2026, projecting EPS of 0.33/0.38/0.42 yuan for 2025-2027 [5] - The company is recognized with a target price of 7.59 yuan based on a 23 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 3.71 yuan [5]