丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨濮耐股份（002225.SZ） [Table_Title] 活性氧化镁供货元年 与格林美长单锁定 2026 年高增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2025H1 业绩：收入 27.9 亿，同比增长 3.6%；归属净利润 0.69 亿，同比下降 48%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 李金宝 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 濮耐股份（002225.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 活性氧化镁供货元年 2] 与格林美长单锁定 2026 年高增长 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露 2025H1 业绩：收入 27.9 亿，同比增长 3.6%，归属净利润 0.69 亿，同比下降 48%。 事件评论 单季 ...

盈利预测与投资建议：濮耐股份是国内耐火材料龙头企业之一，短期来看，国内耐材主业或触底；海外 耐材依托美国和塞尔维亚两大工厂业务稳中向好；第二成长曲线活性氧化镁正式启动，利润弹性可观， 近期公司与格林美签署战略合作补充协议，约定到2028 年底格林美意向订单量合计50 万吨，进一步保 障公司出货，考虑公司产能按计划顺利投放，近几年活性氧化镁有望呈现高增走势。考虑去年下半年以 来国内钢铁行业形势严峻，对主业经营产生一定扰动，叠加部分海外业务减值计提，我们下调濮耐股份 盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为2.3 亿元、4.2 亿元、5.9 亿元，对应PE 分别为 34X、19X、13X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：钢铁产量大幅下行风险；海外业务拓展不及预期风险；活性氧化镁产能投放不及预期风险 利润率走低主要受国内耐材降价影响，后续有望随海外两大业务占比提升而稳步回升。2025H1 公司综 合毛利率17.22%，同比减少1.85pct，其中Q1-Q2 毛利率分别为17.95%和16.55%，分别同比减少 1.75pct、1.93pct。 同比来看，毛利率有所下降主因系国内耐材价格同比继续下行；环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to various factors including demand fluctuations and credit impairment [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 between 66.6 million to 79.9 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 49.99% to 40% [4]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be between 51.3 million to 64.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 47.53% to 33.92% [4]. - The median net profit for Q2 is projected at 18.38 million yuan, down 72.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 2: Operational Developments - The company's subsidiary, Xiangchen Magnesium Industry, has recently launched a new project with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of high-efficiency precipitant, increasing the total capacity to 110,000 tons per year [4][6]. - The project involved an investment of approximately 35 million yuan and includes the construction of a rotary kiln and supporting systems [6][7]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The demand for active magnesium oxide has been disrupted, leading to lower shipment volumes than expected [5]. - The domestic refractory materials sector continues to face pressure due to weak demand from steel customers and declining overall contract prices, resulting in reduced gross margins [5]. - Credit impairment has been influenced by significant country-specific differences in customer conditions, with some overseas clients facing bankruptcy, leading to a 100% impairment recognition on certain receivables [5].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around a company involved in the aerospace and defense industry, focusing on components and modules. Key Points and Arguments Gross Margin Analysis - The gross margin for original components is approximately 50.3%, while the gross margin for modules is around 51.49%. Both have experienced a decline, with original components dropping nearly one percentage point and modules decreasing by about four percentage points [1][2][3]. Product Lifecycle Impact - The analysis of gross margin also considers the product lifecycle, indicating that early-stage projects typically have lower gross margins. As projects mature and scale, gross margins are expected to improve significantly [2][3]. Order Growth and Market Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in orders, particularly in aerospace projects and electronic components, which are expected to grow at a faster rate. The company is focusing on domestic military demands as the primary driver for orders in the first quarter [4][5]. Export Orders - Feedback indicates that export orders are performing better than in previous years, although the impact is not significantly noticeable. The primary focus remains on domestic military needs [5]. New Research Projects - The company is preparing for new research projects aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a long feedback cycle for demand in the aerospace sector. The company differentiates itself by having a broader customer base for its products [6]. Order Structure Changes - The first quarter of the year saw a significant change in the order structure, with a focus on compensating for delayed projects from the previous two years. The company is actively pursuing large projects to ensure they do not miss opportunities [7]. Revenue and Cash Flow Expectations - The company anticipates a noticeable improvement in cash flow and revenue recognition in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, as delayed payments from previous years are expected to be collected [9][10]. Annual Order Projections - The company maintains a positive outlook for the annual order volume, projecting it to exceed 10 billion, with a monthly average expected to reach 1.5 billion [8][10]. Credit Impairment Concerns - There is an acknowledgment of increased credit impairment in the first quarter compared to previous years, attributed to high account ratios and delayed payments. However, improvements are expected as the year progresses [8][9]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining relationships with large projects and ensuring that they are actively pursued to capitalize on market opportunities [7]. - The discussion highlights the cyclical nature of the industry, with a focus on adapting to market demands and project timelines [2][4].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of approximately 9 million yuan for the current reporting period, a decrease of about 59.81% compared to the same period last year, which was 22.39 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be around 1.6 million yuan, down approximately 93.40% from 24.25 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be about 0.02 yuan, compared to 0.04 yuan in the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The decline in net profit is attributed to decreased transportation demand, increasing penetration of new and alternative energy sources, and intensified competition in the refined oil industry, leading to a reduction in the price difference and sales volume of refined oil [1] - The company is undergoing a transformation in its trading business, with a contraction in chemical product trading and an overall decline in chemical product sales [1] - The company reported non-recurring gains of approximately 7.4 million yuan, a significant increase of about 497.91% compared to a loss of 1.86 million yuan in the previous year, primarily due to increased gains from the disposal of trading financial assets and changes in fair value [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway has been unable to recover an investment of 1.6 billion yuan made four years ago, highlighting significant financial and operational challenges faced by the company [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company has reported continuous losses for five consecutive years from 2020 to 2024, totaling over 4.5 billion yuan [11][12]. - In the first quarter of this year, the company recorded a revenue of 223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.62%, but still incurred a net loss of 43 million yuan, although this represented a 12.33% reduction in losses compared to the previous year [13]. - As of the end of the first quarter, the company's debt-to-asset ratio reached 69.31%, marking a historical high, with interest-bearing liabilities amounting to approximately 3.891 billion yuan [13]. Legal Issues - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway is embroiled in multiple legal disputes, with 36 ongoing lawsuits as of the end of 2024 [7]. - The company has faced challenges in recovering its investment in Yuhang Company, which has been stalled due to the latter's financial difficulties and refusal to comply with arbitration rulings [4][5]. Investment Background - In December 2019, Shenzhou High-Speed Railway invested 1.6 billion yuan in Yuhang Company to acquire a 13.25% stake, aimed at supporting the operation of a major railway project [3]. - The investment was contingent on the successful execution of the project, which has since faced significant operational setbacks, leading to a deterioration in Yuhang Company's financial health [4]. Asset Impairment - The company has recognized asset impairment losses of 1.426 billion yuan related to the Yuhang project [6]. - Cumulative asset and credit impairment losses over the past five years have totaled 3.591 billion yuan, contributing to the ongoing financial strain [12]. Business Strategy - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway has expanded rapidly through acquisitions, increasing its total assets from 3.589 billion yuan in 2015 to 12.828 billion yuan by the end of 2020 [10]. - Despite having a comprehensive industry chain and competitive advantages in the market, the company has struggled with the repercussions of aggressive expansion and significant impairment losses [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has undergone significant restructuring to address previous internal control deficiencies, including related party fund occupation and illegal guarantees, leading to a positive outlook for its financial stability and operational continuity. Group 1: Internal Control and Audit Findings - The company received a negative internal control audit opinion in 2023 due to unresolved issues related to related party fund occupation and illegal guarantees [2][3] - The company has completed the necessary rectifications and received a standard unqualified opinion for its internal control audit for 2024, indicating effective internal controls [6][7] - The audit procedures included testing the effectiveness of internal controls related to fund management and contract approval processes, with a minimum testing frequency established [4][5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Restructuring - The company’s asset-liability ratio improved from 107.32% at the end of 2023 to 74.44% at the end of 2024, indicating a significant reduction in debt levels [8] - The company reported a narrowed net loss of CNY 77.01 million in Q1 2025 compared to a loss of CNY 186.87 million in Q1 2024, suggesting a recovery in operations [8] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2024 and Q1 2025 were CNY 123.38 million and CNY 825.66 million, respectively, indicating sufficient liquidity for operations [8] Group 3: Compliance and Regulatory Matters - The company has resolved previous non-operating fund occupation and illegal guarantee issues through its restructuring plan, with no new incidents reported in 2024 [7][10] - The company has complied with the requirements set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding previous financial misstatements, and the impact of these issues has been eliminated [12][19] - The company has submitted an application to lift the delisting risk warning, asserting compliance with relevant stock exchange rules [13][19] Group 4: Asset Impairment and Losses - The company reported a total asset impairment loss of CNY 88.99 million for the reporting period, including inventory and fixed asset impairments [21][22] - Specific reasons for credit impairment losses were detailed, including issues with customer payments and project compliance [22][23] - The company has taken a cautious approach in recognizing impairment losses, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market and customer relationships [22][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth of listed banks in the fourth quarter has generally rebounded, with large banks benefiting from a low base in Q4 2023 and increased investment income and foreign exchange gains [2][6] - Most banks maintain positive net profit growth, with large banks seeing a comprehensive turnaround in net profit growth, while high-quality city commercial banks lead in growth rates [2][6] - The net interest margin decline in the fourth quarter was better than expected, reflecting accelerated improvement in funding costs [2][8] - Asset quality is generally stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while the provision coverage ratio has generally declined, supporting profit growth [2][9] - Retail risk in the industry is rising, with expectations of continued pressure on retail risk in the first half of 2025 [2][9] - Dividend ratios for large banks remain stable, with state-owned banks maintaining a high certainty of a 30% dividend ratio [2][10] Performance Growth - In 2024, most state-owned banks and city commercial banks achieved positive revenue growth, with a trend of accelerated growth in Q4 [6][20] - The net profit growth of large state-owned banks has turned positive, with high-quality city commercial banks maintaining leading growth rates [6][20] Scale Expansion - Credit growth has generally slowed, with high-quality city commercial banks continuing to lead [7][27] - State-owned banks have seen a decrease in credit growth after rapid expansion over the past two years, while high-quality regional city commercial banks maintain strong growth [7][27] Profitability - The decline in net interest margin has slowed significantly, with an average decline of 1.5 basis points for state-owned banks in 2024 [8][24] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for 23 banks has decreased by 14 basis points [8][24] Asset Quality - Among 35 banks, 24 have seen a year-on-year decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while 9 have remained stable [9][29] - The provision coverage ratio has generally declined, particularly for retail banks, reflecting a reduction in credit impairment provisions [9][29] Dividend Ratio - Most banks maintain stable dividend ratios, with state-owned banks expected to maintain a 30% dividend ratio [10][12]