Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.79 billion with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 69 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 2.79 billion, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 69 million, down 48% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 79% to 14 million, primarily due to a credit impairment provision of 32.14 million [2] Group 2: Market Environment - The domestic refractory materials industry is under pressure, with national production of refractory materials in the first half of 2025 at 10.6287 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year, and crude steel production at 515 million tons, down 3% [2] - Domestic sales amounted to 1.95 billion, a decline of 1.4%, with a domestic gross margin of 12.1%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Business Developments - The company signed a supplemental agreement with Greenme, committing to supply approximately 500,000 tons of active magnesium oxide from 2025 to 2028, which is expected to secure the company's profit base for the next three years [2] - The active magnesium oxide business is progressing steadily, with potential orders and a focus on markets in Indonesia and Africa, while production capacity is being established in the US and Serbia [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects revenues of 270 million and 550 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 32 and 15, indicating a buy rating [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨濮耐股份（002225.SZ） [Table_Title] 活性氧化镁供货元年 与格林美长单锁定 2026 年高增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2025H1 业绩：收入 27.9 亿，同比增长 3.6%；归属净利润 0.69 亿，同比下降 48%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 李金宝 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 濮耐股份（002225.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 活性氧化镁供货元年 2] 与格林美长单锁定 2026 年高增长 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露 2025H1 业绩：收入 27.9 亿，同比增长 3.6%，归属净利润 0.69 亿，同比下降 48%。 事件评论 单季 ...

盈利预测与投资建议：濮耐股份是国内耐火材料龙头企业之一，短期来看，国内耐材主业或触底；海外 耐材依托美国和塞尔维亚两大工厂业务稳中向好；第二成长曲线活性氧化镁正式启动，利润弹性可观， 近期公司与格林美签署战略合作补充协议，约定到2028 年底格林美意向订单量合计50 万吨，进一步保 障公司出货，考虑公司产能按计划顺利投放，近几年活性氧化镁有望呈现高增走势。考虑去年下半年以 来国内钢铁行业形势严峻，对主业经营产生一定扰动，叠加部分海外业务减值计提，我们下调濮耐股份 盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为2.3 亿元、4.2 亿元、5.9 亿元，对应PE 分别为 34X、19X、13X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：钢铁产量大幅下行风险；海外业务拓展不及预期风险；活性氧化镁产能投放不及预期风险 利润率走低主要受国内耐材降价影响，后续有望随海外两大业务占比提升而稳步回升。2025H1 公司综 合毛利率17.22%，同比减少1.85pct，其中Q1-Q2 毛利率分别为17.95%和16.55%，分别同比减少 1.75pct、1.93pct。 同比来看，毛利率有所下降主因系国内耐材价格同比继续下行；环 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][6]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in net profit due to increased credit impairment losses and a challenging domestic market for refractory materials, but it is expected to enter a growth phase with its active magnesium oxide segment [1][4]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a partner, ensuring a substantial order volume for active magnesium oxide, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth in the coming years [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 68.9 million yuan, down 48.26% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue in Q2 2025 was 1.454 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.93% year-on-year growth, but net profit dropped significantly by 79.34% [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.22%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices in the domestic refractory materials market [3]. Business Segment Performance - Domestic steel division revenue was 1.616 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.45% year-on-year, mainly driven by order volume growth [2]. - Overseas steel division revenue reached 769 million yuan, up 6.41% year-on-year, with significant contributions from operations in the United States [2]. - The new materials division reported revenue of 279 million yuan, an 18.25% increase year-on-year, largely from the commencement of bulk supply of high-activity magnesium oxide [2]. Profitability and Forecast - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 230 million yuan, 420 million yuan, and 590 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34X, 19X, and 13X [4]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as the proportion of overseas business increases [3].

摘要 格林美已基本确定采用濮耐活性氧化镁作为主要沉淀剂，回收率提高 2- 5%，MHP 含水率降低 2-3%。丽琴和华友谷业虽在探索，但尚未正式 采用，因需调整工艺和设备。 活性氧化镁沉淀效果优于氢氧化钠，因其含两个氢氧根。若国产活性氧 化镁能规模化生产，成本预计每吨可降低 3,000-5,000 元。目前仅濮耐 能稳定生产合格产品。 华友谷业评估直接使用石灰再生以降低成本，若石灰再生效果不佳，或 全面转向外部供应商提供的新型活性氧化镁产品。 活性氧化镁主要用于沉淀镍钴，理论上每吨镍需 0.6-0.7 吨氧化镁，而 液碱需 1.4 吨氢氧化钠。活性氧化镁采购价约 8,000-10,000 元/吨，液 碱折合 12,000 元/吨，成本优势明显。 印尼液碱依赖进口，价格较高（约 500 美元/吨），促使企业考虑自建 工厂，但受政策限制。活性氧化镁能提高回收率，降低 MHP 含水量， 改善产品质量，并可能提高产线生产效率。 印尼湿法冶炼项目快速推进，预计到 2030 年产能至少达到 50 万吨。 华友、青山、格林美等头部企业均有扩产计划，但部分项目尚未投产。 活性氧化镁行业壁垒在于原料矿石形态。濮耐西藏矿可生产轻 ...

Summary of Puyang Nayi Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Puyang Nayi Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Active Magnesium Oxide Production Key Points Supply Agreements - Puyang Nayi signed a priority supply agreement with Huayou for 150,000 tons annually, but supply is expected to be capped at 100,000 tons due to capacity constraints [2][5] - The agreement includes a basic price clause with potential adjustments based on the caustic soda index [3] Production and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Puyang Nayi's active magnesium oxide shipment was nearly 30,000 tons, with an annual target of 70,000 tons [2][10] - Major clients include Greenmei and Luomou, with Greenmei reporting a 10%-15% cost reduction from using Puyang Nayi's products [2][17] - The company plans to expand production in Tibet, targeting a total capacity of 170,000 to 180,000 tons by the end of 2025 and 300,000 tons by the end of 2026 [2][7] Market Dynamics - The African market is experiencing supply tightness due to increased production by Chinese enterprises, impacting prices [2][15] - Puyang Nayi's products outperform blended methods in metal recovery rates and efficiency [2][15] Financial Performance - Other income categories contributed 550 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with active magnesium oxide contributing tens of millions [4][13] - The company faced challenges due to the bankruptcy of Eastern European clients and price adjustments in domestic steel enterprises, affecting profit margins [4][13] Capacity and Expansion Plans - Current production capacity is 50,000 tons, with plans to increase to 300,000 tons by the end of 2026 [7][24] - The company has a mining license allowing for a theoretical capacity of 1 million tons, with potential negotiations to increase this limit [9] Challenges in the Refractory Materials Industry - The refractory materials industry is facing price declines and rising social security costs, leading to many companies halting or reducing production [27] - Government measures and subsidies may help facilitate capacity clearance and promote healthy industry development [27] Future Market Focus - Puyang Nayi may prioritize markets with higher profit margins if significant price differences persist [16] - The company is exploring partnerships with Huayou, Ningde Times, and others, with expected developments in the near future [28] Cost Reduction Opportunities - Production in Tibet is expected to lower overall costs due to larger equipment and reduced transportation costs [28] Overall Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 6.25 billion yuan and a profit target of 320 million yuan for the year, but faces pressure due to significant price reductions [27]

Summary of Conference Call for Hai Luo Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - Hai Luo Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the refractory materials industry in China, holding a market share of approximately 5% [2][3]. - The company is currently facing challenges due to the downturn in the steel industry, influenced by macroeconomic factors and real estate market conditions [3]. Key Points and Arguments Overseas Expansion - Hai Luo has shifted its strategy from product export to capacity export, establishing factories in the United States and Serbia, each with a capacity of 20,000 tons [2][4]. - The overseas revenue now accounts for over 20% of total income, which is higher than its peers [2][4]. - The factories are expected to enter a profit release phase by 2025, potentially contributing 200-300 million yuan in profit when fully operational [2][6]. Profitability in Overseas Markets - The profitability of overseas markets is significantly higher than that of domestic markets, with prices in the U.S. and Europe reaching 10,000 to 20,000 yuan per ton, compared to 4,000 to 5,000 yuan domestically [5]. - If production targets are met, the gross margin will substantially increase, positively impacting overall profitability [5]. Active Magnesium Oxide Business - Hai Luo has become the third-largest supplier of active magnesium oxide globally, leveraging high-quality mineral resources from Tibet [7]. - The global demand for active magnesium oxide is expected to double, from 300,000 tons to 600,000 tons, due to the increasing use in hydrometallurgy [7]. Future Growth Potential - The company plans to expand its production capacity in Europe, driven by increased infrastructure projects and post-war reconstruction in regions like Ukraine [8]. - Estimated sales volume in overseas markets could reach 300,000 to 400,000 tons, potentially generating over 1 billion yuan in profit [9][10]. 2025 Progress and Supply Agreements - In 2025, the company has entered a formal supply phase, with significant orders already secured, including a 500,000-ton contract with Gree for four years [11]. - This contract provides a strong endorsement and security for the company's supply chain, with expectations for further expansion into other regions [11]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic market is currently at a low point but is not expected to deteriorate further. Cost reduction and efficiency improvements could yield over 100 million yuan in profit if the steel industry improves [12]. Contribution of Magnesium Oxide Business - The magnesium oxide business is projected to contribute 250-300 million yuan in profit in 2025, with expectations to reach 500 million yuan in 2026 [14]. Valuation Assessment - The company's valuation is contingent on investor perceptions of its pricing model, with a potential growth space if profits of 20 million yuan are valued at a 10x P/E ratio [15]. Additional Important Insights - The company is actively exploring new markets and products, particularly in active magnesium oxide, which has shown significant growth potential [3]. - The high barriers to entry in the active magnesium oxide market due to resource scarcity and processing costs provide a competitive advantage for Hai Luo [7].

Summary of the Conference Call for 福莱股份 Company Overview - 福莱股份 is engaged in the production of active magnesium oxide, primarily for use in nickel extraction processes, and has established significant partnerships with companies like 格林美. Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - 福莱股份 has entered into a strategic cooperation with 格林美, which involves switching all three of its production lines to use active magnesium oxide. This change is expected to enhance metal recovery rates and production efficiency while reducing nickel manufacturing costs by 10%-15% [2][3][5]. - The active magnesium oxide market is expanding, with interest from other Chinese enterprises such as 力勤, 青山, and 华友, indicating potential for future sales growth [2][4]. Production Capacity and Plans - The company currently has a production capacity of 110,000 tons, with plans to increase this to 170,000 tons after technical upgrades. Additionally, there are plans to add another 120,000 tons of capacity by June 2026 to meet the demands of 格林美 and other potential clients [2][4][7]. - 福莱股份 has a mining capacity of 1 million tons per year in Tibet, theoretically allowing for the production of 450,000 tons of magnesium oxide [7]. Financial Performance and Pricing - The price range for active magnesium oxide is approximately 4,500-5,000 RMB per ton in the Indonesian market and below 4,000 RMB per ton in Africa. The company enjoys a gross margin exceeding 40%-50% due to its own mining resources [3][9]. - Direct costs for transporting products to major cities like Wuhan or Shanghai are around 2,000 RMB per ton [10]. Strategic Partnerships and Agreements - The three-year supply agreement with 格林美 guarantees a minimum supply of 150,000 tons annually, which is crucial for the stability of their production lines [3][11]. - The company is also exploring partnerships with other nickel ore enterprises, with 青山 planning to start production in 2026 and 华友 expressing interest in long-term cooperation [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - The refractory materials business faces pricing pressures from domestic steel companies, but there is increasing demand in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. where sales are expected to reach 15,000 tons in 2025 [3][16]. - The company is optimistic about the growth of its active magnesium oxide sales, with expectations of steady increases in the coming years due to new client acquisitions and existing client demand [6]. Future Outlook and Investment Plans - 福莱股份 plans to continue investing in new projects, with significant capital expenditure anticipated in 2025 and 2026. The company may consider financing options to support these investments [20]. - The company aims to balance its focus on domestic refractory materials, overseas market expansion, and new materials, particularly in high-efficiency sedimentation agents and hydrometallurgy processes [21]. Conclusion - 福莱股份 is well-positioned in the active magnesium oxide market, with strong partnerships and a clear growth strategy. The company is navigating challenges in the refractory materials sector while capitalizing on opportunities in new materials and international markets.

Group 1: Strategy - The main contradiction in investor expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates, with the decline in the risk-free rate being a key driver for the upward adjustment of valuations in the Chinese stock market in 2025 [2][4] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions and increase their allocation to China [2] Group 2: Macro Overview - Progress in US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted global market sentiment, leading to a general rise in global stock markets [2][8] - The US real estate market remains weak under high interest rates and uncertainty, while manufacturing PMI has weakened but the service sector remains strong, indicating economic resilience [2][8] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Puyang's announcement of a strategic cooperation agreement with Greeenmei indicates an unexpected procurement scale of 500,000 tons, confirming customer recognition of active magnesium oxide [3][16] - The penetration in the nickel extraction field is expected to accelerate, and profitability may exceed expectations due to customer expansion [3][16] Group 4: Insurance Industry - The recent announcement of a new research value for life insurance has triggered a reduction in the preset interest rate, which is expected to improve the risk of interest spread losses [3][19] - Some insurance companies have announced plans to switch to new products in September, which is beneficial for improving interest spread risk [3][21]

Summary of Puyang Refractories Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Puyang Refractories (濮耐股份) - **Industry**: Refractory materials and magnesium oxide production Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Partnership with Greenme**: Puyang Refractories has entered a strategic cooperation with Greenme to lock in the price of active magnesium oxide for the next three years, with annual discussions to adjust prices based on market conditions [2][6][11] 2. **Cost Reduction**: Greenme's adoption of Puyang's magnesium oxide route has led to a cost reduction of 10% to 15%, translating to a decrease of approximately 7,000 to 10,000 RMB per ton of nickel metal [2][10] 3. **Production Capacity**: The theoretical supply limit for active magnesium oxide is 450,000 tons. Current production capacity in Qinghai and Tibet is 110,000 tons, with plans to increase to 170,000 tons by the end of 2025 and 300,000 tons by mid-2026 [2][8][17] 4. **Mining Reserves**: Puyang has confirmed mining reserves of 48 million tons, with potential future reserves exceeding 100 million tons. The company plans to negotiate with local governments to expand its mining licenses [16][32] 5. **Production Efficiency**: The efficiency of Puyang's active magnesium oxide is over 20 times higher than that of liquid alkali, with a 30% overall production efficiency improvement, significantly enhancing metal recovery rates [2][10] 6. **Logistics Optimization**: Adjustments in transportation methods from Tibet to Yibin or Wuhan ports are expected to save 200 to 500 RMB per ton in shipping costs compared to previous methods from Qinghai [3][21] 7. **Market Conditions**: The refractory materials industry is currently facing low profitability, with many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit. However, potential price recovery is anticipated in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [5][24][25] 8. **U.S. Operations**: The U.S. factory achieved profitability in Q2 2025, with expectations for significant contributions to overall company profits as order volumes increase [5][34] 9. **Future Pricing Strategy**: The pricing mechanism with Greenme is designed to remain stable for three years, with potential adjustments based on market conditions and the introduction of new customers [6][11][23] 10. **Competitive Advantages**: Puyang's core competitive advantages include unique mining resources, long-term expansion capabilities, and the potential for price increases as new customers are onboarded [32][35] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Large Orders**: Large orders from clients like Greenme are expected to lower production costs through economies of scale and fixed cost dilution [18][19] - **Challenges in Africa**: Puyang has faced challenges in the African market due to logistics and political instability, prompting a reassessment of strategies in that region [28][29] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for Puyang Refractories is positive, with expectations for recovery in the refractory materials sector and continued growth in the active magnesium oxide business [35]