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农业行业周报:猪价在旺季后或存回调压力-20260210
Shanxi Securities· 2026-02-10 06:26
Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]