行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 30 周周报："反内卷"下的生猪板块观点 1、生猪板块：高质量发展大会继续强调减产，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）本周生猪&仔猪价格震荡。截至7 月26 日，全国生猪均价14.81 元/kg，较上周末持平（智农通）；本周7kg 仔猪和 50kg 二元母猪价格为 440 元/ 头和 1628 元/头。供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.48kg（环比-0.35kg），历史同期仅低于2021 年，150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为5.14%（环比-0.02pct）， 需求端，天气炎热加之学校放假，终端白条走货平平，全国宰量维持低位，本周屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.07%。鉴于现阶段出栏均重仍处历史同期 高位，近期天气炎热或加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈走弱趋势。 2）农业农村部 23 日召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会。会议强调要严格落实产能调控举措，适当调减能繁母猪存栏，减少二次育肥，控制肥猪出 栏体重，严控新增产能。我们认为，生猪产业面临产能阶段性偏高等问题，政策引导减产&供强需弱情况下，后续产能有望停止增长趋势。 3）重视生猪板块低估值、预期差！在 25 ...

公司简称：源飞宠物 股票代码：001222 是否存在 $\mathbb{Z}\mathbb{Z}\mathbb{Z}\mathbb{Z}$ ($\mathbb{Z}$) 事项 备注 号 /否/不适 用） 上市公司合规性要求 最近一个会计年度财务会计报告是否未被注册会计师出具否定 意见或者无法表示意见的审计报告 最近一个会计年度财务报告内部控制是否未被注册会计师出具 否定意见或无法表示意见的审计报告 上市后最近 36 个月内是否未出现过未按法律法规、公司章程、 公开承诺进行利润分配的情形 激励对象合规性要求 是否未包括单独或合计持有上市公司 5%以上股份的股东或实际 控制人及其配偶、父母、子女 是否最近 12 个月内未被中国证监会及其派出机构认定为不适当 人选 是否最近 12 个月内未因重大违法违规行为被中国证监会及其派 出机构行政处罚或者采取市场禁入措施 是否不存在《公司法》规定的不得担任公司董事、高级管理人员 情形 激励对象预留权益比例是否未超过本次股权激励计划拟授予权 益数量的 20% 激励对象为董事、高管的，股权激励计划草案是否已列明其姓名、 职务、获授数量 激励对象为董事、高管的，是否设立绩效考核指标 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [2][51]. Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing a significant shift from "basic subsistence" consumption to "quality upgrade" consumption, with a notable 73% year-on-year increase in sales of pet products in live streaming sessions [4][11]. - The 618 shopping festival saw total sales in the pet food sector reach 7.5 billion yuan, indicating resilience in demand and structural upgrades within the industry [5][19]. - The rise of domestic brands is evident, with a substantial increase in the number of new products launched during the 618 festival, reflecting a strong response to consumer demand for quality and innovation [16][19]. Summary by Sections Live Streaming Sales - Sales of pet products in Li Jiaqi's live streaming room increased by 73% year-on-year, with essential items like staple food, snacks, and cat litter making up 92% of total sales [10][11]. - The new generation of pet owners (67% being post-90s and post-00s) is shifting their purchasing criteria from "having food" to "prioritizing ingredient lists," emphasizing the importance of quality and health in pet food [4][10]. 618 Shopping Festival Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival saw pet food sales reach 7.5 billion yuan, showcasing the industry's robust demand and structural upgrades [5][19]. - The competition landscape is evolving, with platforms like Taobao and Tmall shifting focus from price wars to long-term value, promoting a healthier growth model based on brand loyalty and consumer engagement [5][19]. Offline Marketing Strategies - Brands are increasingly adopting experiential marketing strategies to enhance consumer engagement and drive premiumization, with examples including themed pop-up stores and integrated service models [6][32][41]. - The "4S model" by Chaoyun Group integrates various pet services, creating a comprehensive service ecosystem that enhances customer experience and brand loyalty [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands that are rapidly emerging in the pet economy, particularly those aligned with the dual themes of "domestic substitution" and "consumption upgrade." Recommended stocks include: Guibao Pet, Petty Co., Zhongchong Co., and Lusi Co., with a watch on Chaoyun Group [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights significant changes in agricultural programs at universities in response to industry demands and national strategies, particularly focusing on health and technology integration [1][7]. Group 1: New Programs and Specializations - Hunan Agricultural University has introduced a new major in Food Nutrition and Health, aligning with the "Healthy China" national strategy and focusing on key areas such as food nutrition and health data management [3]. - Shandong Agricultural University has established a new major in Agricultural Intelligent Equipment Engineering, set to enroll students in 2025, addressing the growing demand for smart agricultural machinery in the context of agricultural modernization [5][18]. - The introduction of a new undergraduate program in Animal Science (Companion Animals) at China Agricultural University reflects the rising interest in the pet industry, with a focus on urbanization and the development of related sectors [9][11]. Group 2: Educational Innovations - Universities are exploring innovative teaching methods, such as the application of artificial intelligence in agricultural education at Peking University and the establishment of specialized classes at Henan Agricultural University to enhance AI literacy [8]. - The new Companion Animal program includes core courses that are closely aligned with market needs, such as pet grooming, health, and equestrian culture, indicating a strong employment outlook for graduates [17]. Group 3: Market Trends and Employment Opportunities - The pet consumption market in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in demand for pet-related services and products, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for the industry [15]. - Experts anticipate that the introduction of new agricultural programs will attract talented students, thereby promoting the healthy and rapid development of the pet industry [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The supply contraction has reached a point where the average price of live pigs is expected to rise, with the national average price at 14.74 yuan/kg as of June 29, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.45 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 3.17% [4][13] - The profit of pig farming enterprises is expected to maintain high growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by increased output, heavier average weights, and reduced costs [5][23] - The investment logic for the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive allocation strategy [6][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q2 2025, the average price of live pigs is projected at 14.55 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 11.22%, while the cost of pig farming has decreased to 13.38 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 2.92% [5][23] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.99 kg/head, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.07% in the total output of 12 major listed pig companies [5][23] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index underperformed the broader market by 1.11 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% and the agricultural index increasing by 0.80% [34][36] - The aquaculture sector led the gains, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Biological Shares (+9.83%) and Spring Snow Food (+9.82%) [34][38] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, the national average price for live pigs was 14.72 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price for piglets was 31.6 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg [41][44] - The feed price ratio for pigs was recorded at 4.38:1, indicating the profitability dynamics in the sector [41] Recommendations - The report recommends actively allocating investments in leading pig companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as well as in the feed sector benefiting from strong overseas demand [6][30]

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% during the "618" shopping festival, and pet transaction users increasing by 32% year-on-year, with new pet owners rising by 39% [3] Group 2: Pork Prices - As of June 20, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.22 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [4] - The average weight of market pigs was 128.28 kg, down 0.54 kg week-on-week, with a national frozen product inventory rate of 14.04%, up 0.15 percentage points [4] Group 3: Chicken Prices - As of June 20, the price of white feather broilers was 7.12 yuan/kg, down 2.06% week-on-week, while the price of chick was 1.86 yuan/bird, down 32.12% week-on-week [5][6] - The decline in chicken prices is attributed to cautious purchasing by distributors and losses faced by slaughter enterprises, leading to a sustained low price environment [5] Group 4: Grain Prices - As of June 20, corn prices averaged 2417.06 yuan/ton, up 0.47% week-on-week; soybean meal averaged 3015.14 yuan/ton, up 1.59%; and wheat averaged 2441.67 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [7] - Corn prices are supported by adverse weather affecting supply and traders' pricing strategies, while soybean meal prices are influenced by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7]

Core Insights - The establishment of a specialized undergraduate program in "Animal Science (Companion Animals)" at China Agricultural University aims to address the growing demand for professionals in the pet industry, which is experiencing significant growth in China [1][2] Industry Overview - The pet economy in China is thriving, with the urban pet consumption market expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, and the number of urban pet dogs and cats surpassing 120 million [1] - The pet market is diversifying, with services such as medical care, grooming, training, and boarding becoming increasingly common, alongside a wide range of products including pet food, health supplements, and toys [1] Talent Gap - There is a notable talent shortage in the pet industry, with approximately 40,000 licensed veterinarians working in pet medical care across over 30,000 pet hospitals, indicating a severe lack of qualified professionals [1] - Positions such as pet groomers, health caregivers, and trainers are in high demand, highlighting the need for specialized education and training in the field [1][2] Educational Initiatives - The new program at China Agricultural University includes courses on companion animal breeding, nutritional metabolism, feed processing, reproductive physiology, welfare, and behavior, aligning with market needs and academic rigor [2] - Graduates will have opportunities in various sectors, including research, technical consulting, and pet food production, contributing to the professionalization of the industry [2] Public Awareness and Knowledge Dissemination - The increasing involvement of pets in public life, such as expanded pet transport services on high-speed trains, underscores the importance of responsible pet ownership and the need for scientific knowledge dissemination [3] - The lack of reliable sources for pet care knowledge often leads to misinformation, making the role of educational institutions crucial in promoting accurate information and improving societal awareness of responsible pet ownership [3]

Core Insights - The "pet economy" is expanding, with new pet experience stores emerging in shopping malls, providing consumers with opportunities to interact with animals for a low cost, enhancing the shopping experience for families and young people [1][2] Industry Overview - The pet consumption market in urban areas is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, with a pet population of 124.11 million, reflecting a 2.1% increase from 2023 [1] - In major cities, shopping malls are increasingly incorporating pet-related businesses, with over 40 pet experience stores in some first-tier cities and 10-30 in new first-tier cities [1] Business Model - Pet experience stores charge between 30 to 100 yuan per visit, with discounts available through online group purchases. Some stores offer membership services and additional benefits [4] - These stores also engage in pet sales and provide related products and care services, creating a "experience + retail" business model [4] Market Trends - Current pet-related stores in malls are categorized into traditional pet shops, comprehensive pet zoos, and small exotic pet experience stores. The development of pet experience stores is influenced by factors such as rental costs and brand recognition [4] - There is a potential trend towards establishing comprehensive pet zoos that can cater to both children's entertainment and adult leisure needs [4] Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that while capitalizing on the pet economy, there should be a focus on establishing better animal welfare standards and regulatory mechanisms to ensure sustainable development of the "pet economy" [4]

以下文章来源于后浪研究所 ，作者张晶、薇薇子 他完全没想过，养育子女居然如此琐碎。女儿是23年5月出生的。 他全职带娃的经历，几乎就是性转版的"母职惩罚"： 时间全部被孩子挤占，哄娃哄到想崩 溃，抱孩子抱到腱鞘炎，每天忙于洗奶瓶、换尿不湿、哄睡、遛娃的各种带娃流水线工作中。 除了身体疲惫，心理上也承受了很大的压力。在他选择成为一名全职爸爸前，他是一家公司的中层，月入2万，过着典型的三线城市中产的生活。但是，全 职带娃后，收入骤降，没有社交，每天困于看不到尽头的琐事里，常常令他感到价值感缺失。 全职带娃两年，他从一个爱穿爱玩留着脏辫的潮流精神小伙，变成了眼里只有娃的全职奶爸。他说，他已经完全没有自我了。 全职带娃不仅让他忽略了自己，也忽略了另一半。王珉和太太经常因为带娃的琐事争吵，去年10月，他们决定离婚。 当养育子女的琐事，落到男性身上。 文 ｜ 张晶 编辑 ｜ 薇薇子 来源｜ 后浪研究所（ID：youth36kr） 封面来源 ｜ 《小夫妻》剧照 全职带娃一年多，90后全职爸爸王珉抑郁了。 去年夏天开始，他经常失眠夜醒，暴瘦30斤，动不动就哭，状态很差，遇到女儿茉莉不好哄的时候，甚至有揍孩子一顿的冲动。 后浪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by stay-at-home fathers, highlighting the emotional and physical toll of parenting, and the societal expectations that often lead to feelings of isolation and depression among men who take on this role [2][3][4]. Group 1: Personal Experiences of Stay-at-Home Fathers - The experience of being a full-time dad can lead to significant mental health issues, as illustrated by the case of Wang Min, who suffered from depression and anxiety after taking on the role [2][3][18]. - The transition from a professional life to full-time parenting can result in a loss of identity and social connections, leading to feelings of loneliness and frustration [15][19]. - The physical demands of parenting, such as carrying a growing child and managing daily tasks, can lead to health issues like tendonitis [8][11]. Group 2: Societal Perspectives on Parenting Roles - A growing number of men express a willingness to become stay-at-home dads, with 37.76% of surveyed men indicating interest in this role [3]. - The article highlights a significant information gap between men and women regarding parenting responsibilities, with many men unaware of the complexities involved in child-rearing [3][27]. - The concept of "motherhood penalty" is extended to fathers, suggesting that men also face challenges and societal pressures when they take on full-time parenting roles [3][27]. Group 3: Relationship Dynamics - The strain of parenting responsibilities can lead to conflicts between partners, as seen in Wang Min's relationship, which ultimately ended in divorce [3][18]. - Communication issues often arise, with partners failing to understand the challenges faced by the stay-at-home parent, leading to resentment and misunderstandings [16][18]. - The article suggests that a division of labor based on strengths can improve parenting experiences, with men providing physical support and women focusing on details [24].