资金流向方面，主力资金净流入58.92万元，特大单买入391.09万元，占比8.98%，卖出310.35万元，占 比7.12%；大单买入673.48万元，占比15.46%，卖出695.30万元，占比15.96%。 立华股份今年以来股价涨1.45%，近5个交易日涨1.30%，近20日涨5.62%，近60日跌9.46%。 1月8日，立华股份盘中上涨2.04%，截至09:52，报21.05元/股，成交4356.21万元，换手率0.33%，总市 值176.25亿元。 资料显示，江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司位于江苏省常州市武进区牛塘镇漕溪路66号，成立日期1997 年6月19日，上市日期2019年2月18日，公司主营业务涉及黄羽鸡、生猪、肉鹅的生产与销售。主营业务 收入构成为：鸡收入75.84%，猪23.31%，鹅0.86%。 立华股份所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-肉鸡养殖。所属概念板块包括：猪肉概念、食品安全、养 鸡、中盘、社保重仓等。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至9月30日，立华股份股东户数1.60万，较上期减少23.50%；人均流通股39351股，较上期增加 30.72%。2025年1月-9月，立华股份实现营业收 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局 生猪养殖板块。元旦前猪价明显反弹，主因年末二育再次进场叠加散户惜售情绪拉涨猪价。从供需层面 看当前时点的涨价难以持续，往后看1-2个季度，猪价底部震荡的趋势明确，重点关注产能去化进展。 此外，宠物板块经历前期较为充分调整后，建议关注岁末年初的估值切换行情。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 生猪养殖：压栏、二次育肥增加叠加消费回暖，元旦前猪价明显反弹，节后有所回落 据涌益咨询，1月4日全国外三元生猪销售均价12.44元/kg，周环比+0.2%。周初猪价延续上周上行趋 势，主要系前期中大猪出栏减少，肥标价差走扩带动养殖场户压栏惜售，二次育肥情绪增强，叠加年末 低价下消费显著回暖影响所致。元旦节后供给恢复增长，价格有所回落。行业性亏损延续：当前自繁自 养模式母猪50头以下规模出栏肥猪亏损为-10.29元/头;5000-10000头规模出栏利润为28.31元/头。向后展 望，春节前腌腊等消费需求较为旺盛，但当前行业供给充裕的格局仍未发生实质性改善，未来1-2个季 度产业仍将面临供给过剩的基本面现实，该行预计猪价仍将继续筑底震荡;结合 ...

蓝及立 农林牧注 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 12 月 28 日 版》 中文 相关研究 t 券研究报 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 二育进场猪价反弹；宠物新国货大会召开 - 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申万宏源研究微信服务号 ● 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 1.9%。个股涨幅前五名：神农科技 (35.7%)，国投 中鲁 (20.8%)，金粮控股 (19.9%)，华绿生物 (10.2%)，海南橡胶 (9.6%)，跌幅前五名：粤海饲料 (-6.4%)，*ST 傲农（-6.1%）、大湖股份（-4.7%） 乖宝宠物（-4.1%） 祖名股份（-3.9%) ● 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pig prices due to the re-entry of the second batch of fattening pigs and a rise in consumer sentiment as the year-end approaches. However, it notes that this price increase may not be sustainable in the coming quarters due to an oversupply situation [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector and suggests left-side investment opportunities in this area. It also mentions a potential valuation shift in the pet sector as it undergoes adjustments [5][6]. - The report provides specific recommendations for companies to watch, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Tiankang Biological, Noposion, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Pet, and Petty [5][6]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.9%. The top five gainers included Shennong Technology (35.7%), Guotou Zhonglu (20.8%), and Jinliang Holdings (19.9%) [5][6]. Pig Farming - The average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.0%. The report indicates that the current price increase is driven by several factors, including the re-entry of fattening pigs and a decrease in available pig sources [5][6]. - The report forecasts that pig prices will continue to fluctuate at the bottom level, with a focus on the progress of capacity reduction in the industry [5][6]. Pet Sector - The report mentions the seventh Pet New National Goods Conference held in Wuhan, projecting the annual market size of China's pet industry to be between 154.5 billion and 160 billion yuan. It highlights the rapid growth in the pet market and the emergence of new customer segments [5][6]. - Ruipai Pet Hospital has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a positive outlook for the pet medical service sector [5][6]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.37 yuan/chick, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The report notes that the supply of white feather broilers remains abundant, which is expected to be a theme for 2025-2026 [5][6].

近期，我省鸡肉价格企稳后震荡回落。据山东省畜牧总站统计，12月15日-12月21日（本周），我省鸡 肉市场销售均价为17.17元/公斤，同比降低4.08%，环比降低0.06%。 目前，随着气温降低，炸鸡等快餐食品需求向好，肉鸡分割产品补货量增加，鸡肉产品需求回升，但受 库存出货影响，价格稳中略降。据监测，本周我省17个监测县的鸡肉市场交易量同比升高2.06%，环比 回升0.95%。 肉雏鸡价格继续回升。本周，我省肉雏鸡均价为3.27元/羽，同比升高28.74%，环比升高0.62%。下周最 后一批毛鸡补栏进入尾声，养殖户补栏意向较低，需求转淡，预计短期内肉雏鸡价格或微降。1月上旬 孵化场多暂停出苗，仅月初有少量成交，市场无主流成交价格，价格或延续月底成交情况，呈现震荡态 势。 后市，随着库存出清，库容率降低，加之出口需求增强，鸡肉产品，尤其是鸡胸类产品价格有望偏强运 行，由于鸡胸产品出口订单支撑，走货仍较顺畅，预计近期鸡肉产品综合售价稳中微幅上调运行，但产 品涨势仍低于毛鸡价格涨势；预计毛鸡均价或维持在7.50元-7.80元/公斤，呈现稳中偏强走势。我国鸡 胸肉出口市场正经历显著的结构重塑与增长逻辑升级：传统核 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shennong Development has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 17.38%, reflecting strong performance in the poultry industry and significant growth in revenue and net profit for the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shennong Development achieved a revenue of 14.706 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.159 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 202.82% [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 19, the stock price of Shennong Development was 16.18 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 20.114 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a trading volume of 87.3266 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.44% on the same day [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the last appearance on April 8 [1]. Shareholder Information - As of December 10, the number of shareholders for Shennong Development increased to 38,800, a rise of 5.35% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 5.08% to 31,561 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shennong Development has distributed a total of 7.231 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.484 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 46.7367 million shares, an increase of 12.9572 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF and the Southern CSI 500 ETF are also among the top shareholders, with varying changes in their holdings [3].

Group 1: Construction Materials Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes "internal strength" and highlights the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the construction materials industry, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms and potential investment opportunities in the cement sector [2][6][9] - The policy focus has shifted from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts," suggesting a more gradual adjustment in demand-side policies for the upcoming year [2][6] - The cement sector remains the most valuable investment area within the construction materials industry, with expectations for a new round of supply-side reform [2][6] Group 2: Cosmetics Raw Materials Industry - The Chinese cosmetics raw materials market is projected to grow from CNY 1147.80 billion in 2019 to CNY 1603.90 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% [10] - The peptide raw materials market is expected to grow from CNY 11.2 billion in 2019 to CNY 21.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14.1% [10] - Leading companies in the industry include Weiqi Technology and Jiakai Biological, with Weiqi holding a 6.6% market share in the peptide raw materials sector [10][11] Group 3: Transportation Industry - The logistics demand in emerging markets is showing robust growth, with Jitu Express achieving record daily collection volumes in Brazil [15][16] - The international air transport association (IATA) forecasts a stable profit outlook for airlines, with a projected total net profit of USD 41 billion in 2026 [18] - The supply chain bottlenecks continue to restrict the growth of the aviation industry, with a structural mismatch between demand and available aircraft [18] Group 4: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig price is expected to remain weak, with a recent increase to CNY 11.54/kg, but overall industry losses persist [31][32] - The central economic work conference has introduced policies aimed at stabilizing pig prices and enhancing farmers' income, indicating a shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [32] - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" dilemma, with leading companies likely to gain market share as they adapt to changing conditions [33]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 猪价或持续弱势，产能去化进行时 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20251208-20251212） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续弱势，去化逻辑或逐步加强 本周 SW 生猪养殖板块涨 1.11%，猪价表现先弱后强，生猪期货低位反弹（收涨 +2.17%）。降温叠加腌腊需求，本周猪价先弱后强收至 11.27 元/kg，周日涨至 11.54 元/kg（涌益）、全行业亏损，但第三方机构显示去化偏缓（涌益 11 月 yoy-0.14%）， 资本市场担忧产能去化进度、股价短期震荡。当前出栏均重上涨至约 130kg，12 月 出栏计划环比继续增长（涌益样本增幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][42]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing intensified losses, with a significant acceleration in capacity reduction. The report recommends a left-side investment strategy focusing on the pig farming sector [2][36]. - Pig prices are at a bottom and continue to fluctuate, with losses widening. The average loss for self-breeding sows is reported to exceed 120 CNY per head [2][36]. - The pet food sector shows continued industry vitality, with online sales growth of 17% year-on-year for October and November [2][36]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 0.1%, mirroring the decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [2]. - Top gainers included *ST Zhengbang (19.4%), BioShares (17.2%), and Pingtan Development (13.8%) [2][8]. Pig Farming - The report highlights that pig prices are in a bottoming phase, with losses continuing to expand. The average loss for self-breeding sows is approximately 128.3 CNY per head for those with fewer than 50 sows and 146.5 CNY for those with 5,000 to 10,000 sows [2][36]. - The report suggests that the ongoing losses and the seasonal decline in pig prices may catalyze a faster capacity reduction in the industry [2][36]. Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry has shown resilience, with a combined sales figure of 7.02 billion CNY for October and November, reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase [2][36]. - Notable brands such as GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co. reported significant growth in sales, with GuaiBao Pet achieving a 40% increase [2][36]. Chicken Farming - The report notes a slight rebound in prices for broiler chickens, with the average selling price for white feather broiler chicks at 3.33 CNY per chick, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.22% [2][36]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of white chickens remains abundant, which is expected to be a key theme for 2025-2026 [2][36]. Beef Market - The prices for beef and calves have shown a slight increase, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.56 CNY per kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [2][36].

行业景气延续，10-11月宠物食品行业线上GMV同比+17%。由于今年"双十一"大促提前，11月单月数据 参考意义有限，该行将10月-11月数据合并进行统计分析。据久谦咨询，2025年10-11月宠物食品天猫、 京东、抖音平台合计销售额为70.2亿，同比+17%;乖宝宠物：10-11月合计GMV同比+40%，其中麦富 迪、弗列加特分别同比+25%、+74%;中宠股份：10-11月合计GMV同比+76%，其中顽皮、Zeal、领先分 别同比+68%、+23%和+104%;佩蒂股份：10-11月合计GMV同比+21%，其中爵宴、好适嘉分别同比 +25%、-38%。 肉鸡养殖 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局 生猪养殖板块。猪价底部震荡，亏损幅度继续扩大(涌益监测不同规模母猪存栏自繁自养亏损额均超过 120元/头)。不同第三方机构监测样本点11月能繁母猪数据陆续发布，11月产能普遍去化，结合农业农 村部10月数据，行业产能加速去化实质性发生，推荐关注板块左侧投资机会。此外，宠物板块经历前期 较为充分调整后，建议关注年末估值切换的行情。 申万宏源主要观点如下： ...