长源电力：9月完成发电量27.42亿千瓦时 同比降低41.88% 10月9日晚，长源电力（000966）发布公告称，公司9月完成发电量27.42亿千瓦时，同比降低41.88%。 其中火电发电量同比降低47.10%，水电发电量同比增长557.61%，新能源发电量同比降低43.24%。 公司1-9月累计完成发电量273.32亿千瓦时，同比降低8.24%。其中火电累计发电量同比降低9.40%，水 电累计发电量同比降低9.55%，新能源累计发电量同比增长6.21%。 资料显示，长源电力成立于1995年4月，主营业务是电力、热力生产和经营。 所属行业：公用事业–电力–火力发电 环旭电子：9月合并营业收入为59.6亿元 10月9日晚，环旭电子（601231）发布公告称，公司9月合并营业收入为59.6亿元，同比增加0.1%，环比 增加7.23%。公司2025年1月至9月合并营业收入为436.41亿元，同比减少0.83%。公司2025年第三季度 （2025年7月至9月）合并营业收入为164.27亿元，同比减少1.16%，环比增加21.10%。 资料显示，环旭电子成立于2003年1月，主营业务是全球电子制造设计，通过为品牌客户 ...

在及拉 2025 年 10 月 08 日 若研究先 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 农林书馆 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物 (6.0%)、宏辉果蔬 (4.1%)、万 辰集团（3.7%）、生物股份（3.2%）、海南橡胶（3.1%）。投资分析意见：重视生猪养殖"反内卷" 进程，把握优质猪企 价值重估确定性。基本面+政策共同驱动下，生猪养殖行业产能去化节奏有望加快，关注板块左侧布局机会。十一期间行 业供给充裕，猪价跌速加快，肥猪与仔猪养殖均陷入亏损或将加快产能调减。向后展望，在亏损减产与"反内卷"政策的 双重推动之下，产能有望进入加速去化阶段。本轮猪周期步入下行尾声，左侧布局正当时。中期来看，伴随行业高质量发 展的开始，优质产能中长期盈利中枢与盈利稳定性均有望明显提升，业绩与股东回报兑现良好的头部猪企，正迎来一轮确 定性的价值重估。建议关注：牧原股份、德康农牧、温氏股份、诺普信、中宠股份、乖宝宠物、邦基科技、立华股份。 本周重点关注:《从 2025 年中报看猪周期新趋势— 一生猪 ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流入38.34万元，特大单买入985.63万元，占比5.57%，卖出1006.66万元，占 比5.68%；大单买入3101.85万元，占比17.52%，卖出3042.47万元，占比17.18%。 圣农发展今年以来股价涨28.39%，近5个交易日涨5.73%，近20日涨4.21%，近60日涨19.66%。 9月30日，圣农发展盘中上涨2.03%，截至13:50，报18.08元/股，成交1.77亿元，换手率0.81%，总市值 224.77亿元。 今年以来圣农发展已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月8日。 资料显示，福建圣农发展股份有限公司位于福建省光泽县十里铺圣农总部办公大楼，成立日期1999年12 月21日，上市日期2009年10月21日，公司主营业务涉及肉鸡饲养及初加工、鸡肉产品深加工。主营业务 收入构成为：鸡肉52.77%，肉制品41.70%，其他(补充)5.53%。 分红方面，圣农发展A股上市后累计派现68.60亿元。近三年，累计派现11.13亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，圣农发展十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股3377.95 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Company Overview - Lihua Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feather chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with chicken revenue accounting for 75.84%, pig revenue 23.31%, and goose revenue 0.86% [3] - The company is classified under the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, specifically in the livestock sector focusing on chicken farming [3] Stock Performance - As of September 25, Lihua's stock price decreased by 2.03% to 22.25 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 18.629 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Lihua's stock has increased by 17.97%, with a recent decline of 1.90% over the last five trading days, and increases of 15.46% over the last 20 days and 19.62% over the last 60 days [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Lihua reported a revenue of 8.353 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 74.10% to 149 million CNY [3] - The company has distributed a total of 2.063 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.114 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [4] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Lihua had 20,900 shareholders, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous period, with an average of 30,104 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.91% [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, E Fund's ChiNext ETF holds 7.6594 million shares, an increase of 627,700 shares compared to the previous period [4] Market Activity - Lihua has appeared on the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 8 [3] - As of September 25, the net outflow of main funds was 4.4422 million CNY, with significant buying and selling activity recorded [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry has entered a loss-making phase, with policies aimed at reducing internal competition likely to continue, suggesting a focus on cost-efficient leading companies [3][5] - The latest weekly pig price is 13.15 CNY/kg (down 0.37 CNY/kg week-on-week), indicating the industry is in a loss zone, with a potential stabilization of prices in the future [5][15] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a significant transformation, emphasizing the protection of farmers' rights and the activation of corporate innovation, which may lead to a focus on technology and innovative business models [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing capacity control measures, with a recent meeting involving 25 pig enterprises to implement production capacity adjustments [6][15] - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.45 kg (up 0.13 kg week-on-week), while the price of 15 kg piglets is 358 CNY/head (down 36 CNY/head) [5][15] - The report suggests that leading companies with cost advantages and community engagement will benefit from excess profits and valuation premiums [6][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry faces a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce capacity [7][17] - The price of chicken chicks is 3.40 CNY/bird (up 7.9% week-on-week), while the price of broilers is 3.38 CNY/kg (down 1.46% week-on-week) [7][17] - Focus on companies with improving ROE and sustainable growth, particularly high-quality imported breeding stock and integrated enterprises [7][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Hai Da Group due to improved management effectiveness and increased capacity utilization, leading to growth in volume and profit [8][18] - The prices of various fish species have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing significant year-on-year declines [8][18] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is seeing a consolidation of leading brands, with expectations of recovery in the third quarter following a weak second quarter [10][20] - Continued focus on strong domestic brands and companies with good performance in overseas markets [10][20] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, with adjustments in soybean planting area and yield forecasts impacting market expectations [11][21] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations and weather conditions affecting soybean planting [11][21] 6. Market and Price Situation - The agricultural index has decreased by 2.70% compared to the previous week, with the overall market showing mixed performance [22][29] - The report notes the impact of external factors such as African swine fever outbreaks in neighboring countries on market stability [50]

Core Viewpoint - The price of live chickens (ordinary broilers) in the national market has shown a slight increase in August 2025 compared to July 2025, while experiencing a year-on-year decline [1] Price Trends - The price of live chickens in the national market for August 2025 is 21.38 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.14 yuan per kilogram from July 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 0.6% [1] - The month-on-month increase has risen by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Year-on-year, the price has decreased by 2.3%, although the rate of decline has improved by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Shengnong Development has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 19.16% but a recent decline in the last five trading days by 4.39% [2] Company Overview - Shengnong Development, established on December 21, 1999, and listed on October 21, 2009, is primarily engaged in the breeding and processing of meat chickens, with main business revenue composition being 52.77% from chicken, 41.70% from meat products, and 5.53% from other sources [2] - The company is classified under the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, specifically in the poultry farming sector [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shengnong Development achieved an operating income of 8.856 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 910 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 791.93% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.860 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.113 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shengnong Development was 35,700, a decrease of 8.03% from the previous period, with an average of 34,843 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 8.73% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 13.3849 million shares, and Southern CSI 500 ETF, which increased its holdings by 1.278 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" process in pig farming, suggesting that the industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to both fundamental and policy-driven factors. This presents an opportunity for value reassessment of quality pig farming companies [3][4]. - The report notes that after over 16 months of profitability, the pig farming industry has entered a phase of losses again, with a significant drop in pig prices. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 12.71 yuan/kg, down 4.2% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of profits in the breeding industry and the continued demand for pet food, with a notable increase in net profits for tracked companies in the agricultural sector, which reached 20.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index fell by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.4%. The top five gainers included Andeli and Biological Shares, both up by 9.4%, while the biggest losers included *ST Zhongji, down by 18.3% [4][11]. Pig Farming - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, with self-breeding operations losing 24.44 yuan per head. The average price for weaned piglets dropped to 259 yuan per head, a decrease of 32 yuan week-on-week [3][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by 1 million heads over the next six months [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market continues to experience weak pricing, with the average selling price for broiler chicks at 3.10 yuan per chick, down 4.91% week-on-week. The report suggests focusing on leading companies for long-term value [3][4]. - The yellow feather broiler market is seeing a seasonal rebound, with prices for Qingjiao chicken rising significantly since June, indicating potential profitability improvements in the upcoming quarter [3][4]. Pet Food Industry - The report tracks pet food export data, noting a decline in export value to 834 million yuan in August, down 10.4% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year. However, the export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting significant profit growth across various sub-sectors [2][11]. Core Insights - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector achieved a substantial year-on-year profit increase of 208% in the first half of 2025, with total net profit reaching 207.8 billion yuan [2][11]. - The sub-sectors with the highest profit growth included seed industry (+1212%), pig farming (+663%), and agricultural product processing (+60%) [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of profitability in pig farming, driven by improved cost efficiency and increased production volume, despite a slight decline in pig prices [2][17]. - The poultry sector, particularly white feathered chicken, is experiencing pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while yellow feathered chicken prices have significantly dropped [2][17]. - The pet food industry is noted for its continued growth, with domestic brands gaining market share and profitability, despite challenges in export due to increased tariffs [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for H1 2025 was 207.8 billion yuan, marking a 208% increase year-on-year [11]. - The second quarter of 2025 also showed a profit increase of 26% compared to the previous year, with notable growth in agricultural product processing and pig farming [15]. 2. Sub-sector Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 201.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17.9% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring to 159.24 billion yuan, up 866% [2][17]. - Despite a slight decline in pig prices, the sector benefited from increased production and reduced costs, leading to significant profit improvements [2][17]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white feathered chicken sector is stabilizing, with a slight recovery in profitability due to cost improvements, while the yellow feathered chicken sector faces significant price declines [2][17]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector saw a revenue increase of 21.4% in H1 2025, driven by domestic brand growth and improved profitability [2][3]. 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector experienced a revenue increase of 26.44% in H1 2025, with net profit rising by 68.35% [4]. 2.5 Feed - The feed sector reported a revenue increase of 13.3% in H1 2025, with net profit up 29.5% [4]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry faced challenges with a revenue decline of 9.7% in H1 2025, attributed to falling grain prices [4]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of stable, high-quality development, with potential for significant profit stability and valuation reassessment for leading companies [3][5]. - The pet food sector is expected to continue its long-term growth trajectory, supported by increasing pet ownership and spending [3][5].