2025 年 11 月 25 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源 iFinD，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 把握边际改善 投 农林牧渔行业 2026 上半年投资策略 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。SW农林牧渔行业跑赢沪深300指数。2025年1-11月 （2025年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体上涨 16.36%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约3.18个百分点。分季度来看，SW 农林牧渔行业Q1下跌0.87%，Q2上涨6.49%，Q3上涨10.95%，10-11 月（截至11月21日）下跌0.65%。估值方面，2025年1-11月（2025 年1月1日-2025年11月21日），SW农林牧渔行业整体PB（整体法，最 新报告期，剔除负值）由年初的低点2.31倍最高回升至3.06倍。截 至11月21日 ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 23 日 猪价低迷产能去化加快，关注宠食龙头成 长确定性 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 3.4%，沪深 300 下跌 3.8%。个股涨幅前五名：中水渔业（61.0%）、荃银 高科（27.4%）、国联水产（22.5%）、獐子岛（14.7%）、永安林业（13.4%）。投资分析意见：猪价 低迷养殖亏损加剧，关注产能去化加速。肥猪供给压力仍大，猪价旺季不旺养殖亏损或进一 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shennong Development has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.00% and a year-to-date increase of 14.76%, indicating volatility in its market performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shennong Development reported a revenue of 14.706 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.159 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 202.82% [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Shennong Development has distributed a total of 6.860 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.113 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shennong Development increased to 35,900, reflecting an 8.35% rise. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 7.71% to 34,099 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 46.7367 million shares, an increase of 12.9572 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with varying changes in their holdings [3]. Market Activity - The stock has seen a trading volume of 78.5988 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.39%. The total market capitalization stands at 20.089 billion yuan [1]. - Shennong Development has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the last occurrence on April 8 [1]. Business Overview - Shennong Development, established on December 21, 1999, and listed on October 21, 2009, is primarily engaged in the breeding and processing of meat chickens. The revenue composition includes 52.77% from chicken, 41.70% from meat products, and 5.53% from other sources [1]. - The company operates within the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, specifically in the poultry farming industry, and is associated with concepts such as rural revitalization and pre-prepared dishes [1].

农牧渔板块今日（11月19日）盘中猛拉！全市场唯一农牧渔ETF（159275）早盘弱势，午后突然拉升翻 红，截至发稿，场内价格涨0.5%。 成份股方面，水产股大爆发，带动农牧渔产业链亦整体上涨。截至发稿，国联水产20CM涨停，獐子 岛、天马科技、华英农业等多股涨停，好当家、美农生物等亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 壁加 九转 面线 工具 ® 0 | | 农牧渔ETF | | 159275 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.000 | | | | | 159275(农牧渔ETF) 14:44 价 1.005 温康 0.005(0.50%)均价 1.002 服交量 0 IO. | | | | Ories | 1.005 | | +0.005 +0.509 | | 1.004 | | | | | | | | M | 0.35% | SZSE CNY 14:44:18 交易中 净值击数 | | 103 华 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig farming industry, indicating that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026 [3][19] - The pet economy remains a key growth area, highlighting investment opportunities in niche sectors [4] Group 1: Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming segment, is experiencing a downturn, with 2025 expected to see continued losses, leading to a price bottom in the first half of 2026 [5][19] - The chicken farming sector is also under pressure, with expectations of supply-side stabilization and demand recovery in 2026 [20] - The cattle farming sector is projected to face a supply contraction starting in 2026, which may last until 2027 [21] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The pet food industry is anticipated to maintain its growth trajectory, with leading companies increasing their market share despite challenges in export performance [5][4] - The blueberry market in Yunnan is expected to see profit realization from 2024 to 2025, with growth potential continuing into 2026-2027 [5] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is gaining traction as natural production declines, with early movers in this space likely to see performance improvements [5] Group 3: Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment consideration, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, DeKang Agriculture, TianKang Biological, and others in the pet food sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][46]. Core Insights - The Swine price continues to decline, leading to an increase in losses, while the capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. The pressure on fat pig supply remains significant, and the seasonal demand for pigs may not boost prices, potentially undermining industry confidence [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with leading companies achieving significant market share growth. The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of top-tier companies in this sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the stable performance of the white feather broiler chicken market, with slight declines in chick prices but stable chicken meat prices. The overall supply remains abundant, indicating a focus on leading companies for long-term value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included Green Kang Bio (27.6%), ST Jiawo (23.2%), and Pingtan Development (22.2%) [2][3][9]. Swine Farming - The report notes a continued decline in swine prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year. Losses for self-breeding sows are reported at -71.95 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase in losses [2][3][41]. Pet Food - The report emphasizes the strong sales of domestic pet food brands during the "Double Eleven" event, with major brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong leading in sales rankings across various platforms [2][3]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price for white feather broiler chicks is reported at 3.35 yuan per chick, a week-on-week decrease of 2.9%. The average price for white feather broiler meat is stable at 3.45 yuan/kg [2][3]. Beef Cattle - The report indicates a slight decrease in the prices of beef cattle and calves, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.6 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week [2][3].

11月17日，立华股份盘中下跌2.03%，截至09:54，报20.77元/股，成交3816.21万元，换手率0.29%，总 市值173.90亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出489.09万元，特大单买入372.31万元，占比9.76%，卖出358.29万元，占 比9.39%；大单买入401.92万元，占比10.53%，卖出905.03万元，占比23.72%。 立华股份今年以来股价涨10.13%，近5个交易日跌3.93%，近20日跌5.59%，近60日涨3.75%。 截至9月30日，立华股份股东户数1.60万，较上期减少23.50%；人均流通股39351股，较上期增加 30.72%。2025年1月-9月，立华股份实现营业收入134.93亿元，同比增长6.38%；归母净利润2.87亿元， 同比减少75.27%。 分红方面，立华股份A股上市后累计派现20.63亿元。近三年，累计派现11.14亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，立华股份十大流通股东中，国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）位 居第十大流通股东，持股746.03万股，为新进股东。易方达创业板ETF（159915）退出十大流通股东之 列。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed (2.45%) [12]. - Over 90% of individual stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating strong overall market performance [13]. - The industry valuation has rebounded, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio at approximately 2.94 times as of November 13, 2025, which is still relatively low compared to historical levels [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance and controllability of seed technology during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed sources and innovation in the seed industry [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from industry trends and potential recovery in profitability [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [48]. Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.87% from October 31, 2025, to November 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 5.04 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (9.03%), fishery (8.12%), animal health (5.57%), planting (4.57%), breeding (2.94%), and feed industry (2.45%) [12]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.94 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 65.9 percentile since 2006 [17]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs decreased from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.74 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal showed fluctuations, with corn priced at 2260.39 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3072 CNY/ton as of November 13, 2025 [21][23]. - **Profitability**: As of November 14, 2025, self-breeding pig farming reported a loss of 114.81 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets resulted in a loss of 205.64 CNY per head, indicating a decline in profitability compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.49 CNY per chick, slightly down from the previous week, while the average price of white feather broilers increased to 7.12 CNY/kg, with a loss of 0.95 CNY per bird, showing a slight improvement in profitability [28][31]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized accelerating the self-reliance of seed technology and ensuring the autonomy of seed sources during a recent meeting, highlighting the importance of domestic seed industry leaders [35]. Company Important News - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry trends and developments [48][49].