2025年初，DeepSeek凭借技术突破席卷全球。 外界既关注DeepSeek的能力边界，也好奇其运行方式。 尤其是在融资成为科技新兴行业主流路径的当下，DeepSeek始终保持"不融资"的姿态，更让外界惊讶其 管理层的资金实力。 但若把视线往回拉，会发现梁文锋并非空手起步，他身后有一台多年打磨的"现金流制造机" 这一部分长期极为低调，却在今年被重新看见，也让理解DeepSeek的认知方式发生变化。 01 幻方业绩"回归" 近期，幻方量化被行业数度讨论。 作为DeepSeek背后关键人物梁文锋早年创立的量化私募机构，幻方有过很显赫的历史，但也曾突然"静 音"，默默离开私募舞台中央。 这一落一起之间，最直接的主导因素依然是策略表现。 据私募排排网数据，幻方股票多头策略在2025年前十一个月的收益大体维持在50%左右，而中证1000与 中证500指数同期大致在20%出头，幻方超额达到30个百分点。 这是过去几年来，幻方对外募集产品业绩最显赫的一个阶段。此种相对稳健的表现，甚至让人想起幻方 盛年之时的状况。 当年，幻方以量化四大天王领头羊的身份，率先冲破千亿规模，但又很快遭遇业绩和规模的双双缩水。 直至2025年 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that leading private equity firms are actively issuing new products despite market fluctuations, with a strong preference for long equity strategies as new capital continues to flow into the market [1][2] - The private equity issuance market remains vibrant, with a significant increase in the number of registered private securities investment funds, reaching 8,935 in the first three quarters of the year, a 89.38% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The performance of large private equity firms has been impressive, with an average annual return of 28.8% for 62 firms as of September 30, 2023, and a high positive return rate of 98.39% [3] Group 2 - Many large private equity firms are adopting a balanced investment strategy for the fourth quarter, focusing on both offensive and defensive positions while exploring market opportunities [4][5] - Specific sectors of interest include technology, advanced manufacturing, and undervalued cyclical industries, with a focus on leading companies in segments such as media, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [5]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a sluggish market, many private equity firms are increasing their stock positions, indicating a potential bullish sentiment for 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Positioning - Recent data shows that the stock private equity position index has risen to 79.03%, marking an increase of 0.82 percentage points from the previous week, and reaching a near eight-week high [2]. - 56.5% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 32.21% are at moderate levels, and only 0.83% are in cash [2]. - There is a divergence in positions among private equity firms of different sizes, with larger firms (over 20 billion) showing significant increases in their positions, particularly a 4.2 percentage point increase for 20 billion firms and a 2.8 percentage point increase for 100 billion firms [2]. Group 2: Fundraising Activities - The private equity industry has faced challenges in fundraising due to poor performance in 2023, with a significant drop in the number of products registered compared to 2022 [4]. - Despite the challenges, several private equity firms are actively seeking to raise funds at the beginning of the year, focusing on long-only equity strategies [4]. - Notable firms like Xing Shi Investment and Jiu Kun Investment are reportedly opening fundraising channels, indicating a renewed interest in equity markets [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Several prominent private equity managers are optimistic about the market in 2024, citing favorable conditions such as the potential peak and decline of global interest rates [5][6]. - The overall valuation of the CSI 300 index is considered low after three years of adjustments, suggesting a potential for recovery and investment opportunities [5]. - The chairman of Zhongou Ruibo believes that the stock market's prolonged downturn has led to attractive valuations, with several positive factors accumulating for 2024 [6].