万马骁腾辞旧岁，大潮奔涌启华章。值此新春佳节之际，我谨代表光大保德信基金向长期以来信任与托付我们的广大投资者、携手共进的合作伙伴，致以 最诚挚的感谢！祝愿大家龙马精神、万事胜意！ 日本早稻田大学经济学博士，财政部宏观人才库专家、金融人才库专家、财政政策研究专家工作室专家，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国 资本市场学会宏观与产业专委会委员，2023年10月和2025年9月两次参加国务院总理主持召开的经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，就经济工作建言献策。 回望2025，时代浪潮奔涌向前。这一年，中国式现代化迈出坚实步伐，高质量发展绘就壮美画卷；国内生产总值首次跨越140万亿元大关，经济增长质效 同步提升，为发展筑牢坚实根基；新质生产力加速崛起，人工智能、量子科技等前沿领域成果频出。这一年，公募基金行业顺应国家发展大势，在改革中 前行：行业规模突破37万亿元大关，创历史新高；标志性政策法规相继落地，推动公募行业生态体系实现系统性重塑；费率改革向深向实，综合费率稳步 下行，让利于民成效彰显；公募REITs扩容提速，商业不动产试点破冰启航，激活存量资产新动能……这一年，公募基金行业正以更专业、更规范、更开 放的姿态 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Market Outlook for 2026**: The founder of Panjing Investment, Zhuang Tao, predicts a unique bull market in 2026 characterized by significant trading volume and the influx of external capital, with 4.92 million new accounts opened in January 2026 alone [1] - **Low Interest Rate Environment**: A substantial amount of trillions in three-year fixed deposits will mature, leading to ample liquidity in the market [1] - **Market Trends**: Despite market volatility, the overall trend is upward, with a low probability of a bear market [1] Key Insights - **Structural Anomalies**: - Active management funds are experiencing redemptions, while quantitative and fixed-income products are gaining popularity [1] - Excess liquidity has led to a surge in thematic stocks, while heavily held fund stocks have declined, reminiscent of early 2007 market conditions [1] - The regulatory environment remains mild, but market structure shifts may not follow historical patterns [1] AI Industry Opportunities - **Countering the "No Revenue from AI" Argument**: - Strong demand for cloud services (e.g., Azure, AWS) indicates actual revenue generation; capital expenditures are a characteristic of the industry [1] - Investment in AI is viewed as a survival strategy, with companies fearing to fall behind rather than solely calculating returns (e.g., Google and ByteDance's aggressive investments) [1] - **Industry Chain Opportunities**: - Strong overseas demand for AI, with domestic companies like Alibaba and Tencent increasing investments [1] - Supply-demand tension in sectors like storage is leading to performance growth for domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies [1] - Short-term stock price fluctuations do not alter the long-term industry trend; focus should remain on fundamentals [1] Investment Strategy - **Responding to Volatility and Extreme Market Conditions**: - Emphasis on fundamental analysis, requiring deep research (90% or higher understanding) to avoid being swayed by market fluctuations [1] - Balanced allocation between growth and value stocks, with diversified investments across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas markets [1] - Structural opportunities exist in Hong Kong, but careful selection of reasonably valued quality companies is necessary [1] - **Focus on Bottleneck Areas**: - Sectors like storage, due to supply-demand gaps, will be key focus areas throughout the year [1] Other Industry Perspectives - **Precious Metals (e.g., Gold, Copper)**: Supported by weakened dollar credibility and policies from Trump [1] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: Viewed positively, with teams enhancing research and layout [1] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Primarily structural opportunities, with the internet sector requiring further observation [1] Core Conclusion - Zhuang Tao believes that the 2026 bull market should leverage the "AI industry trend and balanced allocation," and through in-depth research and patient positioning, investors can capture certain opportunities in a market with an unfriendly capital structure [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of quantitative private equity funds in 2025, showcasing their ability to leverage algorithms and technology for superior returns in a volatile market [2][4][35] - The average return for all qualifying quantitative products reached 30.91%, significantly outperforming the market, with the top-performing funds achieving returns above 50% [3][4] Group 1: Performance Overview - As of December 2025, there were 1,600 qualifying quantitative products with a total scale of approximately 1350.51 billion [2][3] - The average return for funds managed by managers with over 100 billion was 38.52%, yielding an excess return of 13.59% [3][4] - The performance of funds in different asset size categories varied, with those in the 50-100 billion range achieving an average return of 27.69% [9][10] Group 2: Top Fund Managers - The top ten quantitative fund managers in the 100 billion and above category included notable names such as Ma Zhiyu from Lingjun Investment and Wang Chen from Jiukun Investment, both achieving returns exceeding 50% [4][8] - In the 50-100 billion category, the leading managers were Shi En from Yunqi Quantitative and Huang Hui from Qianshu Investment, with average returns of approximately 27.69% [9][12] - The 20-50 billion category was led by Nie Shouhua and He Jie from Hanrong Investment, achieving an average return of 30.69% [13][17] Group 3: Strategy and Innovation - The article emphasizes the innovative strategies employed by these fund managers, particularly the integration of AI and advanced algorithms in investment decisions [4][8] - Jiukun Investment and Ningbo Huansheng Quantitative have made significant strides in AI-driven investment strategies, launching new models and research initiatives in early 2026 [8][9] - The focus on quantitative strategies has led to a high percentage of positive returns across various fund sizes, with 93.45% of products in the 50-100 billion category reporting positive returns [9][10]

Core Insights - The private equity securities industry is experiencing rapid growth in 2025, with product scale surpassing 7 trillion yuan and a significant increase in product registrations, nearly doubling from 2024, becoming the core engine of industry growth [1][2] - Nearly 90% of private equity securities products achieved positive returns, indicating a strong performance and increasing market recognition, leading to a more stable and sustainable growth trajectory for the industry [1][5] Product Registration and Strategy - A total of 12,645 private equity securities products were registered in 2025, a 99.54% increase from 6,337 in 2024, with stock strategies being the preferred choice, accounting for 65.86% of all registered products [2] - Quantitative products showed remarkable growth, with 5,617 registered, reflecting a 114.31% increase and making up 44.42% of total registrations, up from 41.68% in 2024 [2][3] Performance Metrics - Among the 9,934 private equity securities products with performance records, 8,915 achieved positive returns, resulting in a positive return rate of 89.74% and an average return rate of 25.68% [5] - Combination funds demonstrated strong performance, with 96.19% achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 18.30%, while multi-asset strategies also performed well with a 90.61% positive return rate [5] Industry Trends - The private equity securities industry is characterized by a solid core position of stock strategies, while multi-asset and derivative strategies are rapidly emerging, optimizing the strategic structure of the industry [4] - The rise of quantitative investment is becoming a strategic focus for leading institutions, with future competition expected to concentrate on specialization and refinement in niche areas [4][6]

Core Insights - In 2025, the private securities product registration surged, with a total of 12,645 products registered, marking a 99.54% increase from 6,337 in 2024 [2] - Equity strategies remain the preferred choice for private equity firms, with 8,328 equity strategy products registered, accounting for 65.86% of all registered products, indicating strong investor enthusiasm for equity assets [2] Group 1: Strategy Performance - Multi-asset strategies and futures/derivatives strategies ranked second and third in registration numbers, with 1,806 and 1,274 products respectively, representing 14.28% and 10.08% of the total [4] - Bond strategies and combination funds had 492 and 512 products registered, making up 3.89% and 4.05% respectively, contributing to a diversified strategy landscape [4] Group 2: Quantitative Products - Quantitative products showed remarkable growth, with 5,617 products registered in 2025, a 114.31% increase from 2,621 in 2024, and accounting for 44.42% of total registrations [4][5] - Within quantitative equity strategies, the quantitative long strategy was the most prominent, with 2,746 products registered, representing 48.89% of the total quantitative products [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The private equity product registration exhibited a clear concentration trend, with 29 private equity firms registering at least 50 products, of which 26 were billion-yuan firms, indicating their dominance in the market [7] - Quantitative investment has become a strategic focus for leading firms, with 24 out of 29 firms employing quantitative strategies, highlighting the market's increasing recognition of quantitative approaches [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The private securities industry is expected to continue its steady growth, driven by deepening capital market reforms and ongoing advancements in strategy innovation and risk management [11] - The industry is likely to evolve towards higher quality development, offering investors a more diverse range of asset allocation options as market ecosystems improve [11]

Group 1 - In 2025, the private securities product registration surged, with a total of 12,645 products registered, representing a 99.54% increase from 6,337 in 2024 [1] - Equity strategies remain the preferred choice for private institutions, with 8,328 equity strategy products registered, accounting for 65.86% of all registered products [1] - Multi-asset strategies and futures and derivatives strategies ranked second and third in registration numbers, with 1,806 and 1,274 products respectively, representing 14.28% and 10.08% of the total [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the number of registered quantitative private equity products reached 5,617, a 114.31% increase from 2,621 in 2024, making up 44.42% of the total [2] - Among quantitative products, equity strategy quantitative products dominated with 4,077 registered, representing 72.58% of the total quantitative products [2] - The quantitative long strategy was particularly notable, with 2,746 registrations, accounting for 48.89% of the quantitative product total [2] Group 3 - Multi-asset quantitative strategies, bond quantitative strategies, and combination funds registered 594, 100, and 73 products respectively, forming a multi-dimensional quantitative ecosystem [3] - The registration data indicates a clear concentration among leading private equity firms, with 26 out of 29 firms having over 10 billion in assets under management [3] - Quantitative investment has become the main focus for leading firms, with 24 out of 29 firms employing quantitative strategies [3] Group 4 - The private securities product registration data indicates three major development trends: the solidification of equity strategies, the rapid rise of multi-asset and derivative strategies, and the increasing focus on quantitative investment among leading firms [4] - The steady growth of the private securities industry is attributed to the deepening of capital market reforms and continuous improvements in strategy innovation and risk management [4] - The private securities industry is expected to move towards a higher quality development stage, providing investors with more diverse asset allocation options [4]

Group 1 - In 2025, the private securities product registration surged, with a total of 12,645 products registered, marking a 99.54% increase from 6,337 in 2024 [1] - Stock strategies emerged as the preferred choice for private institutions, with 8,328 stock strategy products registered, accounting for 65.86% of all registered products [1] - Multi-asset strategies and futures & derivatives strategies ranked second and third in registration numbers, with 1,806 and 1,274 products respectively, representing 14.28% and 10.08% of the total [1] Group 2 - Quantitative products showed remarkable performance in 2025, with 5,617 products registered, a 114.31% increase from 2,621 in 2024, and accounting for 44.42% of the total [2] - Among quantitative products, stock strategy quantitative products dominated with 4,077 registered, making up 72.58% of the total quantitative products [2] - Futures and derivatives quantitative strategies accounted for 13.76% of the total, with 773 products registered, and the core segment being quantitative CTA strategies with 726 products [2] Group 3 - The registration of private products in 2025 exhibited a clear concentration among leading firms, with 26 out of 29 firms having registered at least 50 products being billion-yuan private institutions [3] - Mingyuan Investment led the registration with 157 products, followed by Century Frontier, Black Wing Asset, and Kuande Private with 147, 138, and 127 products respectively [3] - The steady growth of the private securities industry is attributed to the deepening of capital market reforms and continuous improvements in strategy innovation and risk management by institutions [3]

- The report discusses the impact of ETF scale disturbances on the A500 index, which has led to an early pricing of post-holiday positive expectations. This has limited the marginal tightening space for quantitative strategy risk exposure, with the recovery of micro-cap stocks expected to occur earlier than usual in January 2026[1][11] - The IM basis dimension is highlighted as a key factor, with the annualized IM basis fluctuating significantly between 18% and 5% by the end of December 2025, eventually converging to around 5%. This basis change is expected to catalyze the recovery of micro-cap stocks as hedging strategies rebuild positions after the holiday[2][12] - The report emphasizes the long-term bull market of micro-cap stocks in the A-share market, driven by two main factors: the relatively low delisting probability in the A-share market compared to the U.S. market, which increases shell value, and the higher proportion of individual investors in the A-share market, who prefer small-cap stocks, providing them with higher liquidity[3][13] - Historical data over the past decade shows that micro-cap stocks have achieved a cumulative return of 552%, significantly outperforming most other investment categories. The report notes that micro-cap stocks tend to perform well in the absence of a clear market mainline, benefiting from liquidity premiums during periods of market volatility[3][13] - The report predicts a post-holiday market rotation, with large-cap stocks leading initially, followed by small-cap stocks. The A500 index's valuation uplift is expected to create upward space for micro-cap stocks, with liquidity spillover effects likely to emerge in mid-to-late January 2026, driving a new round of micro-cap stock rallies[4][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing objective standards to measure the value of quantitative products and their managers, rather than relying solely on short-term performance metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Value Measurement of Quantitative Managers - The value of quantitative managers can be assessed through various dimensions such as development background, management scale, research and development capabilities, and risk control abilities [3][7]. - Key dimensions for evaluating quantitative managers include their ability to generate sustainable research and development, as market conditions and trading strategies continuously evolve [7][14]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The principle of "buy low, sell high" is highlighted, suggesting that investors should be cautious when others are overly confident and aggressive, and conversely, more active when others are fearful [9][12]. - With established value metrics, investors can engage in contrarian investing, particularly when quantitative products underperform in the short term [8][10]. Group 3: Long-term Relationships and Communication - Maintaining frequent and in-depth communication with quantitative managers is crucial for building long-term relationships, especially during periods of underperformance [10][12]. - The company values trust and long-term perspectives over short-term performance metrics, allowing for a more comprehensive evaluation of quantitative managers [12][14]. Group 4: Continuous Improvement and Research - The company commits to continuously improving the dimensions used to evaluate quantitative managers, emphasizing the need for ongoing learning and adaptation to new technologies [14]. - Regular high-intensity research is maintained to track both new and existing quantitative managers, ensuring a thorough understanding of the evolving landscape [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme market conditions in the AI sector and concerns regarding the potential for newly listed stocks to underperform, contrasting this with past worries about high valuations and fundraising practices in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since July 2023, regulatory bodies have addressed issues such as oversupply in the A-share market, excessive fundraising, and violations related to stock reductions, aiming to restore profitability in the A-share market, which has significantly contributed to the current bull market [1] - The market has seen a significant concentration of funds in a few hot stocks, with over 80% of stocks declining while major AI concept stocks exhibit divergence [2] Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional funds have shown a strong preference for AI stocks, with 922 public funds holding shares in Cambrian Technology, amounting to a quarterly change of approximately 33.4 billion yuan, representing 12.86% of circulating shares [3] - From October 8 to December 15, institutional inflows into Cambrian Technology reached approximately 129.7 billion yuan, with other AI stocks like SMIC and Haiguang Information also receiving substantial inflows [3][4] Group 3: Regulatory Impact on Fund Management - New regulations for public funds emphasize long-term performance and investor returns over sales metrics, potentially leading fund managers to concentrate on established stocks with strong performance certainty, thus exacerbating market polarization [4][5] Group 4: Liquidity and Market Behavior - The influx of long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is expected to provide around 500 billion yuan annually to the market starting in 2025, with a significant portion directed towards ETFs [6][7] - The current market liquidity is characterized by a concentration of funds in a narrow range of stocks, leading to a situation where the market appears active but is actually driven by a limited number of assets [7][8] Group 5: Global Market Influences - While institutional investors in A-shares remain optimistic about AI stocks, Wall Street has begun to reduce valuations, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's policies and disappointing earnings reports from major tech companies [9][10] - The global computing power market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates indicating an increase from 1,397 EFLOPS in 2023 to 16 ZFLOPS by 2030, highlighting the ongoing competition in the AI sector [11][12] Group 6: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The narrative surrounding AI and the bull market in A-shares is compelling, but there are concerns about potential liquidity issues that could affect investors not heavily invested in AI stocks [13] - The current trend of capital flowing into a structurally volatile market raises the possibility of an impending structural bear market [13]