● 本报记者 王辉 近期，A股主要股指在年内高位区域持续震荡，前期领涨的科技成长主线热度下降，个股赚钱效应明显 减弱。在这一背景下，量化多头策略业绩呈现显著分化，头部机构凭借全频段阿尔法与多维度策略迭代 展现出更强韧性。面对因子衰减、成本攀升及合规趋严等多重挑战，量化行业正加速向平台化、人工智 能（AI）化及多策略化演进，以适应愈发复杂的市场环境，行业竞争步入精细化比拼的新阶段。 业绩面临考验 11月以来，市场进入股指高位震荡、个股分化格局，量化多头策略面临严峻考验。百亿级量化私募蒙玺 投资相关负责人直言，在此市况下，"量化多头策略承压明显，短期内部分传统因子和风格类信号有效 性出现变化，导致策略超额获取能力减弱"。 上海蝶威私募创始合伙人魏铭三提供的数据显示，在10月市场赚钱效应边际回落时，量化多头产品当月 仍实现了约0.93%的平均回报率和1.5%的超额收益率，优于同期主观多头策略的表现。但某第三方渠道 机构的数据显示，第四季度以来，多数头部及腰部量化机构在超额收益率方面出现明显分化。 这种分化在11月以来的行情中继续演绎。念空科技总经理王丽观察发现，随着中小盘和微盘股有所回 暖，量化多头策略里的指增策略 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that leading private equity firms are actively issuing new products despite market fluctuations, with a strong preference for long equity strategies as new capital continues to flow into the market [1][2] - The private equity issuance market remains vibrant, with a significant increase in the number of registered private securities investment funds, reaching 8,935 in the first three quarters of the year, a 89.38% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The performance of large private equity firms has been impressive, with an average annual return of 28.8% for 62 firms as of September 30, 2023, and a high positive return rate of 98.39% [3] Group 2 - Many large private equity firms are adopting a balanced investment strategy for the fourth quarter, focusing on both offensive and defensive positions while exploring market opportunities [4][5] - Specific sectors of interest include technology, advanced manufacturing, and undervalued cyclical industries, with a focus on leading companies in segments such as media, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite increased market volatility in September, the inflow of incremental funds into the market has not ceased, with the number of billion-level private equity firms increasing to 94 by the end of September, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3][8] - The trend of reallocating resident assets remains unchanged, with a consensus on increasing equity assets, supported by a gradual decline in domestic risk-free interest rates and the global competitiveness of China's advantageous industries [1][10] - The number of billion-level private equity firms has increased by 13 over the past seven months, reversing last year's contraction trend, with quantitative private equity becoming the main force [8][12] Group 2 - As of September 29, the number of billion-level private equity firms has increased by 3 from the end of August, with specific firms like Zhengying Asset and Kaishi Private Equity entering the billion-level tier [3][4] - The statistics show that among billion-level private equity firms, there are 45 quantitative, 41 subjective, and 7 mixed investment mode firms, with one firm not disclosing its investment mode [3][4] - The stock private equity position index reached 78.41% as of September 19, indicating a continuous increase in positions among private equity firms, with over 90% of billion-level stock private equity firms holding positions above 50% [13][14] Group 3 - The article highlights that the recent market fluctuations have not deterred the enthusiasm of individual investors, who continue to prefer purchasing existing products to increase their positions during market dips [11][16] - The issuance of new private equity funds remains active, with many firms still launching new funds exceeding 10 million, despite some larger firms having closed their fundraising [11][12] - The liquidity structure indicates that current fund inflows are primarily from domestic institutions and existing investors, with foreign and individual investors yet to fully engage [16]

Core Viewpoint - Market style rotation is a typical characteristic of A-shares, where no single style can consistently outperform the market. This rotation significantly impacts quantitative long strategies, influencing their excess returns directly [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Style Rotation - Style rotation serves as a double-edged sword for quantitative long strategies, affecting performance and sustainability. When market style aligns with historical preferences of quantitative models (e.g., small-cap style), strategies can capture significant stock selection alpha, leading to outstanding performance [3]. - In the first half of 2023 and the small-cap market in 2024, many quantitative products achieved considerable returns. However, when market styles reverse sharply (e.g., collective pullback of small-cap stocks in early 2024), quantitative strategies face significant challenges, often resulting in noticeable drawdowns [3]. - Quantitative models rely on historical data to identify patterns. If a particular style (like small-cap) remains dominant, models will increase exposure to that style. A sudden style reversal can lead to the short-term failure of factors based on historical data, causing stock selection alpha to vanish or even turn negative [3]. Group 2: Performance Disparity Among Strategies - Style rotation exacerbates performance disparities among different quantitative products. Funds focusing on different tracks (e.g., 300 index enhancement vs. 1000 index enhancement) or employing varying style constraints or risk control capabilities will exhibit significant performance differences during style shifts [3]. - The average excess return of over 200 quantitative long strategy products under billion-yuan private equity was approximately -1.69%, with only 22.67% showing positive excess returns, indicating a high exposure to small-cap and growth styles [7]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market exhibited significant style switching from August to September 2025, driven by macroeconomic changes, capital flows, and policy expectations. The relative performance of broad-based indices reflects the rotation between large-cap and small-cap styles [7]. - The small-cap factor's return volatility has increased, and the average excess drawdown during rapid style transitions typically ranges from 1-4%, with the potential for a higher average excess drawdown of 8-9% in February 2024. However, subsequent recovery trends are generally smooth [11].

Group 1 - The private equity market in China has seen a significant recovery this year, with over 8,000 new private securities investment funds registered, marking an increase of over 80% year-on-year [1][2] - Stock strategies have emerged as the dominant force in the private equity issuance market, accounting for over 60% of new products, with 5,343 new stock strategy private funds registered, representing a growth of 92.68% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The recovery in the private equity market is driven by three main factors: the ongoing structural market trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, improved regulatory frameworks enhancing investor confidence, and strong performance of quantitative strategies attracting investor interest [2] Group 2 - Despite recent fluctuations in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, the influx of new capital remains strong, with high demand for quantitative long strategy products, indicating continued investor interest in equity assets [3] - Investors show low redemption intentions and maintain expectations for ongoing structural market trends, with a growing need for reallocation of household savings towards advantageous industries [3] - The healthcare and technology sectors are particularly favored by private equity firms, with significant research activity in the pharmaceutical and electronic industries, indicating a focus on high-potential companies [4][5][6] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical sector has seen over 1,000 research engagements from private equity firms, with leading companies like Mindray Medical, Anjieshi, and Aibo Medical being the most frequently researched [5] - The electronic sector follows closely with nearly 1,000 research engagements, highlighting companies such as Crystal Optoelectronics, Feikai Materials, and Anji Technology as key focuses [6] - Investment strategies are directed towards emerging growth sectors with sustainable performance, including AI technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as competitive companies benefiting from favorable economic policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The financing balance of the two markets has surpassed 2.3 trillion yuan, marking a historical high since 2015, indicating a significant increase in liquidity and investor risk appetite during the current bull market [2][3]. Group 1: Exposure of Micro-Cap Stocks - There is a noticeable differentiation in the exposure of quantitative long products to micro-cap stocks this year, with micro-cap indices significantly outperforming mid and large-cap stocks [4][5]. - The weighted discount rate of IC/IM stock index futures has remained high, suggesting an increased exposure of quantitative managers to micro-cap stocks [7]. - In the first quarter, the proportion of holdings in stocks below the 2000 index was about 20-40%, which may rise to over 50% in the third quarter [8]. Group 2: Reasons and Risks of Exposure to Micro-Cap Stocks - Historically, small-cap stocks have shown higher average annualized beta returns compared to large-cap stocks, attracting speculative interest from retail investors [9]. - The lower coverage of small micro-cap stocks by large institutional investors leads to higher mispricing probabilities, providing opportunities for quantitative models to identify undervalued targets [9]. - The current market liquidity favors micro-cap stocks, pushing their prices higher, especially during periods of weak economic data [9]. Group 3: Investor Strategies to Mitigate Risks - As long as micro-cap stocks maintain a strong market position, the likelihood of high exposure in quantitative long products remains significant [10]. - New investors may have concerns, but the current bull market is relatively rare, and any adjustments are expected to manifest as fluctuations rather than sharp declines [10]. - Quantitative long strategies differ from simple micro-cap strategies, focusing on identifying strong stocks and increasing exposure based on market conditions [10].

Group 1 - The number of billion-level private equity firms has reached 91 as of September 11, showing an increase of 10 firms since the end of July, with the new addition being Nianjue Private Equity based in Shanghai [1][3] - The growth of billion-level private equity firms contrasts with last year's contraction, indicating a recovery in the private equity issuance market [3][5] - The average return of private equity securities investment funds with performance records has exceeded 20% this year, with stock strategy products averaging over 25% [5][6] Group 2 - The number of new registered private equity securities investment funds has reached 7,907 this year, marking an 82.19% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - Despite recent market fluctuations, there has been no significant redemption from investors, indicating a stable sentiment towards the market [8] - Quantitative managers are continuously optimizing their strategy models to adapt to market changes, enhancing their investment portfolios' resilience [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2025, with private equity securities products achieving an average return of 20.41% year-to-date, and 90.85% of the 10,135 products recorded positive returns [1] - Among stock strategy private equity products, 93.09% of the 6,473 products achieved positive returns, with an average return of 25.38%, driven by structural opportunities in the market [1] - Quantitative long strategies have outperformed subjective long strategies, with 96.24% of the 1,303 quantitative products showing positive returns and an average return of 31.84% [1][2] Group 2 - Subjective long strategies have a positive return rate of 92.68% and an average return of 25.62%, with many relying on in-depth research by fund managers to identify quality stocks [2] - Market-neutral and long-short strategies have lower performance due to their hedging nature, with positive return rates of 88.47% and 91.67%, and average returns of 8.15% and 14.53% respectively [2] - Multi-asset strategies have shown strong performance, with 89.91% of the 1,279 products achieving positive returns and an average return of 15.61% [2] Group 3 - Combination fund strategies have the highest positive return rate among the five strategies, with 95.98% of the 398 products achieving positive returns and an average return of 14.12% [3] - The commodity market has experienced wide fluctuations, negatively impacting futures and derivatives strategies, which have a positive return rate of 77.15% and an average return of 8.55% [3] - Bond strategies have benefited from a loosening monetary policy, with 92.50% of the 773 products achieving positive returns and an average return of 7.89% [3]

Core Insights - In July, the number of newly registered private equity funds and product filings reached a record high for the year, indicating a strong growth trend in the private equity sector [2][4]. Group 1: Registration and Filings - In July, 22 new private equity fund managers were registered, marking the highest monthly figure for the year. This includes 6 private securities investment funds and 16 private equity and venture capital funds [2]. - The total number of registered private fund managers reached 19,700 by the end of July, with 11,785 in private equity and venture capital, 7,722 in private securities investment, and 187 in other private investment funds [2]. - A total of 1,698 new products were filed in July, also a record for the year, with a total filing scale of 107.43 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Product Types and Strategies - The majority of the newly filed products in July were stock strategy products, totaling 887, which accounted for 68.34% of the total filings [5]. - Quantitative funds gained significant attention, with 620 quantitative private securities products filed in July, representing 47.76% of the total filings [5]. - Among the quantitative stock strategy products, 321 were filed under the quantitative long strategy, making up 67.15% of that category [5]. Group 3: Fund Scale and Growth - The total number of existing private funds reached 139,430 by the end of July, with a total scale of 20.68 trillion yuan, showing continuous growth for seven consecutive months [5]. - Among the 676 private securities managers with filed products, the distribution by scale was as follows: 357 managers with 0-500 million yuan, 86 with 500 million-1 billion yuan, and 48 with over 10 billion yuan [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the private equity market is experiencing a significant recovery, with over 90% of large private equity firms achieving positive returns this year, driven by structural market opportunities and active trading [2][3] - As of the end of July, the average return for large private equity firms was reported at 16.6%, with 54 out of 55 firms showing positive returns, indicating a strong performance in the sector [2] - The number of large private equity firms has increased to 90, reflecting the expansion of the industry amid favorable market conditions [1][2] Group 2 - The issuance market for private equity has notably improved, with a total of 1,298 private equity securities investment funds registered in July, marking an 18% increase from the previous month [3] - Large private equity firms dominated the new fund registrations in July, with significant numbers of new funds being launched, particularly in index-enhanced strategies [3] - Investor sentiment has improved, with institutional investors increasing their participation and shifting their preferences towards long-biased strategies, while individual investors are also showing signs of renewed interest [3] Group 3 - Large private equity firms are maintaining aggressive positions and actively adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on structural opportunities in the market [4][5] - The current investment focus includes sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and cyclical stocks, with a high portfolio allocation of over 80% [4] - There is an expectation of profit-taking in popular sectors due to recent gains, particularly during the busy earnings reporting period in August, leading to potential adjustments in investment strategies [5]