Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 20th, Shanghai Aluminum continued its downward trend approaching the 20,000 mark, with the main 2507 contract reaching a minimum of 20,005 and closing at 20,075, down 0.45%. The total index position decreased by 5,569 to 515,961 lots. Spot market transactions in East China and Gongyi were average. Alumina is running strongly in the short - term due to supply concerns, but the medium - term surplus trend remains. For electrolytic aluminum, supply pressure is limited, while demand may decline in the off - season. Enterprises can lock in profits at high prices [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall on the 20th, with the main contract closing down 0.45%. The total index position decreased. Spot market had different performances in different regions, and the spot import loss narrowed [9] - **Alumina Situation**: It is running strongly in the short - term due to the suspension notice of a mining area in Guinea, but the medium - term surplus trend remains, and there are opportunities for high - level hedging [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Situation**: Supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling and insufficient hydropower recovery in Yunnan. Demand may decline in the off - season, and inventory may be affected [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Enterprises can lock in profits at high prices considering the approaching off - season and high smelting profits [9] Group 5: Industry News - **Trade Agreement**: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum and reduce the import tax rate on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In return, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [10] - **Corporate Cooperation**: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global aluminum die - casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. They aim to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum and shift to cleaner energy to reduce the carbon footprint [11] - **Mining License**: Guinea plans to revoke the mining license of UAE's EGA. EGA's export and mining activities have been suspended since October 2024, and the affected mining area has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite [11]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On May 19, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, closing slightly down 0.2% at 20,110. The total open interest of the index decreased by 14,465 to 521,530 lots. The spot import loss remained at around - 1,300 yuan/ton. Alumina prices rose sharply due to concerns about bauxite supply, but the substantial impact is limited. In the short - term, it is considered strong under the impetus of sentiment and funds, while the medium - term surplus trend remains unchanged. Enterprises can wait for high - level hedging opportunities. For electrolytic aluminum, supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling restrictions and insufficient recovery of Yunnan's hydropower. On the demand side, inventory slightly accumulated on Monday, and the approaching off - season may lead to a decline in demand and affect inventory performance. Overall, the relaxed macro - atmosphere and continuous unexpected inventory drawdown support the strong performance of aluminum prices, but the increase in absolute prices has inhibited downstream consumption, and enterprises can still lock in smelting profits at high prices [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Market Performance**: On May 19, Shanghai aluminum reached a high of 20,300 during the session but then declined, closing slightly down 0.2% at 20,110. The total open interest of the index decreased by 14,465 to 521,530 lots, and the spot import loss remained at around - 1,300 yuan/ton [8] - **Alumina Market**: Alumina prices rose sharply, with many far - month contracts closing at the daily limit. The main reason is the suspension notice for a mining area in Guinea, which has raised concerns about bauxite supply. The short - term is strong under sentiment and funds, but the medium - term surplus trend remains unchanged, and enterprises can wait for high - level hedging opportunities [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling restrictions and insufficient recovery of Yunnan's hydropower. On the demand side, inventory slightly accumulated on Monday, and the approaching off - season may lead to a decline in demand and affect inventory performance. Enterprises can lock in smelting profits at high prices [8] Group 5: Industry News - **US - UK Trade Agreement**: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In return, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market. The US still maintains a 10% benchmark tariff on most UK goods [9] - **Hydro - Nemak Cooperation**: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global aluminum die - casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. They have signed a letter of intent to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian refinery and shift to cleaner energy sources to reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro's primary casting aluminum alloy already has a low carbon footprint, and they aim to further reduce it by 25% [10] - **Guinea's Mining License Revocation**: Guinea is planning to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium. Since October 2024, the export and mining activities of its subsidiary in Guinea have been suspended. The mining area covers 690 square kilometers with an estimated bauxite reserve of 400 million tons. This reflects the trend of resource - rich countries strengthening control over minerals [10]

研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 伴随市场对中美贸易紧张氛围好转预期的逐步消化，日内有色板块多震荡运 行，受益于库存去化超预期铝价继续冲高并站上 2 万整数关，主力报收于 20005， 上涨 1.27%，指数总持仓减少 1891 至 547335 手。现货上，绝对价格上涨后升贴 水承压，日内华东贴-20；中原贴-30，华南贴-95。现货进口亏损在-1300 元/吨 左右。氧化铝高位窄幅 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations has improved the macro environment, leading to a general rise in asset prices. On the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is limited, but the demand side may be affected by the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space. It is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy on rebounds. The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations improved the macro environment, and on the 12th, Shanghai aluminum opened higher and moved higher, with a gain of 1.66% to 19,910, approaching the 20,000 mark again. The total open interest of the index decreased by 22,204 to 549,226 lots. After the absolute price of spot aluminum rose, the premium/discount was under pressure. The spot import loss was around -1,300 yuan/ton [8] - **Alumina Situation**: Driven by the upward trend in the sector, alumina continued to rebound, but the increase was relatively limited and narrowed compared with the previous period. Considering the maintenance and production cuts plans of some alumina plants in May and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the reduction in overall operating capacity was not significant, and the oversupply trend was difficult to change. Caution should be exercised when considering the rebound space, and a short-selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Situation**: In May, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. Recent small-scale and轮番 maintenance had little impact on supply. Benefiting from the production capacity ceiling limit, the incremental space was limited, and the overall supply pressure was limited. On the demand side, May is the transition period between peak and off-peak seasons. It is expected that the seasonal decline in traditional off-season demand and the end of the PV rush installation period will have a negative impact. At the beginning of this week, inventories continued to decline, and attention should be paid to the sustainability and the extent of the demand drag [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The increase in smelting profit after the rise in aluminum prices may lead to insufficient long positions from funds. Attention should be paid to the resistance performance at the integer mark. Short hedging can participate at high levels [8] 3.2 Industry News - **US-UK Trade Agreement**: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-made cars per year. In exchange, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market [9][10] - **Hydro and Nemak Cooperation**: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global leading aluminum die-casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. The cooperation aims to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian Alunorte refinery and gradually shift the energy structure to cleaner energy to significantly reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro has supplied primary foundry aluminum alloy (PFA) to Nemak, with a carbon footprint of less than 4.0 kg of carbon dioxide per kg of aluminum, only 25% of the global average. According to the signed letter of intent, the carbon footprint will be further reduced by 25% [10] - **Guinea to Revoke EGA's Mining License**: According to Reuters on May 7, 2025, Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. EGA's exports and mining activities have been suspended by the government since October 2024. The mine covers an area of 690 square kilometers and has an estimated reserve of about 400 million tons of bauxite. This move reflects the increasing trend of resource countries in the region to strengthen control over minerals [10]