Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is focusing on revenue generation over user traffic, as evidenced by its financial performance in Q3, which shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Tencent Music's revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 32.6% to 2.405 billion yuan [1]. - Online music revenue grew by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Subscription revenue from online music increased by 17.2% to 4.5 billion yuan, with the number of paying users growing by 5.6% to 126 million [1][2]. User Engagement and Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the monthly active users (MAU) for online music declined by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1]. - The growth rate of paying users has slowed, with a 6.3% increase noted in Q2 [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music is actively developing non-subscription revenue streams, which grew over 50% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan in Q3 [3]. - The company has seen significant growth in live performances, hosting 14 sold-out shows for G-DRAGON across six cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [3]. - Plans to expand the live performance business and introduce more headliner events are in place, aiming to enhance user engagement and drive SVIP subscription growth [3]. Market Reaction - On November 14, Tencent Music's stock closed at 75.6 HKD, reflecting a decline of 10.69% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) [5] Core Insights - Tencent Music's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 8.46 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 20.6%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 8.23 billion RMB, driven by better-than-expected growth in non-subscription revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 2.405 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 32.6% [1] - The online music revenue was 6.97 billion RMB, up 27.2% year-over-year, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, while social entertainment services and other revenues declined by 2.7% [1] Revenue Structure Summary - Subscription revenue reached 4.50 billion RMB, growing 17.2% year-over-year, with a music MAU of 551 million, a decrease of 4.3% year-over-year [2] - The number of paid subscribers increased by 5.6% year-over-year to 126 million, with a net addition of 1.3 million users from the previous quarter [2] - Non-subscription revenue was 2.47 billion RMB, showing over 50% year-over-year growth, with strong performance in advertising and live events [2] Expense Summary - Total expenses for Q3 2025 were 1.31 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.6%, with sales and marketing expenses rising by 18.2% due to increased content promotion and channel spending [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly revised down to 9.70 billion RMB, 10.98 billion RMB, and 12.51 billion RMB, respectively [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 32.78 billion RMB, 37.30 billion RMB, and 41.92 billion RMB, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.8%, and 12.4% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue of 8.44 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate, driven by better-than-expected growth in non-subscription business revenue [4] Revenue Structure - Online music revenue reached 6.85 billion RMB, growing by 26.4% year-on-year, accounting for 81% of total revenue, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Social entertainment services and other revenues declined by 8.5% year-on-year due to adjustments in certain live interaction features and stricter compliance measures [5] Online Music Revenue - Subscription revenue was 4.38 billion RMB, up 17.1% year-on-year, with music MAU at 553 million, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, and the number of paying subscribers reached 124 million, a 6.3% increase year-on-year [6] - Non-subscription revenue was 2.47 billion RMB, showing approximately 47% year-on-year growth, highlighting the company's strong artist resource integration capabilities [6] - Advertising revenue grew by 36% year-on-year, driven by increased ad placements and enhanced user engagement, with the 618 shopping festival contributing to higher click-through and conversion rates [6] Concerts and Merchandise - The company successfully hosted a major concert for G-Dragon in Macau, attracting over 36,000 attendees, and organized a series of stadium concerts for other artists [6] - The company is advancing artist-related products, including merchandise and physical albums [6] Cost Structure - Total expenses for Q2 2025 were 1.15 billion RMB, remaining relatively stable year-on-year, with management expenses flat and marketing expenses increasing by 3% to 216 million RMB [7] - The gross margin is expected to decline in Q3 2025 due to the increased share of non-subscription business, but the outlook for the full year remains positive [7]