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【亚马逊(AMZN.O)】亚马逊25Q3 AWS加速增长,产能限制缓解,AI电商带来营收增量——2025三季报业绩点评(付天姿)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-02 00:05
Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded revenue expectations but provided slightly lower guidance for operating profit in Q4 2025 [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Summary - Q3 2025 net sales reached $180.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.32% [5] - Operating profit was $17.42 billion, which was 11.7% below consensus expectations, primarily due to one-time expenses; operating margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 9.7% [5] - Net profit stood at $21.18 billion, with an EPS of $1.95, exceeding consensus estimates by 25.3% [5] - Q4 2025 net sales guidance is set between $206 billion and $213 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.7% to 13.4%, while operating profit guidance is between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1% to 22.6% [5] AWS Performance - AWS revenue accelerated to $33 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 20.2% year-over-year growth compared to 17.5% in Q2 2025; AWS operating margin was 34.6%, up 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but down 3.4 percentage points year-over-year [6] - Demand for the self-developed chip Trainium2 is high, with revenue growth of 150% quarter-over-quarter, and future services are expected to expand to small and medium-sized clients [6] E-commerce Division Insights - In the e-commerce segment, North America reported an operating profit of $4.79 billion with a margin of 3.3%, while international operations generated $1.2 billion with a margin of 2.9%; both regions experienced declines in operating margins due to one-time legal settlements and job cut expenses [7] - The AI e-commerce assistant Rufus has reached 250 million annual active users, with a 140% year-over-year increase in monthly users, potentially leading to over $10 billion in annual sales [7] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - Amazon's capital expenditure for the trailing twelve months (TTM) was $115.9 billion, a 77.1% increase year-over-year, with Q3 2025 cash capital expenditure at $34.2 billion [9] - For 2025, cash capital expenditure is projected to reach $125 billion, a 60% increase, with expectations of continued growth into 2026 and a doubling of overall capacity by the end of 2027; current capacity constraints are primarily related to power supply [9]
光大证券:亚马逊(AMZN.US)第三季度AWS加速增长 AI电商带来营收增量
智通财经网· 2025-11-01 10:13
Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations, leading to a 13.16% increase in stock price post-announcement, driven by AWS revenue growth and improvements in advertising and AI shopping assistant performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net sales reached $180.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $17.42 billion, which was 11.7% below consensus expectations due to one-time expenses, resulting in an operating margin of 9.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $21.18 billion, with an EPS of $1.95, exceeding consensus estimates by 25.3% [2] - Q4 2025 net sales guidance is set between $206 billion and $213 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.7% to 13.4%, while operating income guidance is between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1% to 22.6% [2]. AWS Performance - AWS revenue for Q3 2025 was $33 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 20.2%, up from 17.5% in Q2 2025 [3] - AWS operating margin was 34.6%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter but a 3.4 percentage point decrease year-over-year [3] - Demand for the in-house chip Trainium2 is high, with revenue growth of 150% quarter-over-quarter, and future services are expected to expand to small and medium-sized clients [3]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity - Capital expenditures for Q3 2025 totaled $115.9 billion, a 77.1% increase year-over-year, with cash capital expenditures at $34.2 billion [4] - Full-year cash capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to reach $125 billion, a 60% increase, with expectations for continued growth into 2026 and a doubling of overall capacity by the end of 2027 [4] - Current capacity constraints are primarily related to power supply, with potential future shifts to chip supply issues [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to $701 billion, $777 billion, and $861 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.0%, 1.4%, and 0.5% compared to previous estimates [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have also been increased to $67 billion, $83.1 billion, and $101.7 billion, with respective increases of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.7% [4] - Current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 35x, 28x, and 23x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].