亚马逊（AMZN） 更新报告 买入 2025 年 12 月 4 日 唐伊莲 852-25321539 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 李倩 852-25321539 chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海证券有限公司 2025 年 12 月 图表 1：主营收入（按业务类型） 图表 2：主营收入占比（按类型） 图表 3：主营收入占比（按地区） 主要数据 | 行业 | 电商/云计算 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股价 | 233.00 美元 | | | 目标价 | 303.50 美元 | | | | （+30%） | | | 股票代码 | AMZN US | | | 总股数 | 107 亿股 | | | 市值 | 2.5 万亿美元 | | | 52 周高/低 | 259/161 美元 | | | 每股账面值 | 34.59 美元 | | | 主要股东 | Jeff Bezos | 8.25% | | | Vanguard | 7.95% | | | Blackrock | 6.75% | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价 ...

新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 总第 4917 期 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 研究观点 【公司评论】 亚马逊（AMZN，买入）：AI 驱动云计算和电商业务双引擎 Meta Platforms（META，买入）：持续优化 AI 算法推动增长飞轮，资本开支增 速将显著提升 寒武纪-U(688256，买入）：推理应用加速落地，算力缺口亟待缓解 速腾聚创（2498，买入）:ADAS 业务收入承压，机器人业务需求强劲 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | | 目标价(港元） | | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Amazon reported revenues of $180.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.32%. Operating income remained flat at $17.4 billion compared to the same period last year, but was below Bloomberg's expectations by 11.66%. Excluding special expenses, operating income would have been $21.7 billion. GAAP net profit reached $21.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 25.70% [4][5] - AWS revenue grew by 20% year-over-year to $33 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 17.9% growth. The operating profit for AWS was $11.4 billion, with an operating margin of 34.6% [5][6] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenues to be between $206 billion and $213 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 10% to 13% [7] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Overall, Amazon's Q3 2025 revenue was $180.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 13%. Operating income was $17.4 billion, flat compared to last year, but below expectations. GAAP net profit was $21.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year [4][5] - Online store revenue was $67.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Third-party retail revenue was $42.5 billion, up 12%. Subscription revenue was $12.6 billion, up 11%. Advertising revenue was $17.7 billion, up 24% [5][6] AWS Performance - AWS revenue grew by 20.2% year-over-year to $33 billion, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $132 billion. The operating profit for AWS was $11.4 billion, with a margin of 34.6% [5][6] - AWS backlog increased to $200 billion by the end of Q3, with new orders in October exceeding the total transactions of Q3 [5][6] Capital Expenditure and AI Demand - Amazon anticipates a cash capital expenditure of approximately $125 billion for 2025, with further increases expected in 2026 to support AWS's AI and core service demands [5][6] - The demand for AI is strong, with Amazon's custom AI chip Trainium2 fully booked, contributing to a multi-billion dollar business [5][6] Retail and Advertising Business - The North America segment's operating profit was $4.8 billion, with a margin of 4.5%. Excluding special expenses, the operating profit would have been $7.3 billion, with a margin of 6.9% [5][6] - Advertising revenue accelerated to $17.7 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, marking three consecutive quarters of growth [5][6] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, Amazon expects revenues of $206 billion to $213 billion, with an operating income forecast of $21 billion to $26 billion, compared to $21.2 billion in the same quarter last year [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $715.5 billion, $796.1 billion, and $884.4 billion, with net profits expected to be $78.3 billion, $85.9 billion, and $104.4 billion respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded expectations, leading to a 13.16% increase in stock price post-announcement, driven by AWS revenue growth and improvements in advertising and AI shopping assistant performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net sales reached $180.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $17.42 billion, which was 11.7% below consensus expectations due to one-time expenses, resulting in an operating margin of 9.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $21.18 billion, with an EPS of $1.95, exceeding consensus estimates by 25.3% [2] - Q4 2025 net sales guidance is set between $206 billion and $213 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.7% to 13.4%, while operating income guidance is between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1% to 22.6% [2]. AWS Performance - AWS revenue for Q3 2025 was $33 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 20.2%, up from 17.5% in Q2 2025 [3] - AWS operating margin was 34.6%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase quarter-over-quarter but a 3.4 percentage point decrease year-over-year [3] - Demand for the in-house chip Trainium2 is high, with revenue growth of 150% quarter-over-quarter, and future services are expected to expand to small and medium-sized clients [3]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity - Capital expenditures for Q3 2025 totaled $115.9 billion, a 77.1% increase year-over-year, with cash capital expenditures at $34.2 billion [4] - Full-year cash capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to reach $125 billion, a 60% increase, with expectations for continued growth into 2026 and a doubling of overall capacity by the end of 2027 [4] - Current capacity constraints are primarily related to power supply, with potential future shifts to chip supply issues [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to $701 billion, $777 billion, and $861 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.0%, 1.4%, and 0.5% compared to previous estimates [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have also been increased to $67 billion, $83.1 billion, and $101.7 billion, with respective increases of 1.3%, 1.1%, and 0.7% [4] - Current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 35x, 28x, and 23x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Group 1 - Nvidia has announced a significant AI collaboration plan with the South Korean government and companies, involving the deployment of over 260,000 Nvidia GPUs for physical AI and agentic AI [1] - Intel is in preliminary talks to acquire AI chip startup SambaNova, with any deal potentially valuing the company below its $5 billion valuation from a 2021 funding round [2] - CoreWeave has announced the acquisition of AI development platform Marimo to unify the workflow for generative AI developers [3] Group 2 - Apple is significantly increasing its investment in AI, with expected operating expenses for the next quarter projected between $18.1 billion and $18.5 billion [4] - Amazon's AI shopping assistant Rufus is expected to generate an additional $10 billion in annual sales [5] - A new open-source embodied intelligence robot project is set to launch in the first quarter of 2026, including hardware, software algorithms, and developer courses [6] - Pony.ai and Xihu Group have launched the first pilot of their seventh-generation L4 autonomous driving vehicles (Robotaxi) in Shenzhen, with plans to expand the operational range [7]

Group 1: Robotaxi Innovation and AI Investments - Pony.ai and Xihu Group launched the first batch of Robotaxi innovation application trials in Shenzhen, marking the city's first intelligent connected vehicle pilot project [4] - Pony.ai's operational range currently covers key areas such as Nanshan, Baoan, and Qianhai, with plans for future expansion [4] - Apple is significantly increasing its investment in artificial intelligence, with projected operating expenses between $18.1 billion and $18.5 billion for the next quarter [8] Group 2: AI Collaborations and Acquisitions - Intel is in preliminary talks to acquire AI chip startup SambaNova, with potential valuation below the $5 billion from its 2021 funding round [6] - Nvidia announced a major AI collaboration plan with South Korean companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Group, to accelerate AI development across key industries [5] - CoreWeave announced the acquisition of AI development platform Marimo to streamline workflows for generative AI developers [7] Group 3: AI Market Potential - Amazon's AI shopping assistant Rufus is expected to generate an additional $10 billion in annual sales [9] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released a report on large model integrated machine applications, analyzing technology evolution and industry trends [3]