进入2026年，全球半导体市场最先感受到的寒意来自存储领域。根据多家市场研究机构的报告，存储芯片价格的上涨已近乎"失控"。 根据Counterpoint Research与TrendForce的数据，继2025年第四季度价格暴涨50%之后，DRAM与NAND Flash芯片的价格预计在2026年第一季度将继续上扬 40%至50% 。 这一极端的价格压力迅速从上游传导至终端。以消费市场为例，部分主流DDR5内存条的价格自2025年下半年以来涨幅已超过三倍。 01 算力税第二波，CPU涨价 长期以来被视为成熟市场的CPU，在2025年下半年开始出现异动，并在2026年初彻底爆发。 对这个现象深度溯源，其实是AI基础设施，特别是大模型训练与推理对高带宽内存（HBM）和高性能存储的"虹吸效应"所致。 资本市场的反应最为敏锐。截至2026年1月21日，芯片巨头英特尔（Intel）股价触及54.25美元，创下自2022年1月以来的新高，年初至今累计涨幅高达 44.74% 。它的竞争对手AMD股价同样录得七连涨。 但存储上扬只是序章，涨价轮盘上新近转来的，是CPU。 在中国市场，国产CPU的代表龙芯中科和海光信息股价分别在 ...

Core Insights - Intel's Q3 2025 revenue reached $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance and showing a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.23, significantly above analyst expectations [1][18] - The company faces capacity constraints, particularly in mature process nodes like Intel 10 and Intel 7, which are limiting its ability to meet demand in data center and client products, a situation expected to persist until 2026 [1][3][5] - To address challenges and seize AI opportunities, Intel has strengthened its balance sheet through various strategic actions, including $5.7 billion in government funding and investments from SoftBank and Nvidia, providing approximately $20 billion in cash [1][20][8] Financial Performance - The non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 40%, exceeding guidance by 4 percentage points, driven by higher revenue and a favorable product mix [7][19] - Q3 operating cash flow was $2.5 billion, with capital expenditures of $3 billion, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of $900 million [19] - Intel's cash and short-term investments totaled $30.9 billion at the end of Q3, bolstered by strategic partnerships and asset sales [20][8] Capacity Constraints and Strategies - CFO Dave Zinsner acknowledged that capacity limitations, especially in Intel 10 and Intel 7 nodes, impacted Q3 performance, prompting the company to guide demand towards available products [2][5] - Intel is prioritizing wafer capacity for server products and accelerating the transition to more advanced nodes like Intel 18A, with positive progress reported [3][6] - The company plans to maintain a disciplined capital expenditure strategy, with a total investment of approximately $18 billion in 2025, focusing on customer commitments before expanding capacity [5][19] AI and Strategic Collaborations - Intel's growth is significantly driven by the acceleration of AI infrastructure, with expectations to ship around 100 million AI PCs by year-end [4][18] - The strategic partnership with Nvidia aims to combine Intel's CPU capabilities with Nvidia's AI acceleration, creating new product categories for cloud and enterprise markets [4][11][47] - Intel has established a Central Engineering group to unify engineering functions and expand its ASIC and design services for external customers, enhancing its x86 IP influence [4][12] Market Outlook - Intel anticipates that the tight capacity situation will continue until the end of FY 2026, with a focus on managing the supply chain effectively [3][5] - The company expects the total addressable market (TAM) for CPUs to grow through 2026, driven by AI infrastructure expansion and increased demand for server CPUs [18][22] - Intel's product divisions, including Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI), reported revenue growth, with CCG revenue at $8.5 billion and DCAI at $4.1 billion for Q3 [21][22]