消费策略&组合配置：Q3 业绩前瞻与全年展望 20251012 摘要 市场避险情绪虽现，但风险资产下跌幅度及 VIX 指数均未达极端水平， 反映市场应对经验增强，对进一步谈判和关税调整仍存期待。 消费板块进入相对顺风期，内部结构性变化明显。外需型消费受美联储 政策及贸易摩擦影响，景气度青黄不接；内需型消费则受益于政策推动 预期及价格水平回暖。 2025 年第四季度，内需消费有望迎来风格与政策驱动下的配置机会， 新消费成长标的和转型红利标的均可能表现突出，双十一期间业绩观察 至关重要。 性价比餐饮受益于成本下降和扩张周期，单店盈利改善，开店速度有望 超预期增长，当前估值合理，是配置良机。 AI 应用领域，壹网壹创通过困境反转和 SaaS 化转型实现增长，吉宏股 份通过 AI 选品提升效率，非美地区市场表现良好，有望提升商业估值。 白酒市场双节动销整体下滑，但宴席端表现较好，大众宴席价位产品占 优。消费者对价格敏感度降低，价格回落激发购买欲望。动销拐点逐渐 显现，可适当考虑左侧布局。 家电行业整体稳健，清洁能源板块亮眼。石头科技作为清洁赛道全球龙 头，积极拓展出海业务，有望扩张成为平台型公司。 Q&A 如何看待当 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry is experiencing a downturn, with the overall performance in the first half of 2025 showing a slight decline in revenue and profit. The total revenue for the Baijiu sector in Q2 2025 was approximately 880 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 312 billion yuan, down 8% [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: In the first half of 2025, the Baijiu sector achieved revenue of about 2.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a minor decline of around 1%. The second quarter saw a more significant drop in revenue and profit compared to the first quarter [3][5]. - **Segment Performance**: High-end Baijiu saw a slight revenue increase of 3% in Q2 2025, while mid-range Baijiu revenue fell by 5%, and regional Baijiu experienced a substantial decline of 30%. The net profit for high-end Baijiu grew slightly by 1%, while regional Baijiu's profit dropped by 41% [4][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The decline in Q2 was primarily due to reduced demand from institutional consumption and a lack of confidence among distributors, leading to forced inventory clearance by manufacturers. Regional brands were particularly affected due to prior inventory accumulation [6][7]. - **Brand Strategies**: Moutai is expanding its channels and introducing new product specifications while implementing price reductions to capture market share. Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are focusing on maintaining channel profits and controlling inventory while introducing tactical products for lower price segments [7][8]. - **Inventory Management**: Some brands, such as Yanghe and Jinshiyuan, are actively reducing inventory to alleviate channel pressure, emphasizing channel health and stability in response to market changes [7][8]. - **State-Owned Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises face slower inventory clearance due to heavier tax burdens. Moutai continues to grow, while Wuliangye exceeded expectations, and Luzhou Laojiao strictly controlled inventory [8][9]. Additional Insights - **Stock Performance**: The Baijiu sector's stock prices fell by approximately 8-9% in the first half of 2025, underperforming the Wind All A Index by about 15 percentage points. The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times, nearing a ten-year low, indicating market pessimism regarding future performance [5][10]. - **Market Adjustment**: State-owned enterprises tend to experience a more gradual decline and adjustment during market changes compared to non-state-owned enterprises, which are quicker to adapt and innovate [11]. - **Current Cycle Position**: The Baijiu sector is currently at a low point in terms of stock prices, with similarities to previous downturns. The expected recovery in revenue may take several quarters, with a potential turnaround by Q2 2026 [12][13]. - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for Q3 suggests continued pressure on most Baijiu companies, but a potential recovery compared to Q2. The fundamental recovery is anticipated to become more evident starting in Q2 2026 [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Long-term recommendations include high-quality leading companies such as Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu. Short-term recommendations focus on companies with marginal change potential, including Hong Kong-listed Zhenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu [15].