摘要 三季度白酒行业需求同比下降 20-30%，但环比二季度显著改善，主要 受益于商务宴请和中秋暑假旺季的消费场景恢复。 商务需求受宏观环境和酒店禁令影响下降严重，而 100-300 元价位的大 众消费白酒表现相对稳健，行业整体处于刚性需求压缩状态。 三季度多家白酒企业首次明确不要求下游渠道完成回款，如古井贡、金 徽等，这可能导致报表表现低于实际需求，是产业周期底部特征。 茅台凭借领导地位和经销商资金自主权，其酱香型产品 1,935 及飞天茅 台替代部分竞品需求，市场表现稳健。 汾酒在产品结构布局及香型优势方面获得认可，业绩相对稳健；金徽通 过省内市场份额提升及产品升级，在低谷期业绩保持稳定。 舍得、珍珠及洋河等品牌调整较早，目前进入恢复状态，预计未来有望 实现正增长。 预计 2026 年春节白酒市场需求较好，二季度报表压力将显著减小，行 业整体表现优于 2025 年，建议加大对白酒板块的配置力度。 Q&A 糖酒会反馈：至暗已过，底部布局，静待花开 20251019 白酒企业供给层面有哪些变化？ 今年三季度许多白酒企业首次明确不要求下游渠道完成一定比例的回款，这是 过去几年非常少见的情况。例如古井贡、金徽等企 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The Baijiu industry is experiencing a downturn, with the overall performance in the first half of 2025 showing a slight decline in revenue and profit. The total revenue for the Baijiu sector in Q2 2025 was approximately 880 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 312 billion yuan, down 8% [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: In the first half of 2025, the Baijiu sector achieved revenue of about 2.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a minor decline of around 1%. The second quarter saw a more significant drop in revenue and profit compared to the first quarter [3][5]. - **Segment Performance**: High-end Baijiu saw a slight revenue increase of 3% in Q2 2025, while mid-range Baijiu revenue fell by 5%, and regional Baijiu experienced a substantial decline of 30%. The net profit for high-end Baijiu grew slightly by 1%, while regional Baijiu's profit dropped by 41% [4][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The decline in Q2 was primarily due to reduced demand from institutional consumption and a lack of confidence among distributors, leading to forced inventory clearance by manufacturers. Regional brands were particularly affected due to prior inventory accumulation [6][7]. - **Brand Strategies**: Moutai is expanding its channels and introducing new product specifications while implementing price reductions to capture market share. Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are focusing on maintaining channel profits and controlling inventory while introducing tactical products for lower price segments [7][8]. - **Inventory Management**: Some brands, such as Yanghe and Jinshiyuan, are actively reducing inventory to alleviate channel pressure, emphasizing channel health and stability in response to market changes [7][8]. - **State-Owned Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises face slower inventory clearance due to heavier tax burdens. Moutai continues to grow, while Wuliangye exceeded expectations, and Luzhou Laojiao strictly controlled inventory [8][9]. Additional Insights - **Stock Performance**: The Baijiu sector's stock prices fell by approximately 8-9% in the first half of 2025, underperforming the Wind All A Index by about 15 percentage points. The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times, nearing a ten-year low, indicating market pessimism regarding future performance [5][10]. - **Market Adjustment**: State-owned enterprises tend to experience a more gradual decline and adjustment during market changes compared to non-state-owned enterprises, which are quicker to adapt and innovate [11]. - **Current Cycle Position**: The Baijiu sector is currently at a low point in terms of stock prices, with similarities to previous downturns. The expected recovery in revenue may take several quarters, with a potential turnaround by Q2 2026 [12][13]. - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for Q3 suggests continued pressure on most Baijiu companies, but a potential recovery compared to Q2. The fundamental recovery is anticipated to become more evident starting in Q2 2026 [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Long-term recommendations include high-quality leading companies such as Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu. Short-term recommendations focus on companies with marginal change potential, including Hong Kong-listed Zhenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu [15].