1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2700 - 2760. Supported by good demand and technical buying, with low rapeseed meal oil - mill operation and low inventory, the spot demand has entered a short - term peak season. Although the import of rapeseed has increased, the oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure. The short - term impact of the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China is positive but limited. The price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff situation [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509: 2700 - 2760 range oscillation. Fundamental aspects are neutral; the basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, which is bullish; the price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards, which is bullish; the main short positions have increased with capital inflow, which is bearish. In the short term, the price is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, the global geopolitical conflict may increase, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12][13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From July 25 to August 5, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was relatively small, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices also fluctuated, with the spot price showing a narrowing high - discount situation [14][16]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week and down 44.12% year - on - year. The import of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained low. The oil - mill rapeseed crushing volume increased slightly [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [25][26]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and there has been capital inflow [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term outlook for rapeseed meal is range - bound fluctuations. The price is affected by factors such as the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes in China. It is expected to return to the range of 2700 - 2760 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, the peak season of spot demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall situation is neutral. In the short - term, due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation with the influence of soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are affected by factors like soybean meal trends, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, and tariff policies. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the major short positions have decreased, and the price is expected to return to range oscillation [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply shortage expectation in the spot market has improved. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, and the geopolitical conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - **Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From July 24 to August 4, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated, with the 2509 contract showing weak oscillation [14]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal fluctuated. The basis of rapeseed meal was at a discount, and the high - level discount has narrowed. The warehouse receipts increased by 1200 on July 31 and remained stable thereafter. The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 were provided, showing changes in inventory and consumption ratios [16][18][26][27]. 5. Position Data - The major short positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term view is a range - bound oscillation. The strategy is based on the analysis of fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and major positions [9].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 ✸菜粕观点和策略 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差-79，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2600 - 2660. The short - term trend is slightly bullish due to low inventory and tariff policies, but the impact of tariff policies may be limited. In the short term, it is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products, and the price will return to range - bound oscillations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2509 oscillates in the range of 2600 - 2660. The fundamentals show that the opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills is low, and the inventory is low, which supports the market. The spot demand is in the short - term peak season. The increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed does not pose short - term pressure on the oil mill inventory. The short - term trend is slightly bullish. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU output and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offsets the decrease in Ukrainian output to some extent, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mill rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased since March; the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From June 12th to June 23rd, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2953 - 2999 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 9.73 - 93.47 tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 0 - 0.33 tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal ranged from 366 - 394 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price data**: From June 12th to June 23rd, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509) ranged from 2657 - 2694 yuan/ton, the price of the far - month contract 2601 ranged from 2363 - 2428 yuan/ton, and the spot price (Fujian) ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From June 10th to June 23rd, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 26649 to 25674 [16]. - **Supply and demand balance sheet**: The domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2014 - 2023, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio. The domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet shows data from 2014 - 2023, including initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24][25]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 oscillates in the range of 2600 - 2660. Analyzed from multiple aspects: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; the inventory is bullish; the market trend is bullish; the main position is bullish; in the short term, it is affected by factors such as low inventory of imported rapeseed and tariff policies, and the price will return to range - bound oscillations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2560 - 2620. It was affected by factors such as low rapeseed meal inventory, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and short - term prices will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound trend. The market is affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, inventory, and policy [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canadian rapeseed annual production has decreased slightly, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still potential for rising geopolitical conflicts to support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish factors**: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: From May 19 - 28, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 - 3029 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2420 - 2540 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian increased from 2420 yuan/ton on May 19 to 2540 yuan/ton on May 28 [13][14]. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,068 on May 16 to 28,009 on May 28 [9][15]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, showing the trends of harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [23][24]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal decreased, and funds flowed out [9].