三峰环境 20250827 摘要 Q&A 2025 年上半年三峰环境的经营情况如何？ 2025 年上半年，三峰环境的整体生产经营情况稳定良好。公司实现营业收入 28.46 亿元，归母净利润约 6.78 亿元。如果剔除对外转让沉浮公司的影响， 营业收入同比下降 5.6%，归母净利润同口径增长 2.48%。公司控股项目共计 44 个，总产能规模 4.25 万吨，上半年垃圾处理量 773 万吨，同比增长 2.6%。蒸汽销售量同比增长 11.84%，餐厨垃圾处理量增长 16%，污泥处理 量增长近 100%。市场拓展方面，公司中标重庆酉阳县域小型垃圾焚烧供热项 目，并新取得 8 个境外垃圾焚烧及污水处理项目，总处理量 3,000 吨/日。此 外，公司签订了两个蒸汽销售合同，预计新增 4 万吨/年的蒸汽销售量。在建和 筹建项目共计三个，总规模 1,900 吨。在科研创新方面，公司推进 AI 智慧焚 烧技术覆盖，截至半年度末已有 7 个项目实现人工智能辅助自动运行和管控， 下半年预计新增 6 个 AI 辅助焚烧项目。公司在飞灰处置技术方面也取得重要进 公司海外市场重点布局东南亚，包括越南、泰国、马来西亚和印尼，这 些国家将 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns no rating to the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is a clean energy operator with over 20 years of experience, focusing on combined heat and power generation and energy services. The mid-year performance is expected to increase by 20-35% [1][3] - The company has achieved a total installed capacity of 5.9GW, with significant contributions from various energy sources including gas, coal, solar, wind, and storage [1][3] - The company has initiated the issuance of Real World Assets (RWA) in the renewable energy sector, marking a significant innovation in financing [2][3] - The energy services segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues increasing by over 337% year-on-year [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 489 million yuan, down 46% [1][19] - For the first half of 2025, the expected net profit ranges from 493 to 555 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20-35% [1][18] - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 900 million, 983 million, and 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 84%, 9%, and 7% [3][57] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from gas-fired combined heat and power generation is projected to be 5.24 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 53.4% of total revenue [1] - The energy services segment is expected to generate 1.19 billion yuan in 2024, contributing 12.2% to total revenue [1][19] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 10.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 11.3% [4][51] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a joint venture with Ant Group to provide RWA issuance services for distributed energy assets, enhancing its market position [3][49] - The company is focusing on expanding its virtual power plant and energy trading businesses, with a demand response capacity of approximately 500MW [3][49] - The company’s energy service revenue is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for virtual power plants and energy trading [3][50] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 11.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 11.9 billion yuan in 2027 [4][51] - The gross margin is anticipated to stabilize around 27% in the coming years, reflecting operational efficiency [51][52] - The company’s strategic initiatives in RWA and energy services are expected to drive future growth and profitability [2][3][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy (002015) with a target price of 9.18 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 7.30 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit in 2024, primarily due to asset impairment losses and reduced gains from equity disposals. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a strong recovery in revenue and net profit, driven by increased income from distributed photovoltaic and energy storage projects, as well as lower fuel prices [8][9]. - GCL-Poly is focusing on optimizing its asset structure and enhancing its core combined heat and power business while expanding its renewable energy projects. As of Q1 2025, the total installed capacity was 5,978 MW, with renewable energy accounting for 58.23% of total generation capacity [8][9]. - The company is also deepening its energy service offerings, particularly in energy efficiency and trading services, with significant growth in distributed photovoltaic projects and virtual power plant services [8][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024, GCL-Poly reported revenues of 9,796.41 million CNY, a decrease of 3.42% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 489.04 million CNY, down 46.20% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 29.33 million CNY, up 21.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.54 million CNY, up 35.15% year-on-year [3][8]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 823.36 million CNY in 2025, 962.18 million CNY in 2026, and 1,190.87 million CNY in 2027, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 14.4, 12.3, and 10.0 respectively [9][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 1.07% in 2025, followed by 23.21% in 2026 and 26.35% in 2027, with a projected total revenue of 12,199.53 million CNY in 2026 and 15,413.77 million CNY in 2027 [3][9].