Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals do not support a significant increase in the egg market, and external sentiment has a strong influence. The overall supply pressure still exists, but the supply - demand situation is gradually improving. Futures prices are difficult to rise significantly and are mainly for basis repair. [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - Spot prices are mainly stable, in line with expectations; futures are short - term stable and slightly stronger, outperforming spot prices. The basis continues to be weak, but there is an obvious trend of strengthening in the future, with spot prices supporting the futures rebound. [5][8] 2. Spot Market Review - The inventory in the production areas is high, mainly for destocking; the inventory in the external sales is low, and a new round of restocking has begun; the overall prices in the production areas are relatively strong after the festival. [13] 3. Newly Added Stocking - In the first quarter of 2026, the new - added pressure is not large. The utilization rate of hatching eggs is stable and rising at a low level, and the price of chicks has increased significantly, with stocking better than expected. The new - added quantity from November 2025 to April 2026 corresponding to July - December 2025 has decreased year - on - year and has no obvious month - on - month increase. [18][20] 4. Culling - The price of culled chickens has increased, the culling age has slowed down, and the culling has slowed down. The current mainstream culling age is 480 - 490 days, with a cullable quantity of about 100 million. The main contradiction lies in the 350 - 450 - day - old chickens, with a quantity of about 220 million. Profit and loss situation: Profits were made from January to February and briefly in September, with an average of - 0.34 yuan per catty from January to October, and overall no profit. There is a consideration of culling or waiting until the Spring Festival for molting. [21][27] 5. Demand - It is the seasonal consumption off - season, and consumption is slowly recovering. The production areas have high inventory pressure and are actively shipping, and the temperature is suitable for storage. The sales areas have little inventory pressure, and restocking has gradually started. Vegetable prices have fallen due to unstable temperatures, suppressing egg prices, and pork prices are at a low level, also having an obvious suppressing effect on eggs. [36][39] 6. Cost and Profit - The prices of soybean meal and corn continue to strengthen, and the raw material cost is rising steadily. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty. Recently, as the cost side has rebounded and the egg spot price has been stable, the profit has weakened again, and the culling has slowed down. [42] 7. Position and Spread - The position has fallen from a high level, the capital attention has decreased, and short - term contradictions are not obvious. In the short term, the spot price supports the spread to strengthen, but from a cyclical perspective, the spread should continue to be in a reverse arbitrage in the medium - to - long - term. [48][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the egg market was in a trough with high supply and weak demand. Although there were signs of capacity reduction in June, the re - balance of supply and demand still needed time. In the short term, egg prices faced great pressure, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in the third quarter, demand would recover and prices might bottom - out and rebound, though the increase would be limited and the price peak might not exceed last year's level [6][7][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of 2025 Egg Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - In the first half of 2025, the main egg futures contract showed a volatile downward trend, dropping below 3000 yuan in March. There were rebounds in March - April and May - June, but they were limited. As of June 30, the main JD2508 contract closed at 3566 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.68% increase [14] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - The egg spot market in China continued to weaken in the first half of 2025, with prices below the cost line. The average price in the main production areas dropped from 3.23 yuan/jin at the beginning of the year to 2.64 yuan/jin in mid - June, a cumulative decline of 18.3%. As of June 30, it was 2.67 yuan/jin, a 40% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price movement could be divided into three stages: a sharp decline after the Spring Festival, a weak rebound, and an accelerated decline [18] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Laying Hen Inventory - The laying hen inventory remained high in June 2025, at about 1.27 billion. The supply was abundant, and the supply - demand contradiction was intensified by the high mold rate in the rainy season and the low prices of substitutes [21] 3.2.2. Old Hen Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average price of old hens was 5.11 yuan/jin, a 1.73% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. As of June 30, it was 4.64 yuan/jin, a 19.58% decrease from the beginning of the year. The price fluctuated in stages, affected by factors such as egg prices, holidays, and supply - demand imbalances [26][27] 3.2.3. Chick Sales and Price Analysis - In the first half of 2025, chick sales showed a "decrease - increase - decrease" trend, with a monthly average of 423.4 million, a 0.12% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Chick prices first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 4.57 yuan/chick in February and a low of 3.90 yuan/chick in June. The decline was due to factors such as low egg prices, high feed costs, and low replenishment enthusiasm [32][34] 3.2.4. Elimination Progress Analysis - From January to June 2025, the monthly average old hen slaughter volume was 1.9618 million, a 13.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The slaughter volume first decreased and then increased in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter. The average slaughter age was 527 days, a 1.71% increase year - on - year [40] 3.2.5. Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Egg - laying hen breeding has been in a loss state this year. As of now, the breeding cost is 3.53 yuan/jin, and the loss is 0.73 yuan/jin [44] 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis and Inter - Month Spread - No detailed analysis content provided, only data tables such as futures - spot basis and inter - month spread are presented [44] 3.4. Market Outlook - In the short term, egg prices face great pressure. With the arrival of the peak season in the third quarter, demand will recover and prices may rebound, but the increase will be limited [49] 3.5. Operation Strategy - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see due to market uncertainties. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to the marginal changes in capacity reduction and demand recovery in July. If they resonate, a trend rebound may occur [50]