Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current resumption of production on the supply side of rebar continues, and the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. The total inventory and social inventory are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The low inventory and resilient demand support the price. The output increased slightly this week, and the raw material end has strengthened again to support the price. Currently, the macro - expectation of the policy end is loose and positive, providing certain support. The moving average shows that it has re - stood on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, showing a strong trend. Maintain a bullish view [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its positions by 40,973 lots on Thursday, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,026,450 lots. From the perspective of the moving average, it broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,159 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.12% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 93 yuan/ton to the spot price. The basis was still large, providing certain support. Winter stockpiling in the futures market had a certain cost - performance [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 29, the rebar output increased by 0.28 tons week - on - week to 1.9983 million tons, and increased by 221,600 tons year - on - year. The output rebounded slightly this week and increased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting that the steel mills' production resumption momentum accelerated, suppressing the price in the short term. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the capacity recovery can be sustained [2] - Demand side: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal law of construction site shutdown before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the demand recovered year - on - year. As of the week of January 29, the apparent demand data was 1.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 978,500 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared to last year, showing resilience. There was still support from winter stockpiling demand before the festival [2] - Inventory side: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, and the overall inventory was at a low level. As of the week of January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 234,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The social inventory was 3.264 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2388 million tons. The factory inventory was 1.4913 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 150 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 537,200 tons. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was significantly relieved year - on - year, and the social inventory pressure decreased year - on - year, providing support for the price [2][3] Macroeconomic situation - The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macro - economically. The loose cycle provided certain support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a low level in the past three years, the supply side has reduced production due to anti - involution, the production capacity is strictly controlled, the policy supports the demand, the demand will recover marginally after the Spring Festival, and the macro - expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, the inventory removal speed slows down, the blast furnace production resumption accelerates, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, the export is restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the rebar market, suggesting that buying on dips is relatively safe [5]. Report's Core View - Currently, the seasonal decline in rebar demand is evident, but there is potential for demand to be boosted by the warming sentiment of winter storage. Production continues to rise but remains relatively low compared to recent years. Anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, the market enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and the subsequent inventory accumulation situation needs attention. The raw material cost is relatively strong, with coke enterprises resisting price cuts. The real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract increased its open interest by 3,518 lots, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (764,719 lots). The price fluctuated throughout the day, briefly rising above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,152 yuan/ton, a high of 3,175 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar remained stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 138 yuan/ton to the spot price. The relatively large basis provided some support, and winter storage in the futures market was considered cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, but was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal production was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly production of rebar was still low compared to recent years [2]. - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent consumption had declined for three consecutive weeks. Future focus should be on the start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory began to accumulate. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to build up after nine consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4]. Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions. There are also incentives to acquire existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although the incremental demand is relatively limited from a macro perspective, the loose policy cycle provides some support, and the upper limit of demand determines the pressure [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [5]. - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5].