证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（1222-0109）：两重两新提前批 下达，费率新规正式稿落地 宏观基调：2026 年"两重"项目、"两新"资金陆续下达 （1）两会：全国政协十四届四次会议将于 2026 年 3 月 4 日在北京召开。十四 届全国人大四次会议将于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开。 （2）两新：近期已向地方提前下达 2026 年第一批 625 亿元超长期特别国债支 持消费品以旧换新资金计划，规模较 25 年有所收窄。 （3）两重：发改委下达 2026 年提前批"两重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投 资计划，共计约 2950 亿元。"两重"建设共安排约 2200 亿元，中央预算内投 资安排超过 750 亿元。 财政政策：确保必要的财政支出强度，关键期限国债发行规模放量 （1）政策基调：2026 年延续积极定调，确保必要支出强度，优化政府债券工 具组合。 （2）财政审计：7 省已偿还违规新增的政府隐性债务 33.42 亿元；9 个地区国 企违规归集的涉农贷款已归还 18.48 亿元；2 省 2 个地区已实质性化解政府债 务 1.7 亿元。 （3）国债发行：2026 年 1 月关 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [6] Core Viewpoints - New home transaction area has seen a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 21.5% [6] - The transaction area for second-hand homes has turned negative month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9%, although the decline has also narrowed compared to the previous week [6] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a de-stocking cycle of 16.2 months, which is a decrease of 1.6 months month-on-month but an increase of 4.3 months year-on-year [6] - The land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in price, with a total land transaction area of 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year, while the average floor price has increased by 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [6] - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector has decreased significantly, with a total issuance of 1.96 billion yuan, down 68.5% month-on-month and 20.2% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 281.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [17][26] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,398 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.0% [42][43] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities is 126.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [49][57] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities is 4,375 million square meters, down 15.4% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year [63][64] - The total land transaction price is 111.36 billion yuan, down 14.1% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [68][89] - The average floor price of land is 2,545.5 yuan per square meter, up 1.6% month-on-month and 9.5% year-on-year [63][68] 3. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Finance has announced a new policy reducing the value-added tax rate on personal sales of housing from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026 [2][97] - The central bank has indicated a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and improving financial conditions [97]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 5 日 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 05合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 5-9月差 | | 4805 | 4500 | -305 | -134 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 节后受周末市场影响，交投气氛表现平淡，市场报价维持坚挺，各方略显观望，终端刚需少量采购，华 东地区 PVC 现货五型库提价格在 4480-4580 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4650 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即使存在部分装置检修和降负，其规模也有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临 高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].

根据全国财政工作会议，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。 一是 扩大财政支出盘子， 确保必要支出力度。 二是 优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。 三是 提高转移支付 资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。 四是 持续优化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。 五是 加 强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 明年财政将促进居民就业增收 根据全国财政工作会议，2026年，将进一步强化保基本、兜底线，切实加强民生保障。明年 将促进居民就业增收： 统筹就业补助资金、失业保险基金等各类资金，引导支持企业稳岗扩 岗、重点群体就业创业等；积极发挥税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节作用，多渠道增加居民 收入。 近期，多部门召开工作会议，梳理总结2025年工作，研究部署2026年重点任 务。2026年收入、消费、住房、生育等方面将有哪些变化，一起来看—— 明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策 明年继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新 根据全国财政工作会议，2026年，财政将大力提振消费。 深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续 安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 根据全国发展和改革工作会议， 2026年， 优化实施消费品以旧换新政策，积极扩大服 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 铜：美元持续回落，价格上涨 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，全国住房城乡建设工作会议：2026 年着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优 供给，进一步发挥房地产项目"白名单"制度作用，加快构建房地产发展新模式。（华尔街见闻） 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | | 93,930 | -0.41% | 94890 | 1.02% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | | 12,055 | 1.21% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 沪铜指数 | | 260,740 | -144,031 | 635,670 | -9,850 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | | 26,306 | 10,441 | 342,000 | -2,837 | | 昨日期货库存 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国三季度实际GDP大幅增长 4.3%，创两年内最快增速，因家庭消费支出强劲，但美国PCE物价指数年化季环比 2.9%，持平预期但 高于前值2.6%，对美联储未来降息预期有一定抑制作用。但特朗普称，望下一任美联储主席在经济和 市场表现良好时降息，而不是因通胀担忧提前"扼杀行情"，其本人仍敦促降息，在美联储主席人选上或 有倾向性。国内方面，全国住房城乡建设工作会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场。消息面，据Mysteel， 12月19日中国铜冶炼厂代表与Antofagasta 敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/ 磅。库存方面，LME库存增加825吨至158575吨；Comex库存增加3879吨至427435吨；SHFE铜仓单增加 1001吨至49543吨，BC铜仓单维持1053吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以 刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债呵护下，宏观维系偏暖氛围，宽松叙事结构下铜保持偏强走势，另外 也包含了对明年经济增速继续修复 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | | | No. of the Real Pro- | | of the first of the results of | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3025.6 | 0.24% | 0.64% | 2.25% | 1.22% | 12.98 | | | 中证500期货 | 7133.2 | 0.14% | 110% | 4.88% | -2.16% | 25.30 | | | 中证1000期货 | 7197.4 | -0.09% | 0.78% | 2.44% | -2.82% | 23.06 | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.526 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.44 | | | 5年期国债期货 | 106.025 | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.26% | 0.48% | -0.48 | | | 10年期国债期货 | 108.22 | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.2 ...

首席点评： 贵金属续创新高，新能源延续强势 总书记对央企强调，充分认识职责使命，更好服务党和国家工作大局。全国住房城乡建设工作会议： 2026 年着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给。北京发放国内首批 L3 级高速公路自 动驾驶车辆专用号牌。美国三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3% 创两年最快增速，核心 PCE 增 2.9% ； 10 月 耐用品订单环比下降 2.2% 、远逊预期。 12 月消费者信心连降五个月。 ADP 周均私人就业连续三周正 增长。金银铜继续创历史新高，伦铜史上首次涨破 1.2 万美元；美国继续发力切断委内瑞拉石油贸易， 原油五连阳，五日涨近 6% 。 重点品种： 贵金属，原油，碳酸锂 贵金属 ： 国际黄金突破 4500 美元，白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7% ，低于预期的 3.1% ，核心 CPI 同比 2.6% ，低于预期的 3% 。 CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为 降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率 上行至 4.6% 。疲软的就业数据支持美联储继 ...