1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - RB2601 and HC2601 are expected to first decline and then rise, with limited room for further decline. Due to coal supply guarantees, iron ore price stabilization, and the expectation of supply - demand balance after the accumulation of production - cut effects [6][7][8]. - J2601 and JM2601 are expected to fluctuate weakly. Affected by coal supply guarantees, increased coal inventories, and potential oversupply, they face downward pressure [6][9][10]. - I2601 is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. Although the demand side is weak, the decline in coking coal prices eases the pressure on iron ore, and the technical support provides some support for prices [11][12][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendation | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2601 | 3053 | First decline then rise | Coal - coking concessions, stabilized iron ore prices, relatively resistant steel prices, declining five - major steel products output, accelerated destocking of steel social inventory, weak seasonal demand, and the expectation of supply - demand balance [6] | | | HC2601 | 3256 | First decline then rise | Similar to RB2601 [6] | | | J2601 | 1669.5 | Fluctuate weakly | Coal supply guarantees, rising port coke inventory, increased Mongolian coal customs clearance, increased coking coal inventory in coking plants and ports, and the 1 - month delivery contract [6] | | | JM2601 | 1192 | Fluctuate weakly | Similar to J2601 [6] | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2601 | 772.5 | Narrow - range fluctuation | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments to ports, decline in the output and apparent demand of five - major steel products, recovery of daily hot - metal output, repair of steel mill profits, and the first shipment of Simandou iron ore [6] | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On November 14, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets turned stable with a slight increase [13]. - **Blast Furnace and Output**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel increased [13]. - **Hot - Metal and Electric Furnace**: The daily average hot - metal output and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased [17]. - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased [21]. - **Downstream Demand**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased, while automobile and metal - cutting machine tool production increased [21]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the loss of rebar 2601 contract disk profit narrowed [24]. - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit**: The loss of long - process and short - process steel mills' spot rebar gross profit showed different trends [29]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to first decline then rise, with limited downward space. It is advisable to consider buying for hedging or investment after mid - November when the basis is large [31][32]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 40 yuan/ton [34][36]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The price of major coke spot markets turned stable after rising for two weeks, and the price of major coking coal markets continued to rise in some markets [38]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased, while those of 247 steel enterprises increased [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Coke port inventory increased, steel enterprise coke inventory decreased, coking plant coke inventory decreased, and the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises continued to lose money [41]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily average output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines increased, the fine - coal inventory decreased slightly, and the raw - coal inventory increased [41]. - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, coking coal imports decreased. On November 14, port coking coal inventory decreased, coking plant coking coal inventory decreased slightly, and steel enterprise coking coal inventory increased [46]. - **Raw Coal and Coke Output**: From January to October, raw coal and coke output increased [46]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations Coke and coking coal futures still need to digest the strong negative news. It is advisable to try the strategy of selling at high prices for hedging or investment [51][52]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of November 13, the 62% Platts iron ore index declined. On November 14, the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the spreads between different ore types changed [53]. - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: On November 14, the inventory of 45 ports increased, the average daily unloading volume increased, the inventory available days of steel mills remained unchanged, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased [57]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of November 7, Australian and Brazilian shipments and port arrivals decreased. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks decreased, and the arrival volume is expected to be high first and then low [57]. - **Domestic Mine Output and Capacity Utilization**: From January to September, domestic iron ore output decreased. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased, and the overall output is expected to be stable with a slight increase [66]. - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot - Metal Cost**: As of November 13, the 5 - day moving average of the port iron ore transaction volume decreased. As of November 14, the average hot - metal cost of sample steel mills increased [68]. - **Hot - Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 14, the daily average hot - metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace operation rate of 247 sample steel mills changed. The hot - metal output increased after six weeks of decline due to the repair of steel enterprise profits [71]. - **Five - Major Steel Products Output and Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the actual output, consumption, and inventory of five - major steel products decreased. The output decline of rebar was greater [73]. - **Transportation Cost**: As of November 12, major iron ore freight prices decreased. As of November 13, the Baltic Dry Index increased, and the Cape - size freight index decreased [79]. 3.4.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is advisable to consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy. It is necessary to observe whether steel enterprise profits continue to improve [83][84]. - **Basis**: As of November 14, the basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on October 22, 2025, including the expected performance of stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and commodity futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has no specific information to provide [7]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials and had a phone call with the Dutch economic minister, discussing issues such as export controls and the global supply chain [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table for foreign - funded enterprises, emphasizing the importance of export controls and the stability of the global supply chain [7]. - In the first three quarters, domestic tourism increased by 18% in terms of the number of travelers and 11.5% in terms of spending [8]. - European leaders support a cease - fire negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kōichi Kanasugi, is considering a supplementary budget to address rising prices [8]. - The net financial assets of EU member states have declined [8]. - On October 21, precious metals tumbled, oil prices rose, London base metals mostly increased, the yuan strengthened against the dollar, and the dollar index rose [8][9][10]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On October 21, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed an upward trend, but failed to break through key resistance levels [11][12]. - The A - share market rose strongly on October 21, with over 4600 stocks rising, and the trading volume increased [13]. - Hong Kong stocks rose on October 21, while US stocks were mixed, and European stocks rose slightly [14][15]. - From April to September, investor leverage increased by 32.4%, which may be a risky entry point [15]. - It is expected that in October 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM will have a wide - range and mostly weak oscillation. On October 22, they will oscillate and consolidate [15][17]. Bond Futures - On October 21, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures had a slight upward trend, with the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations and a net capital injection [34]. - It is expected that on October 22, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures will have a wide - range oscillation [36][40]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 21, the gold futures rose during the day but fell sharply at night. It is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly and break new highs, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [40][41][42]. - On October 21, the silver futures rose during the day but fell at night. It is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly and break new highs, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [49][50]. Commodity Futures - On October 21, copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [53]. - On October 21, aluminum futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [59][60]. - On October 21, alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [63]. - On October 21, rebar futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate widely, and on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [67]. - On October 21, hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [70]. - On October 21, iron ore futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate widely, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [74]. - On October 21, coking coal futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [78][79]. - On October 21, glass futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate widely [82]. - On October 21, soda ash futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [86]. - On October 21, crude oil futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [90]. - On October 21, PTA futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [95][96]. - On October 21, methanol futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [98]. - On October 21, soybean meal futures fell slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [101].