螺纹 2601
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宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年12月1日)-20251201
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are all "shock - strong", with the core logic being that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - strong", and the overall view reference is "shock - strong". The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock. The calculation of price increase and decrease amplitude is based on specific rules [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures prices have strengthened, driving the spot price of steel to rise over the weekend, but the trading volume is average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed much. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and supply has shrunk again, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand is weakly stable. Weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly, and high - frequency daily trading volume has stabilized, both at low levels in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and subsequent demand will seasonally decline, dragging down steel prices. Although market sentiment has warmed up due to the approaching major meeting, driving steel prices to rebound from lows, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, the upward driving force is questionable, and the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20251124
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 03:03
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the steel price will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is weakly oscillating, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Construction steel mills have resumed production, supply has increased again, and the high inventory pressure has not been relieved. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the sustainability is doubtful. The current performance of major downstream industries is weak, and the subsequent demand will decline seasonally, continuing to drag down the steel price [2].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年11月18日)-20251118
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, with the short - term, medium - term trend being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price is under pressure, but is supported by low valuation and cost. The subsequent trend depends on the demand performance [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price continues to oscillate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up and ferrous metals have rebounded collectively, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Although rebar production has continued to decline, the inventory level is high and the sustainability is questionable, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited [2]. - Rebar demand is poor, with high - frequency indicators remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price [2]. - The supply of rebar has shrunk to a low level, but demand is weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positives are the low valuation and cost support [2].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年10月27日)-20251027
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a stable and fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2] - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and fluctuating with a slight upward bias respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the intraday view is fluctuating with a slight upward bias. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that market sentiment has improved and steel prices have stabilized after fluctuations [1] Market Driving Logic - After the China - US trade negotiation was completed, market sentiment improved, and steel spot prices rose slightly over the weekend. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed much. The weekly output of rebar has rebounded from a low level, but the inventory is high, so the supply positive effect is limited [2] - Rebar demand has continued to improve, but high - frequency indicators are still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream has not improved, so the peak season is expected to be lackluster [2] - Currently, the seasonal increase in rebar demand is accompanied by an increase in supply. Under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals have not improved, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains, so steel prices are still under pressure [2]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20251020
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 01:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2601 is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the game between expectation and reality, with the steel price oscillating at a low level [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Sino - US agreement on a new round of economic and trade consultations and the approaching of major meetings have warmed the market sentiment, driving the night - session futures price and weekend spot price to stabilize at a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although supply has shrunk, the high inventory weakens the positive effect. Demand has recovered as expected after the festival, but the downstream situation has not improved, and the subsequent improvement strength is questionable. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved under the situation of weak supply and demand, with large pressure on inventory reduction, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support [2]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250904
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 00:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line and the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions and the weakening of steel prices under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weak. The rebar production has increased month - on - month and reached the annual high, increasing the supply pressure. Although the demand has improved, high - frequency indicators are still at the low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is questionable. With supply rising and demand remaining low, industrial contradictions are accumulating, the low - inventory pattern has changed, and the steel price is under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increase and peak - season expectations [2]