投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面在走弱，淡季钢价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳为主，成交偏弱，而螺纹钢供需格局偏弱运行，库存开始增加，建筑钢 厂复产，螺纹供应持续回升且后续存有增量空间，低供应格局在变，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现低迷，高频需求指标继续位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未改善，后续将延续季节 性弱势，继而拖累 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 现实格局偏弱，淡季钢价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，建筑钢厂开始复产，产量持续回升但增幅有限，仍位于相对低位， 低供应给予钢价支撑，但回升预期未变，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求偏弱运行，高频需 求指标再度回落，继续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，仍易承压 钢价。总之，螺纹钢供应 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices are expected to continue a weak and volatile trend [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively, with an overall view of "weakly volatile". The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weakening. Rebar production has dropped significantly to a new low this year, providing some support for steel prices, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be monitored. Demand is also weakening seasonally, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are all expected to be volatile, with an overall view of being weakly volatile. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The production of rebar has dropped significantly, and the supply has reached a low level, supporting steel prices, but the improvement of short - process steel mill profits needs to be tracked. The demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the downstream industry has not improved. Although the market sentiment is warm due to the approaching major meeting, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, and the subsequent trend will continue to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile, with an overall view of being weakly volatile. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. The calculation of the rise - fall range is based on the closing price of the night session (for varieties with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for varieties without night sessions) as the starting price and the day - session closing price as the ending price. The definitions of weak, weakly volatile, strongly volatile, and strong are based on the rise - fall percentage [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The production of rebar has dropped significantly, and the supply has reached a low level, which supports steel prices. However, the improvement of short - process steel mill profits needs to be tracked. The demand for rebar continues to weaken, high - frequency indicators are running weakly at a low level, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Due to the approaching major meeting, the market sentiment is warm, and steel prices have stabilized in a volatile manner. But the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, and the upward driving force is questionable. The subsequent trend will continue to be volatile, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the steel price will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is weakly oscillating, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Construction steel mills have resumed production, supply has increased again, and the high inventory pressure has not been relieved. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the sustainability is doubtful. The current performance of major downstream industries is weak, and the subsequent demand will decline seasonally, continuing to drag down the steel price [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak and oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also weak and oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Supply has continuously shrunk to a relatively low level, but inventory is high, and the motivation for production reduction during the peak season is weak, so the positive effect is limited. Demand is weak due to holiday factors, and the downstream has not improved. The peak - season performance needs to be tracked. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions in the rebar industry have accumulated, and the pressure of inventory reduction is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Varieties Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, in the short - term (within one week), it is expected to be weak and oscillating; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is expected to be oscillating; and intraday, it is also expected to be weak and oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern putting pressure on steel prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. Supply has shrunk to a low level, but high inventory and weak production - reduction motivation in the peak season limit the positive effect. Demand is weak due to holidays, the downstream has not improved, and the peak - season performance needs to be tracked. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions have accumulated, and the pressure of inventory reduction is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and cost support is a positive factor. With the game between long and short factors, steel prices are expected to oscillate to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking, and rebar may enter a range-bound consolidation. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading on the RB2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand for rebar has declined, inventory has increased, and steel prices have faced downward pressure. It is suggested to buy slightly out-of-the-money put options [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton (-153), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3390 yuan/ton (-100) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 211.06 million tons (-0.9) [7]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 203.41 million tons (-13.17), a year - on - year decrease of 12.21 million tons [7]. - Factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory rose. The total rebar inventory was 546.29 million tons (+7.65), a year - on - year decrease of 196.08 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management [9]. - Supply and demand: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% and an electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate of 74.21% for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand was average, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased [9]. - Cost: Coking coal prices fluctuated from continuous limit - up to limit - down, and iron ore prices declined, weakening cost support [9]. - Technical: The RB2510 contract decreased in volume, with the daily K - line testing the support around MA20 (3200). The MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red bar shrank [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices were under pressure and weakened this week. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, with a spread of - 54 yuan/ton on the 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [11][15]. - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On August 1st, the warehouse receipt volume was 85034 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2993 tons; the net short position was 84955 contracts, an increase of 93791 contracts from the previous week [17][21]. - Spot prices decreased this week, and the basis strengthened. On August 1st, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar was 3390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The basis on the 1st was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton [23][27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, while that of coke increased. On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore in Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - class metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [29][33]. - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased this period, and port inventory decreased. From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports was 2319.7 million tons, a decrease of 192.1 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14222.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173.67 million tons [35][38]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory declined. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13%); coke daily output was 51.83 (-0.09), and coke inventory was 46.52 (-3.6) [40][42]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [44][46]. - The weekly rebar production decreased. On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises on July 31st was 211.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from last week [47][49]. - The electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate increased. On August 1st, the average start - up rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 74.21%, a 2.18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [50][52]. - The total rebar inventory increased. On July 31st, the in - factory inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 162.15 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from last week; the inventory in 35 major cities was 384.14 million tons, an increase of 11.17 million tons from last week [53][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - From January to June 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year [56][58]. 3.5 Options Market - In the consumer off - season, the apparent demand for rebar declined, inventory increased, and steel prices faced downward pressure. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with attention on the pressure at the MA20 line due to the weak and stable fundamentals and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is acceptable thanks to the demand recovery, but the demand is facing seasonal weakness. Under high supply, the fundamental contradictions of rebar will accumulate, and steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The low inventory is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable operation of the fundamentals and the low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The spot steel prices declined slightly over the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is acceptable due to demand recovery, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Under high supply, fundamental contradictions will accumulate, and steel prices are under pressure. The low inventory is a positive factor. Steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and the low - level shock of steel prices [2]. - Due to continuous production - restriction disturbances, the supply of rebar is weakly stable with a slight decline in weekly output, while the weekly apparent demand has decreased, and the improvement of the fundamentals has not continued. With overseas risks remaining, steel prices are under pressure and continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The view reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable supply - demand pattern and the low - level shock of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Production - restriction disturbances lead to intensified fluctuations in steel prices. The supply of rebar is weakly stable with a slight decline in weekly output, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased. The improvement of the fundamentals has not continued, and overseas risks remain. Steel prices are under pressure and continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].