Group 1 - The securities sector continues to experience a pullback, with the securities ETF (512880) dropping nearly 1% today, but there has been a net inflow of over 8 billion yuan in the last 10 days and over 11 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days [1] - Shanxi Securities indicates that due to the recovery of market sentiment and increased trading activity, the performance of listed securities firms is expected to rebound in the first half of 2025, with major firms showing stable performance and some smaller firms exhibiting strong elasticity [1] - A total of 42 listed securities firms achieved a combined operating income of 251.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.37%, and a combined net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.08%, with annualized ROE rising by 2.63 percentage points to 8.05% [1] Group 2 - As market sentiment continues to improve, trading activity has significantly increased, with transaction volumes and margin financing balances rising, providing stable support for the growth of securities firms' performance in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market activity has significantly increased since the beginning of the year, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, marking a return of positive market sentiment after three years [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Activity - Overall market sentiment has undergone a notable transformation since the beginning of the year, with expectations for active stock capital markets, merger and acquisition (M&A) markets, and bond capital markets from now until next year [3]. - The current market momentum is primarily driven by the technology sector, with industrial technology and medical technology identified as key focus areas, alongside signs of recovery in the financial services sector [3]. Group 2: Japan Market Insights - The Japanese market is currently experiencing heightened activity, with corporate reforms translating into increased M&A activity, and financial investment institutions actively seizing opportunities [3]. - There is a growing optimism regarding the Japanese market as reforms continue, despite the economy showing moderate growth, indicating clear signs of a turning point that has significantly improved market sentiment [3]. - A comprehensive recovery in transaction activities across major industries is anticipated from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a clear correction trend from August 11 to August 15, with the ChiNext Index rising the most at 8.58%, and the ChiNext 50 increasing by 9.90, indicating continued attractiveness in the growth sector after a short-term adjustment [2] - The major indices performed as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, briefly surpassing the 3700-point mark, while the Wind first-level average increase was 2.03% with 89% of the Wind 100 concept index recording gains [2] - Sector performance was mixed, with telecommunications, electronics, and non-bank financials performing well, increasing by 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively, while textiles, steel, and banking sectors weakened, declining by 1.37%, 2.04%, and 3.19% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, and 3 bond funds, with a total issuance of 9.946 billion units [16] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.83% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.82% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.85% [8] - The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [8] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed divergence, with developed markets like the US maintaining upward momentum supported by resilient tech earnings and policy expectations, while emerging markets displayed greater elasticity, particularly in Vietnam and Russia [4] - The energy sector experienced increased volatility, with oil and gas prices affected by supply-demand rebalancing and geopolitical risks, while metal prices remained resilient due to new energy demand and supply disruptions [4] Domestic Bond Market Review - The national bond futures index (CFFEX 10-year) fell by 0.29%, and the 30-year national bond futures main contract dropped by 1.48%, indicating significant downward pressure on long-term interest rates [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a strong and volatile trend, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. At present, the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are mainly operating stably, and the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong operation, with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short - term price of iron ore will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand for iron ore, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Guangzhou will implement the "commercial - to - public loan" policy to boost the real estate market. When the personal housing loan ratio of housing provident fund is lower than 75%, the commercial - to - public loan will be launched; when the loan ratio reaches 85% or above, preventive measures can be taken; when the loan ratio reaches 90% or above, it will be suspended [6]. - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June increased by 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month, and the cumulative wholesale sales from January to June were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Australian mining company Fenix Resources officially launched the mining of the Beebyn - W11 iron ore project. The project has a designed annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons and is expected to achieve the first shipment of iron ore in the third quarter of 2025, which will increase the company's total iron ore production capacity to 4 million tons per year [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,120, 3,160, and 3,244 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250, 3,140, and 3,252 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100. The volume - spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130, and the volume - spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 724, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 690, the sea freight from Australia was 7.04 and from Brazil was 18.93, the SGX swap (current month) was 95.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.10 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,076, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,086, the lowest price was 3,050, the trading volume was 1,776,150, the volume difference was - 595,134, the open interest was 2,237,249, and the open - interest difference was 10,870 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,208, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,217, the lowest price was 3,175, the trading volume was 694,556, the volume difference was - 225,872, the open interest was 1,595,284, and the open - interest difference was - 474 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 733.0, with a daily increase of 2.45%, the highest price was 736.5, the lowest price was 721.5, the trading volume was 452,146, the volume difference was 2,895, the open interest was 639,417, and the open - interest difference was - 8,458 [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production conditions (including 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation) [13][18][28] Market Outlook - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides have increased. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply and demand sides are operating stably. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [38]. - For iron ore, the demand shows good resilience, and the short - term price will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.57%. With supply and demand both weakening, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%. The supply is increasing while the demand is weakly stable, and the price is expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term due to improved market sentiment, also focusing on demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.86%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken, but the price may oscillate strongly in the short term supported by the logic of narrowing the discount, focusing on the change in molten iron [4]. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - The global manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The US manufacturing PMI continued to decline [6]. - In May, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly average working hours of excavators were 72.6 hours, and the monthly starting rate was 61% [7]. - On June 3, 2025, Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation into hot - rolled coils imported from China [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts index [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 2,975 with a 0.57% increase, the hot - rolled coil at 3,092 with a 0.55% increase, and the iron ore at 707.5 with a 0.86% increase [13]. Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, 45 - port iron ore, etc.), steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [15][20][29]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output decreased by 7.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 19.65 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 9.20 tons, while the demand is weakly stable, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 6.01 tons. The price is expected to oscillate and stabilize, paying attention to demand [40]. - Iron ore: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term, focusing on the change in molten iron [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly. Although the weekly output decreased slightly, it remains at a high level for the year. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.32%. Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level for the year, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices are expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate at a low level [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 1.29%. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. At the same time, port arrivals have increased slightly, and overseas miners' shipments remain high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority [8]. - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales volume of refrigeration and air - conditioning valves reached 19.915 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - Fortescue postponed the full - production time of its Iron Bridge Magnetite Project to the 2028 fiscal year. The annual shipment volume is expected to be 10 - 12 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 16 - 20 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and reach the full - load capacity of 22 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,090, 3,160, and 3,230 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,150, and 3,270 respectively. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 737 [11]. 3. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,978 | 0.47 | 1,945,056 | 611,105 | 2,377,320 | - 64,068 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,110 | 0.32 | 809,980 | 357,449 | 1,552,234 | 15,120 | | Iron Ore | 707.0 | 1.29 | 504,680 | 217,338 | 716,254 | - 5,254 | [13] 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including the opening rate of electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of arc - furnace steel mills [15][29] 5. Future Market Judgment - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Supply has slightly contracted but the reduction is unlikely to be sustainable. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices will continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom [37]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. Supply pressure remains high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices will fluctuate at a low level [39]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.23%. Supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices remain under pressure, but due to positive market sentiment, the short - term trend will be a volatile rebound. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was strong with a daily increase of 1.27%. Supply is at a high level with relatively large pressure, and demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, overseas risks have eased, market sentiment has warmed up, and in the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore continued to rise with a daily increase of 2.43%. Supported by the repair of the discount due to improved market sentiment, the price is strong in the short - term. But ore demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and the fundamentals are likely to weaken. Be cautious about bullishness at high levels [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva, both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also took corresponding actions. China's counter - measures against the US over fentanyl remain effective [6]. - Xinyang will implement spot - house sales for newly - developed commercial housing on newly - transferred land. The measure is for public consultation from May 6 to May 15, 2025 [7]. - In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 220,500 tons (a 0.2% daily increase). Pig iron output was 19.9 million tons, with an average daily output of 199,000 tons (a 1.6% daily increase). Steel output was 20.83 million tons, with an average daily output of 208,300 tons (an 8.4% daily decrease) [7]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, etc., and their price changes are presented, along with the prices and changes of iron ore - related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, etc. [8] 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore are shown. For example, the rebar main contract closed at 3,127 with a 1.23% increase, trading volume of 2,134,942, and a decrease in open interest of 39,651 [10]. 4. Related Charts - Include price trend charts of steel and iron ore, inventory charts of steel and iron ore (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore at 45 ports), and charts related to steel mill production (such as blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making steel mill ratio) [8][9][12] 5.后市研判 - For rebar, supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices are under pressure, but short - term trend is a volatile rebound due to positive market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and fundamentals are weak. Prices are under pressure, but short - term prices will oscillate strongly due to improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and fundamentals are likely to weaken. Although the short - term trend is strong, be cautious about bullishness at high levels [38].

期货热点追踪 市场情绪回暖，集运欧线大幅高开，而贵金属期货大幅低开，沪金期货失守770关口，后续价格走势如 何？ 相关链接 ...