本轮行情之强劲或许在不少投资者意料之外。就在昨天，沪指盘中突破2021年3731.69点的高点，创下十 年新高。 股指势如破竹，好奇也随之而来，如果说"众人拾柴火焰高"，那么这一轮的行情中，不同参与者的参与程 度又如何？又或者说，谁才是这一次的主力？ 国金证券的宏观报告将市场资金分为国家队、机构、散户、外资这四类，并指出这四者的参与情况大相径 庭。报告用"意料中的缺席"来形容"国家队"的动作，中央汇金公司的国有资金主要持有沪深300、上证 50、中证500等宽基ETF，但今年5月以来，宽基类ETF持续净流出，而表征市场资金的行业类ETF则在7月 迎来持续净流入。机构方面，报告的总结是"公募加仓动力有限，保险资金稳步入市"。因为结合2025年公 募二季报数据，主动偏股型公募基金A股股票仓位占比71.4%，过去一年继续下降了3.8个百分点，目前资 产净值为3.4万亿，是过去20个季度以来的新低。此外，虽然财产险和人身险公司新增持有股票与证券投 资基金规模创2022年三季度以来新高，但险资入市整体而言是个长期变量。 相比之下，散户的参与度更高。一方面是中小投资者开户数量有所回升，升至近三年来60%分位数水平以 上。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally is driven by the rising sentiment among retail investors and the return of foreign capital, with insurance funds providing long-term support. The sustainability of this trend depends on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity environment under a weak dollar [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the A-share market experienced a "bottom-up" bull market atmosphere, with the ChiNext Index rising over 8% for the month and daily trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets frequently exceeding 1.5 trillion [4]. - The improvement in market sentiment is attributed to the easing of Sino-U.S. relations and tariff issues, along with the maturation of TACO trading and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have provided support for dollar liquidity [4]. Group 2: Types of Market Participants National Team - The central government’s capital, represented by Central Huijin Investment, has been absent from the market, with net outflows from broad-based ETFs since May, while industry-specific ETFs saw sustained inflows in July [5]. Institutions - Institutional "super large orders" have seen continuous net outflows since July, indicating limited motivation for public funds to increase positions. The average daily trading volume in key sectors like technology, finance, and consumption has been rising [5][6]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, the equity position of actively managed public funds in A-shares is at 71.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points over the past year, with total net assets at 3.4 trillion, the lowest in 20 quarters [5]. Retail Investors - Retail investors have emerged as the main source of incremental funds during the July bull market, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching 1.96 million, above the 60th percentile level over the past three years [7]. - The net inflow of small orders (below 40,000 yuan) increased by 39% month-on-month in July, and the total trading volume on the A-share "Dragon and Tiger List" rose by 7.5% compared to June [7][8]. Foreign Capital - Foreign capital has shown signs of recovery, with average daily trading volume of northbound funds increasing by 36.3% in July compared to June, marking the first time since the "924 market" that both daily trading volume and market share have risen simultaneously [8][9]. - The net inflow of ETFs focused on investing in China reached $199 million in the past month, surpassing the total for the previous three months and accounting for 47% of last year's total net inflow [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of the A-share and H-share market rally will depend on the progress of household financial management migration and the global liquidity released by a weak dollar [9].