美银证券发布研报称，将香港交易所(00388)港股2025至2027年日均成交额预测由2,400亿、2,600亿及 2,600亿港元，上调至2,600亿、2,700亿及2,700亿港元，但基于低利率环境，将净投资收入预测下调5至 7%，同时将盈利预测上调1至2%，维持520港元目标价不变，重申"买入"评级。 该行预期港交所今年首三季盈利将达129亿港元，同比增长39%。今年第三季日均成交金额为2,860亿港 元，创历史新高。不过，该行预期港交所净投资收入将受期内港元拆息波动影响。虽然港元拆息已于第 二季回落，但对净投资收入的滞后影响可能到第三季才浮现，而且随着拆息于8至9月反弹，料有关影响 会于第四季消退。 美银证券又提到，预期港交所2026至2027年盈利增长，将由2025年的24%放缓至8%，除非总市值显著 提高，否则单靠成交额增长难以推动收入，并预期衍生产品将成为关键增长引擎。另外，该行料香港 IPO与沪深交易所的竞争可能加剧，因内地更重视新科技板块，或透过激励政策将重点企业留在境内上 市。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited reported a revenue and other income of HKD 14.076 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 8.519 billion, up 39% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at HKD 6.74 [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue and other income amounted to HKD 7.219 billion, a 33% increase compared to Q2 2024, while profit attributable to shareholders rose 41% to HKD 4.442 billion [1][3] Group 2: Market Activity - The average daily turnover in the cash market reached HKD 240.2 billion in the first half of 2025, more than double that of the first half of 2024 [2] - The average daily contract volume in the derivatives market increased by 11% year-on-year to 1.7 million contracts [2] - The fundraising amount in the Hong Kong IPO market surged to over eight times that of the first half of 2024, reclaiming the top position globally [2] Group 3: Operational Insights - Operating expenses increased by 6% compared to the first half of 2024, primarily due to non-recurring fines and legal fees related to the 2022 nickel market incident [3] - In Q2 2025, the average daily turnover in the cash market continued its strong momentum, achieving a record of HKD 237.7 billion [3] - The company plans to implement several strategic initiatives in the second half of 2025 to enhance market competitiveness, including shortening the settlement cycle and expanding paperless listing mechanisms [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has established itself as a vital international financial center, celebrating its 25th anniversary with significant growth in market metrics and a commitment to connecting China with global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Performance - Since its inception, HKEX has transformed from a local exchange to a leading global market operator, with average daily trading volume exceeding HKD 240 billion in 2023, a more than 17-fold increase from HKD 13 billion in 2000 [1]. - The derivatives market has seen even more remarkable growth, with average daily trading volume reaching 1.76 million contracts in 2023, compared to just 37,500 contracts in 2000 [1]. - The new stock market remains active, with HKEX completing 31 IPOs in 2023, raising over HKD 88.4 billion, solidifying its position as the world's leading fundraising market [2]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Dividends - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong stock market surged from HKD 3.92 trillion in March 2022 to HKD 40.93 trillion by May 2025, representing an increase of over 9 times [2]. - Total dividends distributed by Hong Kong-listed companies increased from HKD 907 million in 2000 to over HKD 13.5 trillion in 2024, marking a growth of more than 10 times [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - HKEX has played a crucial role in facilitating the listing of mainland companies, attracting trillions in capital and enhancing the connectivity between the mainland and international markets [3][4]. - The exchange has implemented various reforms, including the introduction of the Stock Connect program, which has expanded to include bonds, ETFs, and interest rate swaps, with plans for further enhancements [5]. - HKEX aims to continue improving its market appeal and competitiveness, focusing on optimizing infrastructure and expanding its product offerings to support quality enterprises globally [5].