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香港交易所(0388.HK):市场热度仍处高位 IPO大幅回暖贡献业绩增量
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 18:29
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in May, with active trading and positive growth expectations for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's (HKEX) earnings [1][2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 16.1% and 15.7% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The monthly average daily turnover (ADT) for HKEX was HKD 210.3 billion, down 23.4% month-on-month but up 50.4% year-on-year [1] - The monthly ADT for the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect was HKD 906.13 billion, down 6.9% month-on-month but up 22.4% year-on-year [1] - The monthly ADT for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 147.42 billion, down 22.9% month-on-month but up 50.1% year-on-year [1] Derivatives and Commodity Markets - In the derivatives market, both futures and options trading volumes decreased month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 586,000 contracts, down 30.3% month-on-month and 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The ADV for options was 805,000 contracts, down 19.8% month-on-month and 23.7% year-on-year [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decrease in trading volume, with a daily average of 707,000 contracts, down 19.7% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year [1] IPO Market - The Hong Kong IPO market experienced significant growth, with 10 new listings in May totaling HKD 55.8 billion, representing increases of 1830.4% month-on-month and 3150.6% year-on-year [1] Investment Income - Investment income rates for HKEX showed a decline month-on-month and year-on-year as of the end of May [1] - The 6-month HIBOR was 2.16%, down 1.86 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The 1-month HIBOR was 0.59%, down 3.37 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.89 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The overnight HIBOR was 0.03%, down 4.47 percentage points month-on-month and down 4.44 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The US overnight bank funding rate was 4.33%, unchanged month-on-month [1] Macroeconomic Environment - Domestic economic conditions showed signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.50%, up 0.50 percentage points month-on-month [1] - New orders and new export orders indices were at 49.8% and 47.5%, respectively, with increases of 0.60 percentage points and 2.80 percentage points month-on-month [1] - The manufacturing production index was at 50.7%, up 0.90 percentage points month-on-month [1] - Internationally, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with expectations for rate cuts being postponed [1][2] Investment Outlook - As of the end of May, the company's PE ratio was 35.45x, positioned at the 44th percentile historically since 2016, indicating potential value for investment [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 29.8 billion, HKD 31.0 billion, and HKD 32.5 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of HKD 17.9 billion, HKD 18.6 billion, and HKD 19.6 billion respectively [2] - Corresponding PE valuations are projected to be 29.2x, 28.0x, and 26.6x for the same period, suggesting a "buy" rating [2]