Core Insights - The overall recovery of actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the last bull market peak. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, targeting around 3800 points [9][32][40] - Among the 3 trillion new funds, the thematic funds have a scale of 500 billion, with consumption funds at 40%, manufacturing funds at 31%, and pharmaceutical funds at 19%. The new funds have faced greater pressure, with an overall recovery to an average of 94% of the initial net value, while the pharmaceutical funds have returned to positive, consumption funds at 82%, and manufacturing funds at 88% [9][46] - The asset allocation of Chinese residents is primarily concentrated in housing and stocks, with the adjustments in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years being the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets is crucial for improving residents' income [9][10][22] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and the enhancement of property income. The current recovery of the 3 trillion new funds reflects the significant impact of this bull market on the repair of residents' balance sheets [10][23] Fund Performance Analysis - The performance of old funds has been significantly lower than that of new funds, with old funds showing an average net value return of -12%, while new funds have achieved an average return of 2%. The disparity in returns is primarily due to the higher base of net value calculations for old funds [38][40] - As of August 6, 2025, the overall average return of new and old funds has improved by 25 percentage points since the low in January 2024, with old funds recovering by 20 percentage points and new funds by 29 percentage points [40][41] - The analysis of thematic funds indicates that the performance of new funds in thematic sectors has been under pressure, with the average net value return for thematic funds in old funds at -17% and for new funds at -6% [46][51] Market Dynamics - The stock market's role as a vehicle for excess savings is emphasized, with the potential for an influx of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market if it returns to the average ratio of the past five years [10][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, which has been a focus since September 2024, aiming to restore residents' balance sheets and enhance property income [10][22] - The recovery of residents' financial confidence is evident, with personal housing loan balances showing a positive trend after a period of decline, indicating a shift back to an expansion state for residents' balance sheets [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last month, most of the market's major index valuations were adjusted downward. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio, the historical percentile of the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 dropped to 4.5% and 44.4% respectively. In terms of price - to - book ratio, only the Sci - Tech Innovation 50's valuation percentile increased to 36.1%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, only 4 industries rose [1]. - In April, 76 new funds were issued with a scale of 583.80 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was cold, while the issuance share of passive equity funds increased slightly. Only commodity funds and pure - bond funds rose, with growth rates of 4.53% and 0.52% respectively. Growth style underperformed value style, and large - cap style was inferior to small - cap style. The position of active equity funds on April 30, 2025 was 81.17%, a decrease of 0.69pct from the previous month [2]. - In the ETF market, equity ETFs had the highest net inflow, reaching 18.2928 billion yuan. Most broad - based indexes had large net inflows, and some ETFs had significant gains or losses [3]. - In April, the risk - parity model dropped 0.09%, and the risk - budget model dropped 0.61% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Month's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In April, the major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fluctuated and retreated. The ChiNext Index fell by more than 7%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 had the smallest decline of 1.01%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, only 4 industries rose, while the top 5 decliners were electrical equipment, communication, household appliances, computer, and electronics. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.95%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.31%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 5.01% [12]. 1.2欧美及亚太市场情况 - In April, the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.22%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.85%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 fell 2.53%, and the German DAX rose 1.50%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index fell 4.33%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 1.20% [17]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - Last month, most of the market's major index valuations were adjusted downward. The historical percentile of the ChiNext Index and CSI 300's price - to - earnings ratio dropped by 11.5pct and 8.0pct respectively. Only the Sci - Tech Innovation 50's price - to - book ratio percentile increased by 0.2pct to 36.1%. The industries with the highest historical percentile of price - to - earnings ratio were real estate, steel, building materials, automobiles, and commercial trade, while those with the lowest were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, non - ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and electrical equipment [20]. 2. Overall Situation of Public Funds 2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In April, 76 new funds were issued with a scale of 583.80 billion yuan. Among them, 6 active equity funds were issued with a scale of 14.76 billion yuan, and 53 index funds were issued with a scale of 282.19 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was cold, while the issuance share of passive equity funds increased slightly [2][28]. 2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In April, only commodity funds and pure - bond funds rose, with growth rates of 4.53% and 0.52% respectively. The pure - bond funds had the highest positive - return ratio of 98.30%. Growth style underperformed value style, and large - cap style was inferior to small - cap style. Generally, small - cap growth style was relatively resistant to decline, while large - cap growth style had the largest decline. Larger - scale funds in the equity market generally performed better [2][35]. 2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - The position of active equity funds on April 30, 2025 was 81.17%, a decrease of 0.69pct from the previous month [40]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - Equity ETFs had the highest net inflow, reaching 18.2928 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 258.712 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 163.29 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.72%. Most broad - based indexes had large net inflows. Some ETFs had significant gains or losses, and there were differences in capital inflows and outflows among different ETFs [3][44]. 4. Model Operation Situation - In April, the risk - parity model dropped 0.09%, and the risk - budget model dropped 0.61%. Since 2015, the risk - parity model has had an annualized return of 4.46% and a maximum drawdown of 2.31%; the risk - budget model has had an annualized return of 3.99% and a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset - allocation weights of the models remain unchanged [4][55].